Sorry, I think Aybar will EARN single digits in mixed leagues with 12-15 teams.
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Originally posted by Todd Zola View Postfor medicinal purposes only!!!!!"You know what's wrong with America? If I lovingly tongue a woman's nipple in a movie, it gets an "NC-17" rating, if I chop it off with a machete, it's an "R". That's what's wrong with America, man...."--Dennis Hopper
"One should judge a man mainly from his depravities. Virtues can be faked. Depravities are real." -- Klaus Kinski
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Originally posted by revo View PostIt's February 13. Players have not even showed up at Spring Training, and yet someone is (or may be, we don't know for sure) drafting a player almost 90% higher than his ADP due to expected value based upon an increase in plate appearances due to lineup order.
Aybar had about 2/3rds of his plate appearances come from the 1st or 2nd spot in the lineup last season, with the remainder being bottom of the order. The Angels added so many players this season that if they end up displacing some of the lesser types in their lineup such as Callaspo with better bats like Trumbo and Kendrys, then those non-major run producers like Kendrick will appear to be better fits atop the lineup than in the 8th or 9th hole. And since you're using the defense of "an increase in plate appearances," how many more PAs can he actually get, since he's already up there most of the time?
Aybar, for his career, also has about a .325 OBP as a table setter. You also have an emerging star in Peter Bourjos, who may be better suited for the top of the order. So one can just as easily argue that Aybar is far from an ideal leadoff man on a team with many options for the top 2 lineup spots.
In any case, there are certainly many more questions one could pose about the fickleness of the manager's batting order -- especially for a non-elite leadoff hitter -- then one can for using a player's historical stats to potentially see a power spike or a change in the player's BA, ERA or WHIP.
I'm all for upgrading a player's expected stats based on playing time, but I'll never upgrade/downgrade a player solely on lineup order. Way too fickle and it has little to do with a player's ability.
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