2K14: Billy Hamilton

[cavebird]

Schumaker, along with seven (!) other Reds, is on the DL to start the year. I think it would be Heisey if Hamilton doesn't pull it together soon. Then again, Hamilton is the Anointed One, so he'll get many more chances than an average guy. Heisey is an adequate CF in my opinion but better suited to the corners, and he had his big chance last year when Ludwick got hurt on Opening Day and really screwed the pooch.

One e-mail I got from a friend who went to the game said that Hamilton appeared to have a game plan of "swing and hope" all day, and he felt Hamilton will calm down by the next game.

Listening to local sports talk radio earlier tonight, it's classic one-game overreaction from the Reds fans. They always invest SOOO much emotion in Opening Day and get so giddy when they win or so despondent when they lose it. I keep telling them that it's ONE GAME, but they get so flustered that they go into Motorboat Mode, "but...but...but..."

That all being said, Hamilton is fast, but I think it could screw him; he's been promoted way before his bat is ready because: (1) minor league defenses aren't that good so he gets a lot more hits with his legs than he will in the majors; and (2) he keeps setting records for steals which get him promoted before he should be. He can be a solid major-leaguer and fantasy absolute stud with just a little bit of bat, but I haven't seen anything that says he is ready for a major league job other than what he had last September: basically Charlie O'Finley's designated runner.

[Hornsby]

That all being said, Hamilton is fast, but I think it could screw him; he's been promoted way before his bat is ready because: (1) minor league defenses aren't that good so he gets a lot more hits with his legs than he will in the majors; and (2) he keeps setting records for steals which get him promoted before he should be. He can be a solid major-leaguer and fantasy absolute stud with just a little bit of bat, but I haven't seen anything that says he is ready for a major league job other than what he had last September: basically Charlie O'Finley's designated runner.

Can't agree with this at all...the kid paid his dues in the minors with over 2200 plate appearances over 5 seasons. He's got a pretty good batting eye with a .350 OBP, and he's a little more than a Ben Revere with a bit of pop in in bat on rare occasions. And by all reports he's worked hard to turn himself into a pretty decent defensive player as well. I think that once the jitters settle down, he'll be just fine. I wish that I owned him in ANY league,

[ThatRogue]

Can't agree with this at all...the kid paid his dues in the minors with over 2200 plate appearances over 5 seasons. He's got a pretty good batting eye with a .350 OBP, and he's a little more than a Ben Revere with a bit of pop in in bat on rare occasions. And by all reports he's worked hard to turn himself into a pretty decent defensive player as well. I think that once the jitters settle down, he'll be just fine. I wish that I owned him in ANY league,

After yesterday's performance (and a few more like it), you might be able to make that wish happen relatively cheaply. If this continues, I imagine that someone in contention might consider swapping Hamilton for someone like Revere...and you might want to plant those seeds ASAP (if you truly believe he will be a 60+ SB/100+ Runs type of player).

[Hornsby]

After yesterday's performance (and a few more like it), you might be able to make that wish happen relatively cheaply. If this continues, I imagine that someone in contention might consider swapping Hamilton for someone like Revere...and you might want to plant those seeds ASAP (if you truly believe he will be a 60+ SB/100+ Runs type of player).

I'll jump on him if someone sours on him, but I doubt that'll happen. The 1st two steal day will make everyone happy they own him.

[Gregg]

Absolutely agree. It's hard for me to remember a more overhyped player than Hamilton in recent years. Maybe Delmon Young? Hamilton hasn't shown me anything besides the ability to steal bases. While that's pretty exciting for roto purposes, it's decidedly less valuable for real baseball purposes. I think what we saw last year in AAA (.258/.308/.343) is what this kid really is when he's exposed to anything but sub-par competition. I wouldn't be surprised at all if he gets demoted within two months.

Yeah, but he might have 30sbs by then.

[james33]

Absolutely agree. It's hard for me to remember a more overhyped player than Hamilton in recent years. Maybe Delmon Young? Hamilton hasn't shown me anything besides the ability to steal bases. While that's pretty exciting for roto purposes, it's decidedly less valuable for real baseball purposes. I think what we saw last year in AAA (.258/.308/.343) is what this kid really is when he's exposed to anything but sub-par competition. I wouldn't be surprised at all if he gets demoted within two months.

That's the crazy thing about owning him - this wouldn't surprise me at all either. But it also wouldn't surprise me at all to see him finish the year in the bigs with 650 PAs, a .240 BA, and 80 SB. So which scenario plays out, which is more likely? For this year only, in a redraft league, I'd absolutely rather have the near sure thing of Ben Revere. But for a keeper league, the Hamilton potential is too enticing to trade for cheap.

[Gregg]

That's the crazy thing about owning him - this wouldn't surprise me at all either. But it also wouldn't surprise me at all to see him finish the year in the bigs with 650 PAs, a .240 BA, and 80 SB. So which scenario plays out, which is more likely? For this year only, in a redraft league, I'd absolutely rather have the near sure thing of Ben Revere. But for a keeper league, the Hamilton potential is too enticing to trade for cheap.

Oh, I don't think you havd to trade him cheap (yet). You could probably get some good stuff for him if you shopped him in the next week or so.

[james33]

Oh, I don't think you havd to trade him cheap (yet). You could probably get some good stuff for him if you shopped him in the next week or so.

I should've clarified that in a 12 team NL-only redraft league, I'd slightly rather have Revere than Hamilton. A near sure thing to hit ok and steal 35-40 bases vs. a potential 80+ SB season or a potential nothing. But in a keeper league or in something like a 15 team Mixed League, I'd much much much rather have Hamilton

[Gregg]

I should've clarified that in a 12 team NL-only redraft league, I'd slightly rather have Revere than Hamilton. A near sure thing to hit ok and steal 35-40 bases vs. a potential 80+ SB season or a potential nothing. But in a keeper league or in something like a 15 team Mixed League, I'd much much much rather have Hamilton

I understood. I am saying that in a keeper league you can get a haul early if you have doubts about him. If he tanks and get's sent down, not so much.

[cavebird]

Can't agree with this at all...the kid paid his dues in the minors with over 2200 plate appearances over 5 seasons. He's got a pretty good batting eye with a .350 OBP, and he's a little more than a Ben Revere with a bit of pop in in bat on rare occasions. And by all reports he's worked hard to turn himself into a pretty decent defensive player as well. I think that once the jitters settle down, he'll be just fine. I wish that I owned him in ANY league,

As a guy drafted out of high school, five years isn't that long in the minors. How many other guys do you know who have been basically given a starting job in the majors after playing a full season at AAA and posting a .651 OPS? Translate that to the majors, and you are looking at an OPS under .600. How long can the Reds live with that? His defense has seemed fine after they gave up on him as a shortstop, but you have to hit more than that, even with speed.

[Hornsby]

As a guy drafted out of high school, five years isn't that long in the minors. How many other guys do you know who have been basically given a starting job in the majors after playing a full season at AAA and posting a .651 OPS? Translate that to the majors, and you are looking at an OPS under .600. How long can the Reds live with that? His defense has seemed fine after they gave up on him as a shortstop, but you have to hit more than that, even with speed.

5 years is plenty long, and a full season at AAA is also plenty of time. In fact, there are organizations that prefer that their better prospects make the jump with as little AAA experience as possible. I've read that there's a belief that sometimes expose to the older guys in AAA isn't all that beneficial, and might be actually be detrimental to their development. Ben Revere, who seems to be the guy that people point to as to what Hamilton SHOULD hope to be, has a career OPS of .655. It's not all that important to a guy like Hamilton...would more power be nice? sure, but it's the OBP that matters with a player like him. And as long as Hamilton has an OBP north of .325 or so, he'll have a full time job for as long as he can run.

[cavebird]

5 years is plenty long, and a full season at AAA is also plenty of time. In fact, there are organizations that prefer that their better prospects make the jump with as little AAA experience as possible. I've read that there's a belief that sometimes expose to the older guys in AAA isn't all that beneficial, and might be actually be detrimental to their development. Ben Revere, who seems to be the guy that people point to as to what Hamilton SHOULD hope to be, has a career OPS of .655. It's not all that important to a guy like Hamilton...would more power be nice? sure, but it's the OBP that matters with a player like him. And as long as Hamilton has an OBP north of .325 or so, he'll have a full time job for as long as he can run.

If he's around .325, he's Vince Coleman; great for fantasy, not so great for real baseball. If he can get to .350, then he's a seriously good offensive weapon. But if he only OBP's .308 in AAA last year, how much can we realistically expect in the majors?

[Hornsby]

If he's around .325, he's Vince Coleman; great for fantasy, not so great for real baseball. If he can get to .350, then he's a seriously good offensive weapon. But if he only OBP's .308 in AAA last year, how much can we realistically expect in the majors?

Hard to say...his minor league career average was right at .350, including the 2012 season where he was over .400, a Votto like number. So he certainly knows how to take a walk, it just remains to be seen how long it'll take him to do so in the majors.

[cavebird]

Uh, the competition those "good" numbers were against was absolutely nothing like major league competition. Look what happened when he faced the AAAA guys --- .308 OBP. His "career" numbers are meaningless.

I think that's only fair to a point. The good numbers against AA pitching are relatively legit, but a pretty small sample size, only 50 games and 213 plate appearances. Below AA, it is hard to say it shows much other than he deserved the promotion to AA.

[Hornsby]

Uh, the competition those "good" numbers were against was absolutely nothing like major league competition. Look what happened when he faced the AAAA guys --- .308 OBP. His "career" numbers are meaningless.

No shit sherlock...it's a learning curve, and the numbers aren't meaningless. You go up a step at a time and it take the vast majority of players time to adjust to the competition. Who's the consensus best player in the game now, Mike Trout, correct? Well, his 1st call-up he hit .220 with a .281 OBP in 40 games. The point is that simply that the same thing may happen to Hamilton, but his track record in the minors suggests that he'll eventually make the adjustment and compete at the major league level. Now, is it possible that he doesn't? Sure, but there's NOTHING in his history that says that he won't eventually adjust.