Corona Virus

[frae]

incredible not only that Seitzer cannot, or will not, directly answer my response:

"and what part of my observation about "very strong trends of statewide quarantines both in terms of state politics and in population per square mile" are you disagreeing with, exactly?"

.... but also that, again, such a refusal by is taken as a declaration of victory by the spectators.

we are officially down the rabbit hole.

We are just experimenting with what it is like to be a Trump supporter

I am not following this debate at all, but isn't it frustrating when you think people won't listen to facts and logic?

[Judge Jude]

of course.

but moreso when it's people who claim to be "facts and logic" people - and then they simply refuse to engage in same, and revel in their refusal.

and it's one thing to not being able to engage with Trump supporters. but maybe a little light bulb should go off when it extends even to people who are not Trump supporters - a guy can dream, after all.

[frae]

of course.

but moreso when it's people who claim to be "facts and logic" people - and then they simply refuse to engage in same, and revel in their refusal.

and it's one thing to not being able to engage with Trump supporters. but maybe a little light bulb should go off when it extends even to people who are not Trump supporters - a guy can dream, after all.

I honestly can't follow you guys on this one, I do poll data, but this stuff isn't my thing so I am skipping it. But as a person who doesn't understand, I can just sit over here and yell fake news about anything that doesn't fit my desires like Trump supporters and Trump himself when he told me this would be from 15 and down to zero in no time when every scientist told him that is not how the growth of a virus works.

[DMT]

incredible not only that Seitzer cannot, or will not, directly answer my response:

"and what part of my observation about "very strong trends of statewide quarantines both in terms of state politics and in population per square mile" are you disagreeing with, exactly?"

.... but also that, again, such a refusal by is taken as a declaration of victory by the spectators.

we are officially down the rabbit hole.

The only rabbit hole you've fell into is your own obtuseness. KS very specifically addressed your question with this answer, "predicting shutdown status from population density and party of governor, party of governor is significant at the 0.998 confidence level, and population density is not a significant factor once party of governor is known."

[Judge Jude]

I posted this: "There are very strong trends of statewide quarantines both in terms of state politics and in population per square mile"

KS then inaccurately characterized this statement by claiming: "I think this should effectively refute JJ's argument that party-shutdown link is coincidental."

again, I said that "there are very strong trends of statewide quarantines... in terms of state politics."

he falsely claimed that I said that "party-shutdown link is coincidental."

if you think that characterization is accurate - well, then I can't help you.

[The Feral Slasher]

I posted this: "There are very strong trends of statewide quarantines both in terms of state politics and in population per square mile"

KS then inaccurately characterized this statement by claiming: "I think this should effectively refute JJ's argument that party-shutdown link is coincidental."

again, I said that "there are very strong trends of statewide quarantines... in terms of state politics."

he falsely claimed that I said that "party-shutdown link is coincidental."

if you think that characterization is accurate - well, then I can't help you.

Why did u call Madducks original post misleading ?

[Judge Jude]

again with the deflection. amazing.

but in spite of that, I'll actually address your post directly. communication really thrives when that happens - it's worth a try!

It's misleading because these are those state rankings in terms of population density:

Wyoming 49
North Dakota 46
South Dakota 45
Nebraska 43
Utah 40
Iowa 36
Arkansas 34
South Carolina 19

Therefore, "There are very strong trends of statewide quarantines both in terms of state politics and in population per square mile."

only picking one of those and ignoring the other is misleading, because there are very strong trends of statewide quarantines both in terms of state politics and in population per square mile.

a direct response would be preferable, if anyone doesn't mind. addressing 1175 directly would be even more appreciated.

[The Feral Slasher]

again with the deflection. amazing.

but in spite of that, I'll actually address your post directly. communication really thrives when that happens - it's worth a try!

It's misleading because these are those state rankings in terms of population density:

Wyoming 49
North Dakota 46
South Dakota 45
Nebraska 43
Utah 40
Iowa 36
Arkansas 34
South Carolina 19

Therefore, "There are very strong trends of statewide quarantines both in terms of state politics and in population per square mile."

only picking one of those and ignoring the other is misleading, because there are very strong trends of statewide quarantines both in terms of state politics and in population per square mile.

a direct response would be preferable, if anyone doesn't mind. addressing 1175 directly would be even more appreciated.

How can the original post we were discussing be a deflection? It's almost like u need to change arguments simce your first one made no sense

[DMT]

Dude, you're wrong. You're like Trump, just keep repeating the same erroneous claim and hope others will start to believe it. KS directly answered your erroneous claim and I repeated it IN BOLD to help you see it. But not only are you not accepting it, you're criticizing everyone else for not swallowing your erroneous claim and being sheep for just going along with the correct counterargument. It's quite pathetic.

You keep listing their population density rankings and acting like that's the extent of the data. And I get it, you just don't understand statistics, but stop digging FFS.

[Judge Jude]

ignore "deflection," then, and just directly respond to either one.

I mean, how hard is that to do?

"There are very strong trends of statewide quarantines both in terms of state politics and in population per square mile."

is that true, or is it not true?

sample responses

"ok, yes obviously that is true."

"no, it's not true because those rankings of states are ......" what?

if you think a sequence of, well, anything, leaves you with 8 states than rank 49, 46, 45, 43, 40, 36, 34, and 19 - and that's a coincidence? really?

also:

I posted this: "There are very strong trends of statewide quarantines both in terms of state politics and in population per square mile"

KS then characterized this statement by claiming: "I think this should effectively refute JJ's argument that party-shutdown link is coincidental."

sample responses:

"Oh, I get it now. that's clearly not an accurate characterization."
or
"I know you wrote that there is a strong trend of statewide quarantines in terms of state politics. in spite of that, I agree with KS that this means that you are arguing that 'party-shutdown link is coincidental.'"

[DMT]

It's not hard to do and we've already done it. When you control for political affiliation of the governor, population density is no longer significant in predicting lockdown orders. Now, if you want to argue the sample is too small to make that argument, fine do that. But just repeating their population density rankings and saying it should be obvious to everyone that you're right isn't going to fly. Almost 1/3 of Republican Governors haven't locked down, while ALL Democratic Governors have.

[GwynnInTheHall]

again with the deflection. amazing.

but in spite of that, I'll actually address your post directly. communication really thrives when that happens - it's worth a try!

It's misleading because these are those state rankings in terms of population density:

Wyoming 49
North Dakota 46
South Dakota 45
Nebraska 43
Utah 40
Iowa 36
Arkansas 34
South Carolina 19

Therefore, "There are very strong trends of statewide quarantines both in terms of state politics and in population per square mile."

only picking one of those and ignoring the other is misleading, because there are very strong trends of statewide quarantines both in terms of state politics and in population per square mile.

a direct response would be preferable, if anyone doesn't mind. addressing 1175 directly would be even more appreciated.

This entire tangent about population is a deflection on your part. the ORIGINAL post that brought about this topic was this by madducks:

Only eight states have not issued stay-at-home orders. All of them have Republican governors.

Arkansas
Iowa
Nebraska
North Dakota
South Carolina
South Dakota
Utah
Wyoming

YOU responded:

The top seven states in death toll from COVID-19 account for 5,876 of the 8,094 reported deaths so far - 73 percent. All of them have Democratic Governors.

This is an obvious attempt to whatabout the Dems and deflect from the fact and INTENT of the original post which is/was--The ONLY states left which REFUSE to follow the advice of the Dr Fauci to STAY THE FUCK AST HOME--have GOP Governors. https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/02/polit...ntv/index.html

It's also a false equivalency.

YOU have a history here of pushing back against GOP/Trump critics and this is no different. When confronted with your false equivalency, you pivoted the conversation to something it was never about--Deaths pre capita--The ORIGNAL post, the one that set this off was about GOP Governors ignoring Fauci to the detriment of their constituents and the country. And NOW you're trying to say We're deflecting?

Incomplete Observation? No it's not they were asked to do something, they have refused--they do NOT know better than the medical experts, they're grandstanding--like most GOP/Trumpists and doing so at the expense of the lives of everyone.

As for your I can drive across Utah for 1100 miles trope--were you driving in a circle? If you drive from the NorthWestern most corner in Utah to the SouthEastern Most corner it's just 400 miles so 1100 Miles? You never crossed a border because you didn't try to so--you've misrepresented the "vastness" of the open spaces you're hinging your argument on.

Another false trope that small town folks spurn outsiders and wouldn't come within 6 ft of em--I'd bet you your house I could walk into pretty much any bar in any of those GOP non stay at home states and not only be welcomed, but have made a couple of friends by closing time.

but again, all this stems from your attempt to divert this conversation from madducks post about GOP governors being irresponsible and ONLY GOP governors. And NO it's not more complicated than that--they were asked to comply, they refused. Period.

NOW if you'd like to have a different conversation about Deaths per capita and the geo political connections, fine--but first admit that it's ONLY the GOP governors defying the medical experts and stop conflating the two topics being discussed here and acknowledge your initial deflection. Or don't and complain about it being nothing more than a liberal echo chamber in here and walk away as you've done in the past.

[Sour Masher]

Point 1: madducks stated that the non-shutdown states all had Republican governors
Point 2: You stated that, because the non-shutdown states were sparsely populated, madducks' Point 1 was misleading.

Point 3: I showed that among the nine most sparsely-populated states, Republican governors had shut down two states and had not shut down four states (33% shutdown rate).
Point 4: I showed that among the nine most sparsely-populated states, Democratic governors had shut down three states (100% shutdown rate).

Point 5: I showed that among the middle tier of population density (30-120 persons/sq.mile), Republican governors had shut down eight states and had not shut down three states (73% shutdown rate).
Point 6: I showed that among the middle tier of population density, Democratic governors had shut down all 11 states and territories (100% shutdown rate).

Point 7: I showed that among the most densely-populated states, Republican governors had shut down nine states and territories and had not shut down one state (90% shutdown rate).
Point 8: I showed that among the most densely-populated states, Democratic governors had shut down all 14 states and territories (100% shutdown rate).

There is a substantial difference in shutdown rate between Republican governors and Democratic governors regardless of the population density. Therefore, madducks' Point 1 was not misleading. Even once population density is accounted for, there is a strong effect from party governance on shutdown status.[/B]

That's an explanation in plain terms. In terms of a statistical model, predicting shutdown status from population density and party of governor, party of governor is significant at the 0.998 confidence level, and population density is not a significant factor once party of governor is known.

That is from post 1164. JJ, I really don't get why you keep saying KS is missing your point and not directly countering it. He did. KS refuted your claim that Madducks post was misleading, because it did not account for the fact that most of the states listed were sparsely populated, and thus that is a factor in why they have not shut down. His counter-claim, based on his math, which I trust, is clearly stated in the comments above in bold. You have been big on backhanded compliments in this debate. You concede KS is smart, but you still choose to treat him and others like they are dumb biased, as if they are the only reasons why they would be "missing your point." But I don't think in this case anyone is missing your point, you seem to be missing the point made above in bold.

Some of your posts come off as if you are speaking slower to us so we can keep up with your far superior intellect. Maybe it is true that you are on another level, but I really cannot see how KS is not addressing your claim in the post above. And I don't think I am being biased or dumb.

You suggested that it isn't just party but population density too that dictates which states have not shut down. KS refuted that by stating that even when you account for population density, party is the deciding factor for who hasn't shut down. Therefore, maducks post not mentioning population density was not leaving out important information in his initial post.

A separate point you and KS and FS and others have disagreed on is more open ended and thus more interesting to me, and that is, are these governors right or wrong? The argument is, does the spread of this thing get impacted by the natural social distancing that occurs in sparsely populated areas? That is an argument I'd like to see data on, because my sense of logic tells me that is probably does (but at FS pointed out, even sparsely populated states have urban centers). I can be convinced either way on this, if someone brings the facts. Either way, I hope we can all agree on the fact that South Carolina not shutting down is egregious.

[fuhrdog]

Either way, I hope we can all agree on that fact that South Carolina not shutting down is egregious.

[GwynnInTheHall]

BTW Kevin, do your numbers take into account that NY, CA and WA are all major international entry states?