Latest expert mock draft results

[chancellor]

We do have to keep in mind that we never come out of our drafts or auctions with every player we intended on getting. "Experts" are no different than anyone else playing this game. When they post their HDID or here is my team threads they often willingly admit I may have reached for this guy or paid too much for that guy. A few years back I posted that it was poor money management by Shandler to spend something like $18 on Nick Punto and I got blasted for criticizing the legend. But really we all make mistakes, expert or not. Anyhow thanks for posting this Jason it's nice to see what the best in the industry are thinking.

Actually, it was $19, and you and I went after him big time. He left two significant base stealers on the board, and then had to drop $19 for points in steals with Punto. Anytime I see Nick Punto in posts nowadays, I make sure to comment.

[chancellor]

Anyone know a source that shows last year's rankings with dollar values? I can find either, or. Not both.

Todd Zola's work is great. He did a spreadsheet for me based on our league's custom categories that was very helpful.

[DJBeasties]

I still need to subscribe to Mastersball. I am slllllacking.

[DJBeasties]

Shouldn't dollar values dictate the rankings? I have last year's values available in Excel form.

Yes it should. I'm just thinking I have no real feel for where dollar values line up with snake draft rankings. For example, Erick Aybar is in my mind a $17-$22 player. About where does a player of that value go? Obviously not an exact science due to scarcity, league rules and all the other standard caveats but I'm just realizing my penchant and bias to auction leagues really limits my comfort and understanding of snake draft leagues.

[Todd Zola]

Yes it should. I'm just thinking I have no real feel for where dollar values line up with snake draft rankings. For example, Erick Aybar is in my mind a $17-$22 player. About where does a player of that value go? Obviously not an exact science due to scarcity, league rules and all the other standard caveats but I'm just realizing my penchant and bias to auction leagues really limits my comfort and understanding of snake draft leagues.

Dammit, I just posted the "graph of a draft" somewhere....

Once the diet Mt Dew kicks in I'll remember where.

[Todd Zola]

Clipped from a piece I wrote recently----

Here is an outline of the pick values for a typical 15-team draft. The value of the first and last pick of each round is presented; consider this value to be +/- $1.

ROUND FIRST LAST
1 $45 $31
2 $30 $24
3 $24 $21
4 $21 $18
5 $18 $17
6 $17 $16
7 $15 $14
8 $14 $13
9 $13 $12
10 $12 $11
11 $11 $11
12 $10 $10
13 $9 $9
14 $8 $8
15 $9 $9
16 $8 $8
17 $7 $7
18 $6 $6
19 $5 $5
20 $4 $4
21 $3 $3
22 $2 $2
23 $1 $1

[BigJonEmpire]

Dammit, I just posted the "graph of a draft" somewhere....

Once the diet Mt Dew kicks in I'll remember where.

EEWWWwwww, drink the regular stuff! No diet is worth that!

[Mithrandir]

EEWWWwwww, drink the regular stuff! No diet is worth that!

Diet Mt Dew shouldn't even be allowed to be called Mt Dew!!!

[Todd Zola]

Diet Mt Dew shouldn't even be allowed to be called Mt Dew!!!

Aside from the fact I am twice as big as most of you guys, when I drink the regular stuff, I think my teeth are going to crack it is so sweet.

[Mithrandir]

Aside from the fact I am twice as big as most of you guys, when I drink the regular stuff, I think my teeth are going to crack it is so sweet.

I was addicted to Mt Dew for 30 years. I stopped drinking it a few months ago. I love it but it's so unhealthy..12 tsps of sugar in one can!

[DJBeasties]

Thanks, Todd! That is great. And I also like Diet Mountain Dew so I doubly like that response!!

[DJBeasties]

Clipped from a piece I wrote recently----

Here is an outline of the pick values for a typical 15-team draft. The value of the first and last pick of each round is presented; consider this value to be +/- $1.

ROUND FIRST LAST
1 $45 $31
2 $30 $24
3 $24 $21
4 $21 $18
5 $18 $17
6 $17 $16
7 $15 $14
8 $14 $13
9 $13 $12
10 $12 $11
11 $11 $11
12 $10 $10
13 $9 $9
14 $8 $8
15 $9 $9
16 $8 $8
17 $7 $7
18 $6 $6
19 $5 $5
20 $4 $4
21 $3 $3
22 $2 $2
23 $1 $1

Ok, so based on the graph provided above from Todd Zola, a $17-$21 player aligns anywhere from the beginning of the 6th round to the end of the 3rd round (picks 45-76), it is more than reasonable for Lawr Michaels to take Erick Aybar at 81 overall. Now maybe you don't think Aybar will churn out $17-$21 but I think that is a fair range for him. The argument can be made that he could be had later and all that but I'm pretty positive looking at his drafts he subscribes to a process of getting who he wants.

[Todd Zola]

I think $17-$21 might be fair for AL only, but in 13 team mixed, I'd be surprised if he cost double digits

[Fresno Bob]

You guys are forgetting a key fact, Lawr smokes A LOT of weed, and those are strong words coming from me....

[DJBeasties]

I think $17-$21 might be fair for AL only, but in 13 team mixed, I'd be surprised if he cost double digits

But will he be worth $17? If so then 81st overall is probably a wash.