Corona Virus

[The Feral Slasher]

Stanford is doing a study to see if California's numbers are lower than expected because--They may have been exposed to it long before the rest of the country all the way back in the fall. Citing the fact the flu season was perceived to come early, Calif had 8K Chinese visitors from China daily, may direct flights from Wuhan, the Chinese Govt keeps backdating the date of the original outbreak which now stands at Nov 17th and that Cali is the#1 destination of tourists from China. They've hypothesized that we've had this around for months and have developed more or a herd immunity and if so will have the antibodies needed to procure a vaccine. they have already tested 3500 people for the study. it should be interesting to see if this is indeed the case.

If true why were there not more deaths and why are there not more confirmed cases now ?

[GwynnInTheHall]

If true why were there not more deaths and why are there not more confirmed cases now ?

I would guess it's because they thought it was the regular Flu or this seasons version of it rather than Covid-19 which wasn't specifically identified until Jan.

https://www.ksbw.com/article/new-study-investigates-californias-possible-herd-immunity-to-covid-19/32073873?fbclid=IwAR1Zcl6Jw6IGewcTpS5sLuC_AK30LJdgz0mf_U76bDmABO5W2OPT1t5M50w

They explain it better than I and again, it's just a theory.

[The Feral Slasher]

I would guess it's because they thought it was the regular Flu or this seasons version of it rather than Covid-19 which wasn't specifically identified until Jan.

https://www.ksbw.com/article/new-study-investigates-californias-possible-herd-immunity-to-covid-19/32073873?fbclid=IwAR1Zcl6Jw6IGewcTpS5sLuC_AK30LJdgz0mf_U76bDmABO5W2OPT1t5M50w

They explain it better than I and again, it's just a theory.

It just seems like they are descibing a completely different virus than we have observed elsewhere. Who knows? Doesn't hurt to study and learn

[Sour Masher]

I would guess it's because they thought it was the regular Flu or this seasons version of it rather than Covid-19 which wasn't specifically identified until Jan.

https://www.ksbw.com/article/new-study-investigates-californias-possible-herd-immunity-to-covid-19/32073873?fbclid=IwAR1Zcl6Jw6IGewcTpS5sLuC_AK30LJdgz0mf_U76bDmABO5W2OPT1t5M50w

They explain it better than I and again, it's just a theory.

This has been a pretty deadly flu season, so it does seem plausible that some deaths in Cali were attributed to the flu that were actually coronavirus cases. But if it were COVID-19, I'd have expected to see such a strain on the health care system that they would have figured out that it wasn't the flu. I mean, if Cali could have operated without any restraint for months with this thing, everyone else could have too, and I don't think that is the case.

[chancellor]

This has been a pretty deadly flu season, so it does seem plausible that some deaths in Cali were attributed to the flu that were actually coronavirus cases. But if it were COVID-19, I'd have expected to see such a strain on the health care system that they would have figured out that it wasn't the flu. I mean, if Cali could have operated without any restraint for months with this thing, everyone else could have too, and I don't think that is the case.

Agree. Moreover, the spread would have started sooner since travel was unrestricted.

[GwynnInTheHall]

You are all probably correct, just wanted to share

[cardboardbox]

I'm depressed that the mortality rate keeps going up, now 3.56%. I still think a lot of people have had the virus or still have it but are not very sick, but I'm not real confident anymore in the true mortality rate being around .5% or even lower. Hopefully I'm wrong...

[Ken]

I'm depressed that the mortality rate keeps going up, now 3.56%. I still think a lot of people have had the virus or still have it but are not very sick, but I'm not real confident anymore in the true mortality rate being around .5% or even lower. Hopefully I'm wrong...

If the true mortality rate were 0.5% we wouldn't be doing any of this. The flu is around 0.1%. This is much worse than the flu. It hasn't finished spreading. Just as an example, think about the last time you heard of a celeb dying from complications of the flu, something that happens to a large portion of the population every year. Then look at how many celebrities have already died from coronavirus, a virus that's only been in humans a few months. Those who were preaching that the true mortality rate was really small because so many people aren't getting tested were just too optimistic in my opinion. Yes, there's a lot of people who aren't tested, but this thing kills.

[cardboardbox]

If the true mortality rate were 0.5% we wouldn't be doing any of this. The flu is around 0.1%. This is much worse than the flu. It hasn't finished spreading. Just as an example, think about the last time you heard of a celeb dying from complications of the flu, something that happens to a large portion of the population every year. Then look at how many celebrities have already died from coronavirus, a virus that's only been in humans a few months. Those who were preaching that the true mortality rate was really small because so many people aren't getting tested were just too optimistic in my opinion. Yes, there's a lot of people who aren't tested, but this thing kills.

I didnt say it didnt kill, just that the mortality rate is surely much lower than 3.56% but not as low as I thought it would be.

[rhd]

Another stats update as of 7:46 AM today. Last stats were from 4/7 at 7:46 AM, exactly 3 days ago. This is the 1st comparison of stats using the exact same time interval:

- 469,993 cases in US, up from 368,453, a 27.6% increase. That's a smaller increase than last time (32.3%). The US now has almost 3 times the # of cases of any other country. This rate results in a doubling about every 8.5 days so we would project to pass 1 million cases by about 4/19. The states w the highest # of cases per capita, in order, are New York, New Jersey, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Connecticut, DC and Michigan. The states w the highest # of tests per capita, in order, are New York, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Rhode Island Washington state, DC and Utah. As of 4/8, the US has a testing rate of 3.2 per thousand. For comparison, S. Korea's rate is 9.1 per thousand.
- 16,716 deaths in US, up from 11,007, a 51.9% increase which is a larger increase than last time (48.7%). This rate results in a doubling in almost exactly 5 days, so we would project to pass 100,000 deaths by about 4/23. Wyoming still is the only state that has not yet reported a death and American Samoa is the only territory w/o a case. The US mortality rate is now 3.56%, which is higher than 3 days ago, (2.99%). The states w the highest # of deaths per capita, in order, are New York, New Jersey, Louisiana, Michigan, Connecticut, Massachusetts and Washington state.
- 1,618,649 cases worldwide, up from 1,360,472, a 19.0% increase which is a slightly smaller increase than last time (20.0%). 1,536,742 of these are outside of mainland China, up from 1,278,732, a 20.2% increase, which is a slightly lesser rate of increase than last time (21.6%).
- 96,956 deaths worldwide, up from 76,088, a 27.4% increase which is a slightly larger increase than last time (26.0%). 93,620 deaths are outside of China, up from 72,757, a 28.7% increase which is a slightly larger increase than last time (27.5%). Mortality rates continue to rise. The world mortality rate is 5.99%, up from 5.59%. Italy's mortality rate is 12.72%, up from 12.49%, Spain's is 10.09%, up from 9.82%, France's is 10.37%, up from 9.09% and UK's is 12.26%, up from 10.41%. Germany's is still low, 2.14% but up from 1.76%.
- 215 countries/territories/etc. have confirmed cases w suspected cases in 1 other (North Korea), up from 212. There are only 15 countries, 11 of which are island republics, that have neither reported nor have suspected deaths: Lesotho, Yemen, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, Comoros, Kiribati, Marshall Is., Micronesia, Nauru, Palau, Samoa, Solomon Is., Tonga, Tuvalu, Vanuatu. The vast majority of countries have at least 1 death, w Vietnam having the most cases w no reported deaths, 255.

Recent trends continue, w case rate increases getting smaller and death rate increases and mortality rates getting larger. Some cause for optimism but still a very rough road ahead.

[rhd]

I didnt say it didnt kill, just that the mortality rate is surely much lower than 3.56% but not as low as I thought it would be.

I've seen all kinds of widely varying estimates of the CV-19 mortality rate. Common estimated true rates I've seen are from 2.0-2.5%, which sounds realistic given that this pandemic seems so much like the 1918 pandemic and the mortality rate for that was estimated at about 1.8%, altho we're uncertain of that, also. If you use the # of deaths divided by the # of cases, the world rate currently is almost exactly 6%. I don't think the true rate is that high, but I think it's much higher than 0.5%. Even the WHO, who seem to have been downplaying the severity of this outbreak all along, now say the rate is 10 times that of the common flu, which would mean the rate would be about 1.0%.

I'll also note that in order for the current rate to become as low as most estimated true rates, a ton more people will have to have become infected.

Edit: I misspoke re: the mortality rate for the 1918 flu. THe figure I saw actually was 2.5%; the 1.8 figure was the R-naught. SAme difference tho for the point I was making.

[Gregg]

I've seen all kinds of widely varying estimates of the CV-19 mortality rate. Common estimated true rates I've seen are from 2.0-2.5%, which sounds realistic given that this pandemic seems so much like the 1918 pandemic and the mortality rate for that was estimated at about 1.8%, altho we're uncertain of that, also. If you use the # of deaths divided by the # of cases, the world rate currently is almost exactly 6%. I don't think the true rate is that high, but I think it's much higher than 0.5%. Even the WHO, who seem to have been downplaying the severity of this outbreak all along, now say the rate is 10 times that of the common flu, which would mean the rate would be about 1.0%.

I'll also note that in order for the current rate to become as low as most estimated true rates, a ton more people will have to have become infected.

My wife was on the phone yesterday with a former workmate and friend. In hindsight she is absolutely sure that her young daughter had it in early February. She had a fever, headache, dry cough and eventually said mommy I can't breathe. There was even a Chinese connection getting off the plane and interacting with the family within a day or two.

Doctors at the time said it was the flu. She has a husband and 3 kids. There was no distancing only exposure. I believe only one of the other kids experienced slight symptoms which obviously they thought was the flu. No one else was symptomatic.

Certainly they would have been carriers. But what about the numbers within that family? What to do with those? None reported and none died. At least one, maybe two healed. Were the rest immune or did they have it but with no ill effects. Could be 5 to the unreported healed side. How many other early families would fall under this scenario?

I am not sure it makes a difference. But it is interesting when talking about the numbers.

[cardboardbox]

I've seen all kinds of widely varying estimates of the CV-19 mortality rate. Common estimated true rates I've seen are from 2.0-2.5%, which sounds realistic given that this pandemic seems so much like the 1918 pandemic and the mortality rate for that was estimated at about 1.8%, altho we're uncertain of that, also. If you use the # of deaths divided by the # of cases, the world rate currently is almost exactly 6%. I don't think the true rate is that high, but I think it's much higher than 0.5%. Even the WHO, who seem to have been downplaying the severity of this outbreak all along, now say the rate is 10 times that of the common flu, which would mean the rate would be about 1.0%.

I'll also note that in order for the current rate to become as low as most estimated true rates, a ton more people will have to have become infected.

I was only talking about the US mortality rate, which I think is coming in lower than a lot of other countries. 1% seems like a reasonable estimate now but again this is still a complete random shot in the dark, assuming that for every confirmed case there are 3 more infected or recovered that we dont know about.

[cardboardbox]

My wife was on the phone yesterday with a former workmate and friend. In hindsight she is absolutely sure that her young daughter had it in early February. She had a fever, headache, dry cough and eventually said mommy I can't breathe. There was even a Chinese connection getting off the plane and interacting with the family within a day or two.

Doctors at the time said it was the flu. She has a husband and 3 kids. There was no distancing only exposure. I believe only one of the other kids experienced slight symptoms which obviously they thought was the flu. No one else was symptomatic.

Certainly they would have been carriers. But what about the numbers within that family? What to do with those? None reported and none died. At least one, maybe two healed. Were the rest immune or did they have it but with no ill effects. Could be 5 to the unreported healed side. How many other early families would fall under this scenario?

I am not sure it makes a difference. But it is interesting when talking about the numbers.

I've had this thought for a while that a massive number of Americans have already been infected and recovered and dont know it. Like you said, the virus likely got here much earlier than we thought. My wife and I were both dealing with bronchitis for weeks in late January through Feb, I had the strangest dry cough for a while.

[gcstomp]

There is substantial undercounting of covid-19 deaths. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/05/u...ndercount.html Not just in other countries, right here in U.S. where regions would have average 20 deaths a day in past years, it is now 200+ but these arent people who ever were tested. Vast swaths of population are getting infected from covid-19, getting sick at home, and dying, without ever having tested and other than a forensic comping of past neighborhood averages to this years elevated mortality rates, we will never KNOW we will just have the suspicion. Cause of death will be listed, for instance, as pnemonia, or influenza. I am confident the death rate is higher than the reported 3.4%

When looking at the closed cases worldwide, and we are getting to a very substantial data point, the death rate has only gone up. Of the 464,177 cases (which will be outdated in hours) closed, 79% are listed as recovered/discharged, 21% as death. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ Keep in mind, shortage of tests, many people are never tested, but entire areas are seeing elevated mortality rates that are simply being misclassified.