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'16 Democratic Nomination Thread

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  • I'm caucusing Saturday--Hoping to put him over the top in Nevada!
    If I whisper my wicked marching orders into the ether with no regard to where or how they may bear fruit, I am blameless should a broken spirit carry those orders out upon the innocent, for it was not my hand that took the action merely my lips which let slip their darkest wish. ~Daniel Devereaux 2011

    Nothing in all the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity.
    Martin Luther King, Jr.

    Comment


    • Originally posted by GwynnInTheHall View Post
      I'm caucusing Saturday--Hoping to put him over the top in Nevada!
      Nice, good luck!
      If DMT didn't exist we would have to invent it. There has to be a weirdest thing. Once we have the concept weird, there has to be a weirdest thing. And DMT is simply it.
      - Terence McKenna

      Bullshit is everywhere. - George Carlin (& Jon Stewart)

      How old would you be if you didn't know how old you are? - Satchel Paige

      Comment


      • I realize he wont win the South, but if he keeps it close there he has a shot. The more I hear HRC the less I can take of her.

        #anyonebutHRC
        It is wrong and ultimately self-defeating for a nation of immigrants to permit the kind of abuse of our immigration laws we have seen in recent years and we must stop it.
        Bill Clinton 1995, State of the Union Address


        "When they go low - we go High" great motto - too bad it was a sack of bullshit. DNC election mantra

        Comment


        • how about

          #anyonebuttheestablishment
          It is wrong and ultimately self-defeating for a nation of immigrants to permit the kind of abuse of our immigration laws we have seen in recent years and we must stop it.
          Bill Clinton 1995, State of the Union Address


          "When they go low - we go High" great motto - too bad it was a sack of bullshit. DNC election mantra

          Comment


          • Originally posted by eldiablo505
            Anyone but any of the GOP "candidates". I would vote for Marion Barry over Ted Cruz. I would vote for Rob Ford over Donald Trump. I would vote for Cosmo Kramer over either one.
            I'd open a phone book and point to a name and vote for them over Cruz, Trump or Rubio.
            I'm unconsoled I'm lonely, I am so much better than I used to be.

            The Weakerthans Aside

            Comment


            • Originally posted by eldiablo505
              Anyone but any of the GOP "candidates". I would vote for Marion Barry over Ted Cruz. I would vote for Rob Ford over Donald Trump. I would vote for Cosmo Kramer over either one.
              In a revisionist history where Canadians could become VP,a Marion Barry/Rob Ford ticket would have been all kinds of entertaining.

              edit: mind you, it's not like your current election cycle is boring ...
              It certainly feels that way. But I'm distrustful of that feeling and am curious about evidence.

              Comment


              • Originally posted by baldgriff View Post
                I realize he wont win the South, but if he keeps it close there he has a shot. The more I hear HRC the less I can take of her.

                #anyonebutHRC
                I'm with you--she is the worst of the worst.

                Comment


                • Originally posted by eldiablo505
                  Anyone but any of the GOP "candidates". I would vote for Marion Barry over Ted Cruz. I would vote for Rob Ford over Donald Trump. I would vote for Cosmo Kramer over either one.
                  I'd vote for Cosmo Kramer over a lot of people.
                  Considering his only baseball post in the past year was bringing up a 3 year old thread to taunt Hornsby and he's never contributed a dime to our hatpass, perhaps?

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by nots View Post
                    I'm with you--she is the worst of the worst.
                    It's almost like she's running on the GOP ticket :P
                    If I whisper my wicked marching orders into the ether with no regard to where or how they may bear fruit, I am blameless should a broken spirit carry those orders out upon the innocent, for it was not my hand that took the action merely my lips which let slip their darkest wish. ~Daniel Devereaux 2011

                    Nothing in all the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity.
                    Martin Luther King, Jr.

                    Comment


                    • Wow, Sanders pulls ahead of Clinton: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016...ationally.html
                      "The Times found no pattern of sexual misconduct by Mr. Biden, beyond the hugs, kisses and touching that women previously said made them uncomfortable." -NY Times

                      "For a woman to come forward in the glaring lights of focus, nationally, you’ve got to start off with the presumption that at least the essence of what she’s talking about is real, whether or not she forgets facts" - Joe Biden

                      Comment


                      • The meme about nominating the "most electable" candidate is such BS.

                        Both parties should be listening to their constituency and putting the elected candidate forward. That meme was possible the first line that the DNC used in order to try and get HRC to nomination. Is it possible that they will start listening to the people in their party and quit trying to tilt this process more in her favor?
                        It is wrong and ultimately self-defeating for a nation of immigrants to permit the kind of abuse of our immigration laws we have seen in recent years and we must stop it.
                        Bill Clinton 1995, State of the Union Address


                        "When they go low - we go High" great motto - too bad it was a sack of bullshit. DNC election mantra

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by baldgriff View Post
                          The meme about nominating the "most electable" candidate is such BS.

                          Both parties should be listening to their constituency and putting the elected candidate forward. That meme was possible the first line that the DNC used in order to try and get HRC to nomination. Is it possible that they will start listening to the people in their party and quit trying to tilt this process more in her favor?
                          No...
                          ---------------------------------------------
                          Champagne for breakfast and a Sherman in my hand !
                          ---------------------------------------------
                          The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.
                          George Orwell, 1984

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by eldiablo505
                            As much as I'm obviously a fan of Bernie Sanders, the actual reputable polling sites put Clinton's chances way ahead of Sanders'. While some of that is probably attributable to the stuff Baldgriff laments --- the "establishment" concept --- it's been the same thing for a long time now and the sites that are my personal go-to sites regarding polling were, are, and continue to be showing that Clinton is a great deal ahead of Sanders in terms of securing the primary. Perhaps that changes, and things are certainly looking at least a little better for Bernie now that he's more well-known nationally, but let's check this out:



                            Fox News is literally the only polling that shows Sanders ahead at all (perhaps some agenda at play - conspiracy theorists unite!). The real polling outfits not only show Clinton ahead, they show her ahead by large margins.
                            One of the things that I don't like about 538's weighted polling is that they continue to use outdated polls, even though they down-weight them. National polling that was conducted before the New Hampshire primary doesn't seem very relevant when you have multiple reliable polls conducted since then. If you look at their top eight polls (the ones weighted 1.0 or above), they have Clinton at 48% and Sanders at 41%, on average. That's not a trivial margin for Sanders to overcome, but it's not gigantic, either.
                            "Jesus said to them, 'Truly I tell you, the tax collectors and the prostitutes are going into the kingdom of God ahead of you.'"

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by baldgriff View Post
                              The meme about nominating the "most electable" candidate is such BS.

                              Both parties should be listening to their constituency and putting the elected candidate forward. That meme was possible the first line that the DNC used in order to try and get HRC to nomination. Is it possible that they will start listening to the people in their party and quit trying to tilt this process more in her favor?
                              Of course not, because they are reaping immense benefits from the current system.
                              If DMT didn't exist we would have to invent it. There has to be a weirdest thing. Once we have the concept weird, there has to be a weirdest thing. And DMT is simply it.
                              - Terence McKenna

                              Bullshit is everywhere. - George Carlin (& Jon Stewart)

                              How old would you be if you didn't know how old you are? - Satchel Paige

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Kevin Seitzer View Post
                                One of the things that I don't like about 538's weighted polling is that they continue to use outdated polls, even though they down-weight them. National polling that was conducted before the New Hampshire primary doesn't seem very relevant when you have multiple reliable polls conducted since then. If you look at their top eight polls (the ones weighted 1.0 or above), they have Clinton at 48% and Sanders at 41%, on average. That's not a trivial margin for Sanders to overcome, but it's not gigantic, either.
                                fwiw, if I calculated it right the polls that concluded this week represent more than 75% of the overall weight, so the weighting is significant.

                                the one poll with the largest sample size (more than 4x any other of the top polls) has Clinton at +10, which is pretty close to 538's overall assessment of 50.1 to 38.7.

                                so yeah, the trends are nice to see for Sanders supporters but he's gonna have to keep the momentum going.
                                It certainly feels that way. But I'm distrustful of that feeling and am curious about evidence.

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