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**chancellor** · 02-12-2012, 02:10 PM

You took CC Sabathia over David Price?!?

Why, you...you fantasy baseball whore, you!

I like Yunel Escobar a lot more than Sean Rodriguez

**Moonlight J** · 02-12-2012, 03:00 PM

Originally posted by chancellor View Post

You took CC Sabathia over David Price?!?

Why, you...you fantasy baseball whore, you!

I like Yunel Escobar a lot more than Sean Rodriguez

Yunel is empty average. Rodriguez will have more HRs & SBs this season. He's my sleeper 15/15+ candidate

**onejayhawk** · 02-12-2012, 03:07 PM

What was it like drafting just after then just before Paul?

J

**DJBeasties** · 02-12-2012, 03:52 PM

Originally posted by Moonlight J View Post

Yunel is empty average. Rodriguez will have more HRs & SBs this season. He's my sleeper 15/15+ candidate

Isn't S. Rodriguez going to be a platoon hitter? He can't hit RHP. You think he can hit 15 HRs in 350 ABs? That would be impressive mashing against lefties. I would bet on 10/20...

I like Mesoraco and Prado is good where you got him. Also like Corey Hart and Pineda will get you 15 wins. Prince scares me. I can't buy that high on a guy is so inconsistent year to year.

**Hornsby** · 02-12-2012, 03:54 PM

I assume a 2 catcher league? If so, I like Ericksons picks of Montero and Avila back to back...although I think I would have taken Beltre over Wright.

**revo** · 02-12-2012, 04:27 PM

Ryan Zimmerman is major reach at 24, over Halladay, Wright & Beltre.

Also, is Lawr Michaels related to Erick Aybar? Because taking him at #81 is lunacy.

**Moonlight J** · 02-12-2012, 05:23 PM

Originally posted by revo View Post

Ryan Zimmerman is major reach at 24, over Halladay, Wright & Beltre.

Also, is Lawr Michaels related to Erick Aybar? Because taking him at #81 is lunacy.

That one surprised me when it happened. Lawr is a west coast guy that spends a lot of time around AL baseball

**Moonlight J** · 02-12-2012, 05:26 PM

Originally posted by DJBeasties View Post

Isn't S. Rodriguez going to be a platoon hitter? He can't hit RHP. You think he can hit 15 HRs in 350 ABs? That would be impressive mashing against lefties. I would bet on 10/20...

I like Mesoraco and Prado is good where you got him. Also like Corey Hart and Pineda will get you 15 wins. Prince scares me. I can't buy that high on a guy is so inconsistent year to year.

Reid Brignac is awful....they're going to give Rodriguez the chance to fail vs RHP before giving too many PA to Brignac. Look at what Rodriguez did overall the final 2 months of the season compared to 1st 2 months.....lots of positive signs

K% by month:

June - 28
July - 21
August - 17
September - 12

Walk % by month

June - 6
July - 8
August - 10
Sept - 10

**Erik** · 02-13-2012, 07:20 AM

Aybar stole 30 last year and will hit at the top of a lineup in which Pujols will bat third. I can see the case for being high on him this year, though maybe not 81st overall high.

**revo** · 02-13-2012, 10:27 AM

Originally posted by Erik View Post

Aybar stole 30 last year and will hit at the top of a lineup in which Pujols will bat third. I can see the case for being high on him this year, though maybe not 81st overall high.

The Angels are loaded. They have players like Bourjos & Kendrick who could also be table setters, and unless Aybar is cemented into the leadoff spot -- which he is not -- I would never go into a draft using that as gospel and taking him over Papelbon, Adam Jones, Aramis, Bumgarner, etc.

I'm surprised an "expert" would use lineup order to increase/decrease a player's value, since that is a fool's game.

**Todd Zola** · 02-13-2012, 11:57 AM

In the name of full disclosure, Lawr is my partner at Mastersball, I am not here to defend the pick, there is a reason why he has been deemed The Zen Master, he is the first to admit he dances to his own drummer, doesn't worry about others things and certainly does not crunch numbers, he just takes players he things will give him what he needs.

What I do want to address is

Originally posted by revo View Post

I'm surprised an "expert" would use lineup order to increase/decrease a player's value, since that is a fool's game.

I guess not only am I an "expert", I am also a fool.

A projection is composed of two elements: rate of performance and playing time. I think it is incumbent upon those making projections to give equal attention to both aspects. The difference between hitting first or ninth in an AL lineup over a full season is about 150 plate appearances. That is HUGE.

If you were to call out someone in this mock, and there reasoning was "I think so and so is due for a power spike", you may not agree, but you would at least accept his reasoning.

The same should be true of playing time.

A few years ago, I pegged Brett Gardner as a player to watch because he spent the bulk of the previous year hitting ninth and expected him to see more time at the top, increasing his runs, SB etc. That is nothing different than saying I expect Jay Bruce to increase his HR/FB this season so I predict more HR.

I think you are doing a DISSERVICE if you do not pay heed to a lineup spot.

That said, i only consider it in terms of number of plate appearances. I do not worry about how the runs and RBI may change as they are a team oriented stat and the total number of runs+RBI is likely to be the same, relative to their plate appearances so in a vacuum, their raw value is the same. And if it turns out there is a significant flip flip in runs and RBI, I have a 13 other roster spots to manage to get the roto points I need.

**Goalie** · 02-13-2012, 12:19 PM

Originally posted by Todd Zola View Post

In the name of full disclosure, Lawr is my partner at Mastersball, I am not here to defend the pick, there is a reason why he has been deemed The Zen Master, he is the first to admit he dances to his own drummer, doesn't worry about others things and certainly does not crunch numbers, he just takes players he things will give him what he needs.

What I do want to address is

I guess not only am I an "expert", I am also a fool.

A projection is composed of two elements: rate of performance and playing time. I think it is incumbent upon those making projections to give equal attention to both aspects. The difference between hitting first or ninth in an AL lineup over a full season is about 150 plate appearances. That is HUGE.

If you were to call out someone in this mock, and there reasoning was "I think so and so is due for a power spike", you may not agree, but you would at least accept his reasoning.

The same should be true of playing time.

A few years ago, I pegged Brett Gardner as a player to watch because he spent the bulk of the previous year hitting ninth and expected him to see more time at the top, increasing his runs, SB etc. That is nothing different than saying I expect Jay Bruce to increase his HR/FB this season so I predict more HR.

I think you are doing a DISSERVICE if you do not pay heed to a lineup spot.

That said, i only consider it in terms of number of plate appearances. I do not worry about how the runs and RBI may change as they are a team oriented stat and the total number of runs+RBI is likely to be the same, relative to their plate appearances so in a vacuum, their raw value is the same. And if it turns out there is a significant flip flip in runs and RBI, I have a 13 other roster spots to manage to get the roto points I need.

Very good post... Another thing that I watch for, which I believe someone has posted on the board before, is watching for #8 hitters in the NL. Hitting before a pitcher is never a good production spot...

**revo** · 02-13-2012, 12:52 PM

Originally posted by Todd Zola View Post

In the name of full disclosure, Lawr is my partner at Mastersball, I am not here to defend the pick, there is a reason why he has been deemed The Zen Master, he is the first to admit he dances to his own drummer, doesn't worry about others things and certainly does not crunch numbers, he just takes players he things will give him what he needs.

What I do want to address is

I guess not only am I an "expert", I am also a fool.

A projection is composed of two elements: rate of performance and playing time. I think it is incumbent upon those making projections to give equal attention to both aspects. The difference between hitting first or ninth in an AL lineup over a full season is about 150 plate appearances. That is HUGE.

If you were to call out someone in this mock, and there reasoning was "I think so and so is due for a power spike", you may not agree, but you would at least accept his reasoning.

The same should be true of playing time.

A few years ago, I pegged Brett Gardner as a player to watch because he spent the bulk of the previous year hitting ninth and expected him to see more time at the top, increasing his runs, SB etc. That is nothing different than saying I expect Jay Bruce to increase his HR/FB this season so I predict more HR.

I think you are doing a DISSERVICE if you do not pay heed to a lineup spot.

That said, i only consider it in terms of number of plate appearances. I do not worry about how the runs and RBI may change as they are a team oriented stat and the total number of runs+RBI is likely to be the same, relative to their plate appearances so in a vacuum, their raw value is the same. And if it turns out there is a significant flip flip in runs and RBI, I have a 13 other roster spots to manage to get the roto points I need.

It's February 13. Players have not even showed up at Spring Training, and yet someone is (or may be, we don't know for sure) drafting a player almost 90% higher than his ADP due to expected value based upon an increase in plate appearances due to lineup order.

Aybar had about 2/3rds of his plate appearances come from the 1st or 2nd spot in the lineup last season, with the remainder being bottom of the order. The Angels added so many players this season that if they end up displacing some of the lesser types in their lineup such as Callaspo with better bats like Trumbo and Kendrys, then those non-major run producers like Kendrick will appear to be better fits atop the lineup than in the 8th or 9th hole. And since you're using the defense of "an increase in plate appearances," how many more PAs can he actually get, since he's already up there most of the time?

Aybar, for his career, also has about a .325 OBP as a table setter. You also have an emerging star in Peter Bourjos, who may be better suited for the top of the order. So one can just as easily argue that Aybar is far from an ideal leadoff man on a team with many options for the top 2 lineup spots.

In any case, there are certainly many more questions one could pose about the fickleness of the manager's batting order -- especially for a non-elite leadoff hitter -- then one can for using a player's historical stats to potentially see a power spike or a change in the player's BA, ERA or WHIP.

**Ryno84MVP** · 02-13-2012, 12:55 PM

Originally posted by Todd Zola View Post

In the name of full disclosure, Lawr is my partner at Mastersball, I am not here to defend the pick, there is a reason why he has been deemed The Zen Master, he is the first to admit he dances to his own drummer, doesn't worry about others things and certainly does not crunch numbers, he just takes players he things will give him what he needs.

What I do want to address is

I guess not only am I an "expert", I am also a fool.

A projection is composed of two elements: rate of performance and playing time. I think it is incumbent upon those making projections to give equal attention to both aspects. The difference between hitting first or ninth in an AL lineup over a full season is about 150 plate appearances. That is HUGE.

If you were to call out someone in this mock, and there reasoning was "I think so and so is due for a power spike", you may not agree, but you would at least accept his reasoning.

The same should be true of playing time.

A few years ago, I pegged Brett Gardner as a player to watch because he spent the bulk of the previous year hitting ninth and expected him to see more time at the top, increasing his runs, SB etc. That is nothing different than saying I expect Jay Bruce to increase his HR/FB this season so I predict more HR.

I think you are doing a DISSERVICE if you do not pay heed to a lineup spot.

That said, i only consider it in terms of number of plate appearances. I do not worry about how the runs and RBI may change as they are a team oriented stat and the total number of runs+RBI is likely to be the same, relative to their plate appearances so in a vacuum, their raw value is the same. And if it turns out there is a significant flip flip in runs and RBI, I have a 13 other roster spots to manage to get the roto points I need.

That is all well and good, and he may correctly rate him higher than anyone else, but part of a draft is also knowing how everyone else rates him. It is quite conceivable that he could have gotten him a couple of rounds later and grabbed another player that certainly wouldn't slide.

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