2K14: Billy Hamilton

[virgonomic]

All of the following player hitting UNDER .200: Trumbo, Peralta, Aybar, Fielder, Swisher, Sandoval, Craig, Headley, Pedro Alverez, Butler, Seager, Bruce, Granderson, Lawrie, and the list goes on and on.

Point is that it's early, and for some reason, people seem to like to pick on Hamilton as not being worthy of a big league spot. Eleven pages so far devoted to the kid...let's see where he is at the end of May.

Hamilton, unlike the others, has not shown that he can hit major league pitching.

[Hornsby]

maybe people are looking at more relevant stats like OPS, where Hamilton ranks behind 12 of the 14 guys on your list. you cherry-picked Hamilton's least-awful category, obviously. and given that Hamilton's OBP last year in AAA was .308, almost by your own definition it sounds like he'll need at least a year there to "adjust." nothing in his stats suggests he can just skip that higher grade. A to High A doesn't count.

Why would you care about slugging percentage when the guys has made a career out of using nothing but speed, it simply makes no sense. It's like slagging Adam Dunn for not stealing enough bases...the comparison is apples and anvils. It was comparing Batting Average among other big leaguers who are struggling, so it wasn't cherry picking his least awful category. The OPB was in response to RSF, who suggested that Hamilton had done little as a hitter in the minors. I disagreed an posted his career OBP numbers, which is the relevant category for a speedy lead-off hitter.

As far as him making the adjustment, that's where we'll see...it's never been about the ability to steal bags. He's still on pace to steal over 50...it's up to him to hit/walk enough to get there.

[Hornsby]

Hamilton, unlike the others, has not shown that he can hit major league pitching.

And we make that judgement based on 70 AB's?

[Moonlight J]

And we make that judgement based on 70 AB's?

seems appropriate - http://www.fangraphs.com/library/pri...s/sample-size/

[Judge Jude]

I disagreed an posted his career OBP numbers, which is the relevant category for a speedy lead-off hitter.

As far as him making the adjustment, that's where we'll see...it's never been about the ability to steal bags. He's still on pace to steal over 50...it's up to him to hit/walk enough to get there.

a .308 OBP last year in the minors is far more relevant than previous seasons at lower levels, of course.

again, you're making a decent argument that if he can improve to a .400 OBP in 2014 in AAA, then he might do well as a MLBer in 2015 or 2016. But let's see him do it first (and yes, I expect he'll get that chance, if the Reds have any brains).

And stealing bases is a poor correlator to winning baseball games anyway.

sure, it SOUNDS good, the idea that the fast guy will distract the pitcher and make it easier on the hitter, and all that. but I don't know of a study that has ever actually demonstrated that actually happens - or more specifically, that a team with fast guys really wins any more games than one that doesn't have them.

[Hornsby]

seems appropriate - http://www.fangraphs.com/library/pri...s/sample-size/

So in other words, we need to see at LEAST 910 AB's before we decide that he can't hit? Got it...thanks for posting that.

910 AB: AVG
460 PA: OBP
320 AB: SLG
160 AB: ISO

[Mithrandir]

Did anyone else see the piece last night on MLB Tonight that showed the time it took for Dee, Trout and Hamilton to steal 2nd base...from their initial break off of first base to the time their hand hits the second base bag?

Dee - 3.07 seconds
Hamilton - 3.10
Trout - 3.11

Surprised that Trout is that close to the other two. I knew he was fast, but not in the Hamilton category.

[virgonomic]

And we make that judgement based on 70 AB's?

As fantasy owners, yes.

As a big league manager, probably not, but they are not going to keep him up if he's hitting .200 in June.

[RSF]

It's not a comparison, Abreu is simply on a list of other MLB players who are hitting .200 or under, some well under. And NONE of them are getting the attention and criticism that Hamilton has.

As far as Hamilton's minor league stats, he's a career .350 OPB guy, and that includes his "down" year at AAA ball. Nothing in his stats suggest that he won't be an impact offensive player once he adjusts.

That you put them in the same list is a comparison; I just don't agree it made sense given what they do as players. Also, looking at BA alone is really not how anyone in MLB looks at players anymore, so it's an odd choice to make as a metric anyway.

Hamilton has put up OBPs in the minors that depend on a .370+ BABIP. While speed guys certainly can keep up that kind of a number, it is a poor percentage bet (though, to be clear, it COULD happen given his skillset). He also has the problem that extreme low ISO guys (which he is) are unusually likely to have more problems as they face better pitching because their weakness as hitters (hard stuff in the zone) is more likely to be seen. Joey Gathright is one example of this, though not a perfect comp. Again, Hamilton could overcome these things but expecting him to hit right away was not very realistic, and his 2013 AAA numbers did not suggest he was at all ready for this jump. That was my point.

[Hornsby]

As fantasy owners, yes.

As a big league manager, probably not, but they are not going to keep him up if he's hitting .200 in June.

IMO, even in fantasy, you should never make your decision based on such a small sample size. To pick up a player? Sure...take Colabello for example, grab him, ride the train, and dump him when he falls off. Nothing lost. But a slow start? Should I dump Granderson, Hicks, or headley based on their slow starts? Have Grandy and Headley hit the wall at their age? Is Hicks really overmatched in the bigs to the point where he's worth nothing anymore?

I'm a practitioner of patience...I've got a 6 week window that I give before I decide what to do with anyone on my roster. I've seen far too many players get hot when the weather warms up...again, just my own theory of running a team. Yours may be totally different, and as, or more, successful.

[Hornsby]

That you put them in the same list is a comparison; I just don't agree it made sense given what they do as players. Also, looking at BA alone is really not how anyone in MLB looks at players anymore, so it's an odd choice to make as a metric anyway.

Hamilton has put up OBPs in the minors that depend on a .370+ BABIP. While speed guys certainly can keep up that kind of a number, it is a poor percentage bet (though, to be clear, it COULD happen given his skillset). He also has the problem that extreme low ISO guys (which he is) are unusually likely to have more problems as they face better pitching because their weakness as hitters (hard stuff in the zone) is more likely to be seen. Joey Gathright is one example of this, though not a perfect comp. Again, Hamilton could overcome these things but expecting him to hit right away was not very realistic, and his 2013 AAA numbers did not suggest he was at all ready for this jump. That was my point.

Understood, and I don't disagree totally with it, but I also look deeper into the AAA stint, where it shows a rollercoaster ride. Horrible April, Hot May, fall off in June, good July, fall off in August, and hot September in a short sample size. To me, it shows that he's got the ability to do well, but he needs to show the consistency. It's not lack of ability, IMO, it's lack of experience...and the Reds chose to let him leans at the major league level.

I think that the Reds are committed to running him out there day after day, and it'll take his staying well under a .200 average to merit being sent down.

[Big Tymer]

Hitting .279 since his 0-12 start fwiw

[cavebird]

IMO, even in fantasy, you should never make your decision based on such a small sample size. To pick up a player? Sure...take Colabello for example, grab him, ride the train, and dump him when he falls off. Nothing lost. But a slow start? Should I dump Granderson, Hicks, or headley based on their slow starts? Have Grandy and Headley hit the wall at their age? Is Hicks really overmatched in the bigs to the point where he's worth nothing anymore?

I'm a practitioner of patience...I've got a 6 week window that I give before I decide what to do with anyone on my roster. I've seen far too many players get hot when the weather warms up...again, just my own theory of running a team. Yours may be totally different, and as, or more, successful.

Hicks may well be a bust. That being said, nothing wrong with patience. The strange thing is the way that the Reds just gave him the job without a suitable back up in case he didn't succeed. Nothing to do with fantasy. Given his speed, he belongs active in a fantasy lineup unless and/or until he is optioned. Just very weird roster management by the Reds.

[james33]

IMO, even in fantasy, you should never make your decision based on such a small sample size. To pick up a player? Sure...take Colabello for example, grab him, ride the train, and dump him when he falls off. Nothing lost. But a slow start? Should I dump Granderson, Hicks, or headley based on their slow starts? Have Grandy and Headley hit the wall at their age?

To me, it isn't about fantasy owners overreacting to small sample sizes. Rather, it is fantasy owners' perfectly rational fear that major league GMs will overreact to small sample sizes.

So I see these situations as totally different. If Grandy or Headley have a bad start, they are established big leaguers. The odds of a major league GM seeing a bad April and sending them to the minors are quite low. So as a fantasy owner, I agree with you, no reason to do anything.

But if Billy Hamilton ends April sub-.200 and the Reds are struggling, then there is a chance - not a 100% chance, not even a 50% chance, but still a chance, maybe 25%? - that the Reds brass would say "You know, we probably rushed him; he could use another year in the minors." Then they try a more established player at CF. They don't have much; that certainly works in Hamilton's favor.

I wouldn't dump Hamilton. But in a redraft league, would I trade him for a guy who went $2-$3 less than he did at experts' auctions? Yes.

[Sam]

Can anyone explain this - Hamilton apparently went 1st to 3rd on a groundout to the pitcher! Maybe he was in motion on a steal?

Francisco Liriano pitching for Pittsburgh
B Hamilton hit by pitch.
J Votto grounded out to pitcher, B Hamilton to third.