Latest expert mock draft results

[Todd Zola]

Sorry, I think Aybar will EARN single digits in mixed leagues with 12-15 teams.

[Todd Zola]

you guys are forgetting a key fact, lawr smokes a lot of weed, and those are strong words coming from me....

for medicinal purposes only!!!!!

[Fresno Bob]

for medicinal purposes only!!!!!

I use it for the pain of being a man....

[BigJonEmpire]

Aside from the fact I am twice as big as most of you guys, when I drink the regular stuff, I think my teeth are going to crack it is so sweet.

They don't call me BIG jon for nothing.

[Todd Zola]

They don't call me BIG jon for nothing.

I did say MOST

[revo]

It's February 13. Players have not even showed up at Spring Training, and yet someone is (or may be, we don't know for sure) drafting a player almost 90% higher than his ADP due to expected value based upon an increase in plate appearances due to lineup order.

Aybar had about 2/3rds of his plate appearances come from the 1st or 2nd spot in the lineup last season, with the remainder being bottom of the order. The Angels added so many players this season that if they end up displacing some of the lesser types in their lineup such as Callaspo with better bats like Trumbo and Kendrys, then those non-major run producers like Kendrick will appear to be better fits atop the lineup than in the 8th or 9th hole. And since you're using the defense of "an increase in plate appearances," how many more PAs can he actually get, since he's already up there most of the time?

Aybar, for his career, also has about a .325 OBP as a table setter. You also have an emerging star in Peter Bourjos, who may be better suited for the top of the order. So one can just as easily argue that Aybar is far from an ideal leadoff man on a team with many options for the top 2 lineup spots.

In any case, there are certainly many more questions one could pose about the fickleness of the manager's batting order -- especially for a non-elite leadoff hitter -- then one can for using a player's historical stats to potentially see a power spike or a change in the player's BA, ERA or WHIP.

This is certainly not meant as a smack at any of Aybar's defenders here, but he's been dropped from the two hole to the eight hole with the promotion of Trout. He also hasn't hit a lick, so it's certainly possible he won't return to the top half of the order this season.

I'm all for upgrading a player's expected stats based on playing time, but I'll never upgrade/downgrade a player solely on lineup order. Way too fickle and it has little to do with a player's ability.