Is the presidential election a referendum or a choice for you?

[Kevin Seitzer]

Nate Silver has an interesting way of framing the election today over at 538:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/07/sept-6-a-referendum-or-a-choice/

In the referendum paradigm, the election comes down mostly to the performance of the incumbent, especially on economic matters. The identity of the opposition candidate matters relatively little: voters are choosing between “the incumbent” and “not the incumbent,” and if things get bad enough, almost anyone else will do.

In the choice paradigm, voters are more prospective than retrospective, making a decision on who will make the best president over the next four years. They may weigh the policy preferences of the candidates fairly heavily, along with their perceived ideological dispositions. And personality can play a role as well: the “who would you rather have a beer with” view of elections comes out of the choice school.

Obviously, people can be somewhat in both camps, but I'm curious how you view this election as compared to how you viewed the 2008 election.

[joncarlos]

Interesting stuff. I guess for me it is a choice. Unless the right gets a lot less vitriolic, I don't ever see myself picking someone from the GOP as "anyone but X" because of X's past performance.

[onejayhawk]

The old "It's the economy, stupid" argues for elections being a referendum. If so, what will the rising cost of gas do?

J

[Lurker765]

The old "It's the economy, stupid" argues for elections being a referendum. If so, what will the rising cost of gas do?

J

You do realize that the price of gas in Sept 2008 is identical to the price of gas in Sept 2012?

[Long John]

You do realize that the price of gas in Sept 2008 is identical to the price of gas in Sept 2012?

That may be true, but it certainly doesn't feel that way. I'm on the road 3 days a week visiting accounts and I can tell you it definitely feels like gas is costing a lot more than it did 4 years ago.

[Kevin Seitzer]

[dslaw]

If I think the President is doing good I will vote to re-elect him. In 2008 there was no re-election so I had to choose because, whether I liked Bush or not, McCain was not Bush and there was no guarantee he would continue those policies.

[onejayhawk]

You do realize that the price of gas in Sept 2008 is identical to the price of gas in Sept 2012?

Notquite, but that is an interesting point. 2008 has a huge spike, which got almost this high for a short time. Here is inflation adjusted data.

08/29/2008 1.2483 3.9757
09/10/2008 1.2471 3.9721
09/29/2008 1.2992 4.1379
10/19/2008 1.1652 3.7111

03/29/2012 1.2976 4.1329
04/11/2012 1.3153 4.1893
04/13/2012 1.3340 4.2488
04/16/2012 1.3338 4.2481
04/19/2012 1.3525 4.3076

Not quite the same. Data runs to June 2012 and drops below $4. I think it will be well above that now.

J

[Pogues]

Where the hell was I in 2009 when gas was under $2.00 a gallon? Oh right...Chicago.

Anyway, the election is always a choice for me. It's either a choice of "does the Republican candidate represent my views well enough to get my vote or am I going to choose to vote for the Libertarian candidate?" Since 1992, only once did I not choose the latter.

[senorsheep]

In 2008, my POV was: The Republicans must be punished for the George W. Bush debacle.

This year, my POV is: Obama has been OK, given difficult circumstances. I very much like his temperament and judgment, even though I'm not a fan of his/ his party's general economic policies and philosophies. I weight that issue heavily, especially at this point in time, so I'll be open to a change in direction. I'll wipe the slate clean and let him and Romney make their respective cases for everything they and their parties will bring to the table over the course of the next term.

[Lurker765]

Notquite, but that is an interesting point. 2008 has a huge spike, which got almost this high for a short time. Here is inflation adjusted data.

08/29/2008 1.2483 3.9757
09/10/2008 1.2471 3.9721
09/29/2008 1.2992 4.1379
10/19/2008 1.1652 3.7111

03/29/2012 1.2976 4.1329
04/11/2012 1.3153 4.1893
04/13/2012 1.3340 4.2488
04/16/2012 1.3338 4.2481
04/19/2012 1.3525 4.3076

Not quite the same. Data runs to June 2012 and drops below $4. I think it will be well above that now.

J

I'm not sure what you are trying to do. My comparison was same time of year numbers (Sept 2008 to Sept 2012 which is our current month). Comparisons of gas prices vary considerably due to supply/demand issues based on time of year. Comparing Sept 2008 to April 2012 is not the same.

You picked April 2012 which is the highest gas price point this year. Why don't we compare June 2008 to June 2012 if you want to pick dates with the most recent data you have (june 2012)?

[baldgriff]

What about the option - both parties suck ass and I will vote for someone else. Not because I think they can win, but because I dont believe that either of the two parties in political power actually have any real concern for what happens to "We the People"...... So my vote is a referendum against those parties.

[Lurker765]

What about the option - both parties suck ass and I will vote for someone else. Not because I think they can win, but because I dont believe that either of the two parties in political power actually have any real concern for what happens to "We the People"...... So my vote is a referendum against those parties.

That works fine if you don't live in a swing state. You get extra attention and possibly funding for a small party by doing that.

If you live in a swing state then your vote could potentially tilt an election to a candidate you would prefer slightly more than the other one. At that point your vote could impact an election and you need to figure out which major candidate is more appealing.

This will be true until minor candidates start getting a reasonable chance of actually winning by picking up momentum in non-swing states and getting some media attention, debates, etc.

[baldgriff]

This will be true until minor candidates start getting a reasonable chance of actually winning by picking up momentum in non-swing states and getting some media attention, debates, etc.

Swing state or non-swing state - if I feel both parties have gotten out of hand and both suck - then I need to vote for my third party candidate in order to start momentum in whatever state I am in.

[Kevin Seitzer]

What about the option - both parties suck ass and I will vote for someone else. Not because I think they can win, but because I dont believe that either of the two parties in political power actually have any real concern for what happens to "We the People"...... So my vote is a referendum against those parties.

My question wasn't really about who you want to vote for or whether you like the two parties. It was more about which in 2012 is (and was in 2008) the most important driver for your decision. Is/was it blame/credit for where we are at right now, i.e. a referendum on the incumbent? Or is/was it a choice between policies/leaders going into the future? I think for everyone it is some mix of those two, and they are obviously somewhat related. But it was an interesting exercise for me to think about which perspective had more influence on my decision in each election.