The GOPs Best Hope in 2012

[Lucky]

i think mitt romney type of candidate - a responsible adult with economic credentials - would be the biggest threat to barack obama. and i don't think the gop will be smart enough to pick their biggest threat.

rick perry - pretty slick package, likes to throw barbs around, i think people want someone more sober than swagger-y. will have to wait and see how he evolves. texas' solid economy is a pretty good arrow to have in his quiver.

michelle bachmann - doa. no way she convinces independents to vote for her. palin II.

ron paul - has not been taken seriously for too long, typecast as a fringe candidate. too rigid with his libertarianism.

huntsman - too little too late? don't know enough about him yet. could be an interesting lurker, but he has that mormon problem.

santorum - the country's not in the mood for a social conservative douche.

gingrich - lol. please.

pawlenty - seems like he dropped out too fast, or maybe he knew something about his chances we didn't.

i think it's possible someone else could step in to fill the vacuum.

I think people can argue this point either way. The unemployment rate in Texas is 8.4% - not as bad as the national rate, but not great, either. Plus, Texas is looking at a $27 Billion budget shortfall this year. Once again, not horrible, but certainly not great. The state keeps ramping up "fees" everywhere it can, since "fees" aren't as evil as "taxes", but they still haven't recovered from a big property tax break a few years ago.

True, Texas has poached a lot of jobs from other states, attracting companies with dirt cheap labor and lax governmental regulation. That's not the basis for long-term economic strength, though, and certainly can't work as a national model.

[Wonderboy]

I think people can argue this point either way. The unemployment rate in Texas is 8.4% - not as bad as the national rate, but not great, either. Plus, Texas is looking at a $27 Billion budget shortfall this year. Once again, not horrible, but certainly not great. The state keeps ramping up "fees" everywhere it can, since "fees" aren't as evil as "taxes", but they still haven't recovered from a big property tax break a few years ago.

True, Texas has poached a lot of jobs from other states, attracting companies with dirt cheap labor and lax governmental regulation. That's not the basis for long-term economic strength, though, and certainly can't work as a national model.

Plus doesn't Texas lead the nation in minimum wage jobs or close to it? I don't think telling someone who just lost their job that they should elect him President in order to create more jobs flipping burgers at minimum wage. I think Perry is much more vulnerable than Romney in the general election.

The pressure on the governor of NJ to join in must be enormous. And I still wonder if Palin will jump in at the last moment.

[Moonlight J]

Plus doesn't Texas lead the nation in minimum wage jobs or close to it? I don't think telling someone who just lost their job that they should elect him President in order to create more jobs flipping burgers at minimum wage. I think Perry is much more vulnerable than Romney in the general election.

.

Yes, and this too

http://jaredbernsteinblog.com/texas-and-the-gov%E2%80%99t-better-friends-than-you%E2%80%99d-think/

[onejayhawk]

I think people can argue this point either way. The unemployment rate in Texas is 8.4% - not as bad as the national rate, but not great, either. Plus, Texas is looking at a $27 Billion budget shortfall this year. Once again, not horrible, but certainly not great. The state keeps ramping up "fees" everywhere it can, since "fees" aren't as evil as "taxes", but they still haven't recovered from a big property tax break a few years ago.

True, Texas has poached a lot of jobs from other states, attracting companies with dirt cheap labor and lax governmental regulation. That's not the basis for long-term economic strength, though, and certainly can't work as a national model.

Say what? That is very counterintuitive. Please expand.

With regard to the fees, there is no income tax. Fees are the sole source of income other than sales tax.

J

[Bob Kohm]

It is somehow hard for you to understand that a "job program" based on poverty level wages isn't the key to long term economic strength? Try this-- Texas ranks #46 of the 50 states in terms of people living below the poverty line. That's an economic miracle, that you have more people living in poverty than 45 other states? That's not a miracle, it's a badge of shame.

[Cobain's Ghost]

It is somehow hard for you to understand that a "job program" based on poverty level wages isn't the key to long term economic strength? Try this-- Texas ranks #46 of the 50 states in terms of people living below the poverty line. That's an economic miracle, that you have more people living in poverty than 45 other states? That's not a miracle, it's a badge of shame.

don't they also have a much lower cost of of living than almost every other state? seems like that would be important to consider if you are using a national poverty line for comparison.

[Bob Kohm]

don't they also have a much lower cost of of living than almost every other state? seems like that would be important to consider if you are using a national poverty line for comparison.

No, it really isn't. The national poverty threshold is based on numbers normalized for factors across the 50 states. There's no way to look at being ranked #46 in terms of people below the poverty line than as an economic disaster, I'm afraid.

[GwynnInTheHall]

National Poverty line is what? A little above $22K a year?

[DMT]

No, it really isn't. The national poverty threshold is based on numbers normalized for factors across the 50 states. There's no way to look at being ranked #46 in terms of people below the poverty line than as an economic disaster, I'm afraid.

Could you provide a reference? I ask because when I studied poverty in grad school one of the major flaws with the way they measured it then (2002) was that it did not take into account regional cost-of-living differences.

[Cobain's Ghost]

Could you provide a reference? I ask because when I studied poverty in grad school one of the major flaws with the way they measured it then (2002) was that it did not take into account regional cost-of-living differences.

mmmm, yeah, bob's comment caused me to research the national poverty line and how it is calculated, and i don't think it's a very good measure for evaluating the texas economy. jason's link was interesting, though, if those numbers about govt jobs vs. private sector jobs are correct.

edit to add: found what seems like a pretty balanced article on the "texas jobs miracle" here. not really a miracle nor a disaster, just a mix of factors, some that he can claim credit for, more that he can't.

linky - http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...HFHJ_blog.html

[onejayhawk]

It is somehow hard for you to understand that a "job program" based on poverty level wages isn't the key to long term economic strength? Try this-- Texas ranks #46 of the 50 states in terms of people living below the poverty line. That's an economic miracle, that you have more people living in poverty than 45 other states? That's not a miracle, it's a badge of shame.

I can tell you are being condescending on purpose. Are you also being dense on purpose?

The international border counties of Texas are all in the 10 worst poverty counties in the nation, including 4 of the worst 5 IIRC. Does that tell you anything?

In Texas, the minimum wage is $290 a week, or $15,000 a year. Compared to the Mexican side, that is a fortune. The communities within 15 miles either side of the border have a population of New York and LA combined, or over 12 million people. About 1.8 Million of that is in San Diego/Tijuana. The bulk of the rest is strung out along the Rio Grande, between El Paso/Juarez and Brownsville/Matamoros. It is an achievement that Texas does not rank 50th.

All this is beside the point. I was asking how attracting businesses was not a long term strategy.

J

[Judge Jude]

I would say that the fact that Texas borders Mexico should be taken into account, so yes, I guess the question would be, "given that factor, where SHOULD they rank?"

I don't know if it's 50th, but I'm sure that's one hell of a reason to "grade on a curve."

[Kevin Seitzer]

The international border counties of Texas are all in the 10 worst poverty counties in the nation, including 4 of the worst 5 IIRC. Does that tell you anything?

Texas, or the counties, if you don't want to blame the state, have done some things in allowing the colonias to be established that have unnecessarily perpetuated the cycle of poverty in the border counties. It's not just a matter of proportion of recent immigrants or the migrant nature of the population, though those also contribute. I often find it useful to compare Texas to California in this regard, as both deal with a large population of immigrants, a significant portion of which are migrant farm workers.

Having said that, I have no idea where Texas ranks relative to California on the poverty scale. Also, California is a bit different in that the border counties are not necessarily where the crop harvesting is done, whereas in Texas the bulk of the crops requiring migrant labor are in the Rio Grande Valley.

[onejayhawk]

When a migratory worker gets a steady job, even at minimum wage, I have to consider that a step foreward.

J

[GwynnInTheHall]

When a migratory worker gets a steady job, even at minimum wage, I have to consider that a step foreward.

J

it does help provide a higher grade of cardboard for their shantys to be sure.