Russian Invasion of Ukraine

[madducks]

Seems like a sneaky way to nuke the country without nuking it.

There's nothing sneaky about it. Russia has started a nuclear war with the Ukraine. This is the beginning of World War III. We've bombed countries that did far less than this. We should have bombed the 40 mile long convoy yesterday. Or at least bombed the access roads.

[The Feral Slasher]

There's nothing sneaky about it. Russia has started a nuclear war with the Ukraine. This is the beginning of World War III. We've bombed countries that did far less than this. We should have bombed the 40 mile long convoy yesterday. Or at least bombed the access roads.

What happens after you bomb the convoy ?

[GwynnInTheHall]

What happens after you bomb the convoy ?

You look out for smokey, rubber ducky!

[TranaGreg]

... the Ukraine ...

just FYI, "the Ukraine" was how the USSR referred to the country; since it became its own country it's just "Ukraine"

[TranaGreg]

What happens after you bomb the convoy ?

1- the west has the moral high ground, other fascist leaders see that they can't break NATO or intimidate the west, you can choose level of involvement in the southern incursions or defense of Kyiv or whatever
2- Putin, madman that he is with no escape route, escalates dramatically and WWIII fully breaks out

I think that it's a question of time - to see if the sanctions have their intended effect of shutting down the Russian economy, hurting the oligarchs who are propping Putin up, fomenting internal rebellions ... but in the meantime thousands will die. I still have a hard time seeing the west getting directly involved militarily ... but my confidence in that assessment is waning by the day ...

[The Feral Slasher]

1- the west has the moral high ground, other fascist leaders see that they can't break NATO or intimidate the west, you can choose level of involvement in the southern incursions or defense of Kyiv or whatever
2- Putin, madman that he is with no escape route, escalates dramatically and WWIII fully breaks out

I think that it's a question of time - to see if the sanctions have their intended effect of shutting down the Russian economy, hurting the oligarchs who are propping Putin up, fomenting internal rebellions ... but in the meantime thousands will die. I still have a hard time seeing the west getting directly involved militarily ... but my confidence in that assessment is waning by the day ...

With how horrible the situation is I completely understand the desire to do something. At the same time I'd want to have a level of confidence that intervention would actually make the situation better and not worse.

[Bene Futuis]

There's nothing sneaky about it. Russia has started a nuclear war with the Ukraine. This is the beginning of World War III. We've bombed countries that did far less than this. We should have bombed the 40 mile long convoy yesterday. Or at least bombed the access roads.

Doing that would start WWIII.

[ironfist]

Doing that would start WWIII.

I never considered it before, but do you think maybe Putin wants to start WWIII? Can he be so arrogant that he thinks somehow Russia would win and become the world super power?

[The Feral Slasher]

I never considered it before, but do you think maybe Putin wants to start WWIII? Can he be so arrogant that he thinks somehow Russia would win and become the world super power?

that seems unlikely

[Bene Futuis]

I never considered it before, but do you think maybe Putin wants to start WWIII? Can he be so arrogant that he thinks somehow Russia would win and become the world super power?

I still think the Occam's Razor answer is that Putin wants to install a puppet regime in Ukraine or at least some sort of weakened form of the current government but massively underestimated both the Ukranian resolve to fight as well as the near-unanimous backlash worldwide against his aggression. I don't think he wants nuclear war because that surely would (mutually) destroy Russia. There are a lot of unanswered questions, though, such as: why isn't Russia engaging in a more concerted air campaign? How does Putin think he'll ever be able to hold such a massive country as Ukraine, with 40 million citizens who want to kill him? He has mobilized even the most peaceful, non-interventionist countries against him. I just hope there is a Ukraine left before this all wraps up.

[revo]

And assuming Ukraine eventually falls, what is he supposed to do with the leadership like Zelenskyy, Klitschko, etc? Lock them up? Exile them? Execute them? They've gotten so popular with not only the people of Ukraine, but the world, that any way he turns with them would be disastrous.

[ironfist]

I still think the Occam's Razor answer is that Putin wants to install a puppet regime in Ukraine or at least some sort of weakened form of the current government but massively underestimated both the Ukranian resolve to fight as well as the near-unanimous backlash worldwide against his aggression. I don't think he wants nuclear war because that surely would (mutually) destroy Russia. There are a lot of unanswered questions, though, such as: why isn't Russia engaging in a more concerted air campaign? How does Putin think he'll ever be able to hold such a massive country as Ukraine, with 40 million citizens who want to kill him? He has mobilized even the most peaceful, non-interventionist countries against him. I just hope there is a Ukraine left before this all wraps up.

This is my belief as well, but he has been acting a little more unhinged lately. Kind of like a temper tantrum because things aren't going according to plan. It was just a wild idea that popped into my head. He may be ready to just level the country and people and build from the ground up with his own people. Erase the country and culture completely.

[GwynnInTheHall]

This is my belief as well, but he has been acting a little more unhinged lately. Kind of like a temper tantrum because things aren't going according to plan. It was just a wild idea that popped into my head. He may be ready to just level the country and people and build from the ground up with his own people. Erase the country and culture completely.

If that starts to happen, I can't see the international community just standing one the sidelines. This war is being fought just as much on social media as it is on the ground. The response wouldn't be so much about what people think of Putin, but because of what the world might think of those who did nothing to help.

[TranaGreg]

IMO Putin is now winging it. He went all in on breaking up NATO, thinking that Germany in particular would cave due to its dependence on Russian oil & gas. The way the west has reacted is shocking, to us and to him. I think this also explains why Russian soldiers that have been captured have all been told it was to be a training session, not a real invasion.

Which means we're in uncharted territory. He's completely unpredictable at this point - does he continue to escalate, bringing in the elite troops & going for all out destruction? or does he find a way out that allows him to save face & keep his position? As days go by I have to believe that the internal pressure from Russian business interests is growing. Is that good or bad, I don't know (a cornered dog with no escape is a very dangerous one).

[ironfist]

I just don't see an out for Putin at this point. If he wins and Kyiv surrenders, he installs his puppets, but then what? How can he hold it? The Ukrainian population is lost to him forever. He would have to commit an occupation force there for generations. If he goes nuts and nukes them, all hell will be unleashed on him. I don't see how the world will stand by and let him nuke a non-peer country like that. Same with if he goes scorched earth and goes the genocide route (wouldn't be a first for Russia). He is too proud to just back off tail between his legs and Ukraine won't just accept for him to keep whatever extra territory he seized this time. So how does this end? With the oligarchs taking him out?