Russian Invasion of Ukraine

[Sour Masher]

I understand all that--WW2 took a heavy toll, but it stop Hitler from executing his entire plan and Japan from occupying most of China among other things.

Doing the right thing is costly at times, allowing bullies to get what they want cannot be tolerated or they'll come back stronger, emboldened and less likely to negotiate.

Putin is forcing the West to do what he wants at the expense of Ukraine. It can't be allowed, one way or another this needs to end with Putin being removed from power. How that happens and what the cost will be can be debated, but unless you want to spend the rest of your days watching the World capitulate to Russia and countries like them, this must end here.

The only way this ends with Putin gone is if the oligarchs make that happen. Outside forces trying to topple the Russia government would be disastrous. And there is a middle ground between capitulation and appeasement, which is what is happening now with unprecedented global sanctions and support for Ukraine in the form of aid, money, supplies, and near universal admonishment and isolation of Russia. Your suggested solution is total capitulation by Putin and Russia, and that is not going to happen.

Oh, and Hitler did not have the bomb yet. If he did, who knows if anyone of us would be here right now. Humanity might have turned the world into a nuclear wasteland. But I don't see this as the same thing. Russia is not being ignored and appeased. They are being isolated, their economy is suffering. They are feeling the pain of their actions and I think are learning a lesson--I hope. I think if taking Ukraine had gone easy, they might have tried for more, but it hasn't. I think Russia will likely learn from this and be less brazen for the foreseeable future. I just don't see them tucking tail and running without anything to show for it at this point. It would weaken Putin too much in the eyes of the oligarchs and his people, which might lead to his removal. He knows that so he will command his forces to keep attacking until he can't or until he can get something like TG put forth. He can sell it as liberating the regions he falsely claims is being targeted by genocidal fascists. He can sell it as a great feat of altruism. I think it would be the path to the least amount of bloodshed and suffering for all, if you assume, as I do, that it has already shown Russia not to try something like this again. Will Ukraine and NATO accept such terms or should they? I don't know. This is a crucial moment in history and how it plays out could shape the world for years to come.

[GwynnInTheHall]

Well, your first question is what really matters, and what will determine how this plays out.

Your second paragraph confuses me, because you are not a fan of US intervention, but what you are suggesting should happen is impossible without it. Ukraine is not in any position to make demands of Russia without military intervention from outside forces, likely with the US part of that, and since that could lead to WW III, this is not an easy case of standing up to the bully that needs to be put in its place. The global response has been heartening and Ukrainian bravery and resolve has been impressive and inspiring. But none of that is enough to lead to the outcomes you find acceptable. Ukraine and NATO will either have to concede more or Russia will not back down and then the world will have to decide how to handle that. You seem to be okay with the next step being a US led military engagement with Russia. I think very, very few people agree with that. The worst case scenario of that course of action is as bad as humanity has ever seen--a scenario not many of us would survive. I'm not saying it would go down that road toward nuclear holocaust, but the chance of it would be greater than 0% and with stakes this high, I don't think anyone wants to even start down that road.

I understand everything you've said and can agree--it's not an easy fix. I agree with the US assisting an ally when requested and when the morality exists to justify it.

The world has been inching toward this moment for decades. In this day and age of instant news, access to information and global connection, committing atrocities similar to those of the past won't be forgiven or forgotten. We teach our kids NOT to bully or to stand up to them, even though that bully might come back with an AR 15 and kill people.

I mentioned before--I think Putin will be done in by his own people--if he's not--the rest of the world needs to do it. I get it, I'm not a guy who likes to compromise and so my takes are a bit more uncomfortable than most. If there is a Nuke war,my family and I live in cities with priority targeting. Hell, I live 10 minutes from Camp Pendleton so I've be evaporated as would my wife. And maybe it's easy for me to say these things because I'm 60 and might not have to deal with the consequence much if at all. But I did serve in the Military during Desert Shield--where i believed protecting Kuwait was a just cause. At 40 I called to re up after 9-11 because I believed finding those responsible and bringing them to justice was Just. I believe now that helping Ukraine in any manner, even militarily, to prevent Putin from accomplishing his endgame, is Just.

I don't want to see the world burn or millions die, but if no one ever takes a stand, even a costly one, what's to stop china or North Korea or any other fascist regime from doing the same thing--keep backing down and eventually you'll have nowhere to go.

We're most likely not going to come to an agreement on this. So let's hope my first solution is what goes down.

[The Feral Slasher]

I understand everything you've said and can agree--it's not an easy fix. I agree with the US assisting an ally when requested and when the morality exists to justify it.

The world has been inching toward this moment for decades. In this day and age of instant news, access to information and global connection, committing atrocities similar to those of the past won't be forgiven or forgotten. We teach our kids NOT to bully or to stand up to them, even though that bully might come back with an AR 15 and kill people.

I mentioned before--I think Putin will be done in by his own people--if he's not--the rest of the world needs to do it. I get it, I'm not a guy who likes to compromise and so my takes are a bit more uncomfortable than most. If there is a Nuke war,my family and I live in cities with priority targeting. Hell, I live 10 minutes from Camp Pendleton so I've be evaporated as would my wife. And maybe it's easy for me to say these things because I'm 60 and might not have to deal with the consequence much if at all. But I did serve in the Military during Desert Shield--where i believed protecting Kuwait was a just cause. At 40 I called to re up after 9-11 because I believed finding those responsible and bringing them to justice was Just. I believe now that helping Ukraine in any manner, even militarily, to prevent Putin from accomplishing his endgame, is Just.

I don't want to see the world burn or millions die, but if no one ever takes a stand, even a costly one, what's to stop china or North Korea or any other fascist regime from doing the same thing--keep backing down and eventually you'll have nowhere to go.

We're most likely not going to come to an agreement on this. So let's hope my first solution is what goes down.

"I don't want to see the world burn or millions die, but ...." is quite an interesting start to a sentence. : )

Anyway, aside from the dangers of potential escalation of war with Russia, having a significant part of our military involved in Europe potentially would give China a huge opportunity rather than deterring them. Anyway, that's enough for me for know.

[GwynnInTheHall]

"I don't want to see the world burn or millions die, but ...." is quite an interesting start to a sentence. : )

Anyway, aside from the dangers of potential escalation of war with Russia, having a significant part of our military involved in Europe potentially would give China a huge opportunity rather than deterring them. Anyway, that's enough for me for know.

There honestly is no one good choice, just several mitigated ones. Again, I hope the Russians handle Putin themselves and Mashers plan has a ton of merit and would exact the fewest casualties.. But can the EU really allow Putin that much closer into their physical boundaries? Give him a staging area for his next--freedom rally? Extort policy? I don't know that they can. But maybe they will.

I've never really agreed with Lindsey Graham on anything, but I'm onboard with his--someone should take Putin out comments.

Well, we'll see.

[ironfist]

so an agreement is needed that both sides can position as a win. How about ...

Russia formally gets Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk; Ukraine signs an agreement that they will not join NATO
Ukraine can continue with its application into the EU; Russia signs some sort of treaty/agreement to respect Ukraine's independence and current borders.

A treaty/agreement with Russia is worth the same as a piece of used toilet paper. See Minsk, Budapest Memorandum. Most likley if they do have a cease fire, all territories taken by Russia will remain and they will try again in a few years.

[Bene Futuis]

Russian oil is in 40% of German households. 100% of Italian. 100% of Austrian.


This is going to be a total shitshow.

[The Feral Slasher]

Russian oil is in 40% of German households. 100% of Italian. 100% of Austrian.


This is going to be a total shitshow.

Ukraine and Russia account for about 30% of the world's wheat exports and wheat prices are climbing rapidly. Lots of far reaching impacts to this war in addition to the tragedy in Ukraine itself.

[GwynnInTheHall]

Russian oil is in 40% of German households. 100% of Italian. 100% of Austrian.


This is going to be a total shitshow.

And now they control the largest Nuclear plant in Europe as well as being close to control a second plant of the 4 working plants in Ukraine. Chernobyl is inactive, but that have that too. So more control of the EUs energy supply and/or 4 new dirty bombs to use against any resisting forces.

[GwynnInTheHall]

A treaty/agreement with Russia is worth the same as a piece of used toilet paper. See Minsk, Budapest Memorandum. Most likley if they do have a cease fire, all territories taken by Russia will remain and they will try again in a few years.

One one hand Putin says he has "no ill intentions' toward Ukraine on the other he says he'd rather have a smoking crater to the West over Ukraine as a member of NATO.

But I'm sure the world can trust this guy once he's made his "deal"

Edit: Agreed to ceasefire to allow civilians a humanitarian corridor to escape safely--continues shelling...

[revo]

One thing about this war is that the US military, and really the entire world, are seeing the Russian military fight in real time in real circumstances. And the results have been, quite frankly, far from good. In fact, their historical strength seems to have been wildly overestimated for decades. Their tactics have been piss poor, their equipment faulty, their troop strength horrific, their leadership horrendous. Their supply chain has already been determined to be terrible.

The Russian military is proving to be extraordinarily inferior than even the most conservative estimates.

[Gregg]

One thing about this war is that the US military, and really the entire world, are seeing the Russian military fight in real time in real circumstances. And the results have been, quite frankly, far from good. In fact, their historical strength seems to have been wildly overestimated for decades. Their tactics have been piss poor, their equipment faulty, their troop strength horrific, their leadership horrendous. Their supply chain has already been determined to be terrible.

The Russian military is proving to be extraordinarily inferior than even the most conservative estimates.

So now would be the time to remove the teeth of the Russian threat before Putin presses the button??

[The Feral Slasher]

So now would be the time to remove the teeth of the Russian threat before Putin presses the button??

That's a little cryptic to say the least. What are you suggesting? And what does "before Putin presses the button" mean ?

[Gregg]

That's a little cryptic to say the least. What are you suggesting? And what does "before Putin presses the button" mean ?

What do you think I mean?

[The Feral Slasher]

What do you think I mean?

I'm not going to guess what stupid idea you have in your head, it could be anything from assassinating Putin to starting a nuclear war. Maybe someone else wants to play your guessing game.

Honestly when you respond like this to someone who asks you to clarify you are either trolling or are just being a dick.

[Bene Futuis]

What do you think I mean?

I think you are suggesting open war against Russia or assassination of their leader, which is the same.