Latest expert mock draft results

[Todd Zola]

To be clear, where and why Lawr drafted Aybar has nothing to do with my playing time comment, which I tried (apparently unsuccessfully) to convey in my post.

I was reacting to the global generalization about it being a fool's game to consider playing time. I disagree with that contention.

Again, I am not justifying Lawr's pick because he has a right to feel Aybar will hit leadoff in front of Pujols, etc. and whether or not he should have waited according to Aybar's market value.

I am saying that in general, be it on Feb 13 or April 1, we need to make our best guess with respect to playing time, based on the info available at that time and incorporate that into our evaluation.

[Todd Zola]

I think it also bears stating that Revo certainly doesn't think that "considering playing time is a fool's game." Hell, the guy writes up one of the best articles we have here on RJ annually --- something like "Increased Playing Time and Breakouts".

Except there is a major difference between a change in lineup order and a guy going from 100 backup PA to 400-600 platoon or regular PA, which is the point of the annual and very useful post. The term "lineup order" was specified and was the crux of my reply, not evaluating a player due to see increased time because of a role change.

However, it IS a fool's game to push Aybar up a gazillion slots because the Angels landed one player and Aybar might hit leadoff. Spring Training hasn't even started.

And the point might be better made if Aybar was in line to gain those 150 plate appearances that you referenced earlier because he's moving from the 8 or 9 hitter to leadoff. But Aybar hit leadoff more than anywhere else last year. He hit in the 2nd spot second most often. What change are we envisioning for Aybar, really? He's already been hitting at the top of the order on a consistent basis.

Again, you are all talking to the wrong person, this is not my fight nor have I ever tried to justify the pick, I apologize if it appears as though this is my intent.

How's this...

I completely agree Lawr overdrafted Aybar based on his market value, regardless of how optimistic he is for his 2012 performance.

[BigJonEmpire]

If you want to be an expert, why would you use the ADP rankings of non-experts as your guide? Experts should establish trends not follow them.

[Moonlight J]

If you want to be an expert, why would you use the ADP rankings of non-experts as your guide? Experts should establish trends not follow them.

[Todd Zola]

perhaps a tad self serving, but here is a piece about this very subject

Mocksterbation

[DJBeasties]

I think Aybar is a $17-$22 guy wherever that falls in snake drafts I'm not sure.

[onejayhawk]

perhaps a tad self serving, but here is a piece about this very subject

Mocksterbation

Hi Todd,

You always said that the last 3rd of the draft is where you won or lost. How did you do this year?

J

[DJBeasties]

Reid Brignac is awful....they're going to give Rodriguez the chance to fail vs RHP before giving too many PA to Brignac. Look at what Rodriguez did overall the final 2 months of the season compared to 1st 2 months.....lots of positive signs

K% by month:

June - 28
July - 21
August - 17
September - 12

Walk % by month

June - 6
July - 8
August - 10
Sept - 10

If he can combine the improved plate approach WITH the power, then we have something but it looks like all he did was be more selective and in turn the juice disappeared. Doesn't matter, you took a flier. We'll see.

[Todd Zola]

Hi Todd,

You always said that the last 3rd of the draft is where you won or lost. How did you do this year?

J

Ask me in October

If you mean this particular mock (still going on by the way, longest mock I have ever had the pleasure of participating in)

13-team, 5x5

R16 - Carlos Lee - others like to take chances, I'll take mine later. Declining but still productive relative to the draft spot
R17 - Marco Scutaro - the move to Colorado doesn't excite me as much as the jump back to the top of the order (tee hee).
R18 - Ted Lilly - another conservative late pick, maybe even the Carlos Lee of starting pitching. Fly balls keep WHIP down, but lead to HR making ERA high - at the end of the day, if his HR are reasonable, he is fine
R19 - Yoenis Cespedes - here's my dice roll, at a point in the draft the spot is fungible, I'll get a reserve OF to hold the fort until (if?) he is ready
R20 - Ryan Raburn - mostly a hope he gets more playing time than in season's past as he gets off to a decent start and holds the keystone position
R21 - Tim Stauffer - we are drafting 7 reserves which to me means if we were playing this out, we could spot start guys in good matchups and Stauffer is perfect for that
R22 - John Buck - he starts and there are a bunch of "won't hurt you" types available still in case his power suddenly disappears
R23 - David Carpenter - with no reserve, I would not have done this as I prefer to roll with 7+2 in a league this shallow, but there will be weeks when the SP matchups are cruddy and it is nice to have a 3rd closer available to get lucky and pick up a save or two. Houston's back end is wide open and my (hypothetical) money is on Carpenter.

All in all, typical of me -- conservative, probably to a fault.

That said, I think I have also matured from using cliche like statements that drafts are won in the last third. Drafts are won with picks 1-23.

[revo]

If you want to be an expert, why would you use the ADP rankings of non-experts as your guide? Experts should establish trends not follow them.

Non-experts likely make up 99.999% of drafters, and also more than likely is your competition.

I suppose however, it wouldn't be a bad idea to gauge it versus the ADP of "experts," if you have that data handy.

[onejayhawk]

Ask me in October

If you mean this particular mock (still going on by the way, longest mock I have ever had the pleasure of participating in: 13-team, 5x5.

I have also matured from using cliche like statements that drafts are won in the last third. Drafts are won with picks 1-23.

This was more specific. You said when you were on your game, it showed in the last third of the draft or auction.

I understood you to mean that, when things were going well, you could anticipate the action to a useful extent.

J

[chancellor]

Yunel is empty average. Rodriguez will have more HRs & SBs this season. He's my sleeper 15/15+ candidate

I'm assuming 5x5 league, so I'll take Yunel's +50 average and +30 runs. I doubt Sean Rodriguez will get to 15 HR being such a cripple against RHPs in addition to his home park being one of the worst for power.

That being said, my least fav pick of yours was Cameron Maybin where he was taken.

[DJBeasties]

I think Aybar is a $17-$22 guy wherever that falls in snake drafts I'm not sure.

Anyone know a source that shows last year's rankings with dollar values? I can find either, or. Not both.

[Todd Zola]

Shouldn't dollar values dictate the rankings? I have last year's values available in Excel form.

[axman]

We do have to keep in mind that we never come out of our drafts or auctions with every player we intended on getting. "Experts" are no different than anyone else playing this game. When they post their HDID or here is my team threads they often willingly admit I may have reached for this guy or paid too much for that guy. A few years back I posted that it was poor money management by Shandler to spend something like $18 on Nick Punto and I got blasted for criticizing the legend. But really we all make mistakes, expert or not. Anyhow thanks for posting this Jason it's nice to see what the best in the industry are thinking.