Corona Virus

[nots]

I'm that much older parent to my kids--I was 38 and 41 when they were born. I'm a better parent now than I would have been 20 years ago, but I do worry they will both be beating me at sports before they are 10. Hell, my 5 year old is nearly faster than me now.

I was 45 and my wife 44 when our son was born. Some benefits to being an older parent, but athleticism isn’t one of them!

[Kevin Seitzer]

As a way of approaching the question of estimating the mortality rate of coronavirus in the US, absent a failure of the medical system, I wonder if the Louisiana Health Department data is instructive. As of yesterday they have 2305 positive cases, 83 deaths, 676 of the cases are hospitalized, and 239 are on ventilators.

Source: http://ldh.la.gov/Coronavirus/

I read somewhere else that of those who go on ventilators, about 40% will die. I don't if that's true here, or how many of the cases aren't on a ventilator but will be at some point in the future, but that would raise the mortality rate from its current 3.6% of diagnosed cases in Louisiana to 7.7%. That's sobering.

This was seven days ago. Louisiana currently has 9150 positive cases, 310 deaths, 1639 hospitalizations, and 507 on ventilators. That means 227 deaths in the last seven days. I don't know how many of those are cases that proceeded from hospitalization without a ventilator all the way to death in the space of seven days, but that does suggest that the estimate that 40% of those on ventilators will die was probably not too high.

[Ken]

This is what is concerning. I've been trying to track this stat for the past 2 weeks. I think last week it was about 1.4%. I've been hearing that the percentage should be going down as we get better testing, but that doesn't seem to be the case, unless I'm missing something. You would think that as you increase sample size the percentage would drop.

It's partly because of the time component of the virus. There's 14 days on average between the start of symptoms and death for those who die from this. So when you are comparing deaths to total cases, you need to look 14 days into the future for the deaths part of that analysis. OR you need the increase in cases to be flat.

That's the issue I was talking about early on when mortality rates were being discussed.

In order for deaths to cases to match the actual mortality rate, you need a constant increase in cases, whereas the US was previously in an exponential curve.

So as we get closer to stemming the tide, the deaths/cases rate will increase as it approaches the true mortality rate.

[rhd]

Wow, I wasnt expecting this. There's so much to say.

First, thanx to SM, KS, gcstomp, Hornsby and others for their support. Their posts pretty much describe what I'm trying to do w the stats posts and I'm glad they appreciate them. I started posting the stats because I was very concerned about where this was going and wanted to provide some figures on how bad it was getting and how fast it was progressing. It seemed that many people were not taking this crisis seriously enough, including some here, and I wanted to help show that it needs to be taken more seriously. I havent really changed my mind, and the more time that passes the more this seems to me like the 1918 pandemic all over again, which is really bad since maybe 50 million people or more died back then.

I read JJ's comment shortly after he posted it. I wasnt going to respond, but I wondered that if he doesnt think my posts are useful, why not just ignore them? I hadnt read this thread again until a little while ago.

My original plan was to do the update posts every 6 days or so. That's because of Liz Specht's twitter chain that I mentioned before in which she assumed that the world's cases would double about every 6 days. It was her assertion that if the cases kept increasing at the same rate we would have 1 mil cases by the end of April that really shocked me into being even more concerned about this outbreak than I already was. But w/i a few days after my first post, I saw that the cases had already doubled after less than 3 days, which also was a shock. I've been posting them every 2-3 days since. Of course, Specht's prediction turned out to be way too conservative because we'll reach 1 mil cases this afternoon!

My stats arent detailed at all and I'm not doing any in depth analysis of them, just some quick-and-dirty stats. Some of the other posters here, like KS, SM, Ken and others, are going more in depth and I thank them for that.

It's alarming that people in the US and elsewhere in the world still arent taking this seriously enough. People are still acting as if only the elderly and those w existing underlying health problems are the only ones that this poses a serious risk for and that is clearly not the case now. People are still saying that wearing masks doesnt help keep you from getting infected and that also should clearly not be the case now. Hospitals are even accepting any type of masks that people are donating, not just NV-95 masks. Why would they ask for or accept them if they did no good? (BTW, it's a travesty that healthcare workers dont have even basic protection from this virus or not allowed to wear them if they have them. Here's another heartbreaking video re: this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qx1XCAeePWA) I'm wearing my mask always now when I go out in public. I know that you're not supposed to reuse them but I only have a couple of them and I heard that putting them in an oven on low heat (150 degrees is the setting I use) for a few minutes (20 mins is what I use) kills any viruses that may be on them so this is what I'm doing every day after I come home. I would encourage others to try this also. So far, doing this hasnt damaged my mask, but I'm being careful that the strap doesnt come in contact w the metal of the oven rack.

Another thing that I havent posted much about here is China's actions in this. I think the CCP regime is the most evil, despicable and dangerous regime I've seen in my lifetime. It has nothing to do w communism per se; it's a totalitarian regime's insatiable desire for power and their willingness to brutalize and murder their own citizens and exploit the rest of the world to achieve it. This virus outbreak began in China and by trying to ignore it and cover it up they've spread it to every corner of the world. There is evidence that the virus began in a lab very close to the wet market in Wuhan where it is considered the first case occurred https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bpQFCcSI0pU. Now, China is trying to play the hero, saying that they are the savior of the world. They've even written a book about it now in which they blame the virus on the US, saying it was created by the US military and brought to China by US military personnel last year https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sC-HL2Ni8Zo. Never mind that a lot of the supposed "help" they are providing to other countries is faulty equipment. Some of the medical supplies they are now providing to other countries was donated to them to try to help contain their outbreak which they are now selling back instead of donating it. The pandemic is going to be bad enough as it is but to not hold China accountable for what they've done would be even worse.

Stay safe, everyone.

[MagSeven]

Where is Monessen, Pa? Both sides of my family are from the greater Harrisburg area, so I feel like I know a little about Pa, but I have not heard of your town.

Monessen is western pa, about 35 miles south of Pittsburgh. What part of the Harrisburg area? I spent 2 years at PSU's campus in Middletown.

[nots]

Monessen is western pa, about 35 miles south of Pittsburgh. What part of the Harrisburg area? I spent 2 years at PSU's campus in Middletown.

Figures...that’s the part of the state I am least familiar with.
Mom is from Camp Hill and her relatives are from the Chambersburg/St Thomas area.
Dad is from Harrisburg itself—with relatives in McConnellsbrg. His father worked the Harrisburg to Altoona route on the Pa RR. 38 years...missed 7 days of work total.

[Gregg]

Got it Sheriff Gregg

I'm your huckleberry..my hypocrisy knows no bounds.

All kidding aside, I am not the Sheriff, but I am certainly an advocate of this site.

I have seen too many good posters leave the site because it wasn't fun anymore.

[Sour Masher]

I'm your huckleberry..my hypocrisy knows no bounds.

Val Kilmer's greatest role imo.

[The Feral Slasher]

Wow, I wasnt expecting this. There's so much to say.

First, thanx to SM, KS, gcstomp, Hornsby and others for their support. Their posts pretty much describe what I'm trying to do w the stats posts and I'm glad they appreciate them. I started posting the stats because I was very concerned about where this was going and wanted to provide some figures on how bad it was getting and how fast it was progressing. It seemed that many people were not taking this crisis seriously enough, including some here, and I wanted to help show that it needs to be taken more seriously. I havent really changed my mind, and the more time that passes the more this seems to me like the 1918 pandemic all over again, which is really bad since maybe 50 million people or more died back then.

I read JJ's comment shortly after he posted it. I wasnt going to respond, but I wondered that if he doesnt think my posts are useful, why not just ignore them? I hadnt read this thread again until a little while ago.

My original plan was to do the update posts every 6 days or so. That's because of Liz Specht's twitter chain that I mentioned before in which she assumed that the world's cases would double about every 6 days. It was her assertion that if the cases kept increasing at the same rate we would have 1 mil cases by the end of April that really shocked me into being even more concerned about this outbreak than I already was. But w/i a few days after my first post, I saw that the cases had already doubled after less than 3 days, which also was a shock. I've been posting them every 2-3 days since. Of course, Specht's prediction turned out to be way too conservative because we'll reach 1 mil cases this afternoon!

My stats arent detailed at all and I'm not doing any in depth analysis of them, just some quick-and-dirty stats. Some of the other posters here, like KS, SM, Ken and others, are going more in depth and I thank them for that.

It's alarming that people in the US and elsewhere in the world still arent taking this seriously enough. People are still acting as if only the elderly and those w existing underlying health problems are the only ones that this poses a serious risk for and that is clearly not the case now. People are still saying that wearing masks doesnt help keep you from getting infected and that also should clearly not be the case now. Hospitals are even accepting any type of masks that people are donating, not just NV-95 masks. Why would they ask for or accept them if they did no good? (BTW, it's a travesty that healthcare workers dont have even basic protection from this virus or not allowed to wear them if they have them. Here's another heartbreaking video re: this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qx1XCAeePWA) I'm wearing my mask always now when I go out in public. I know that you're not supposed to reuse them but I only have a couple of them and I heard that putting them in an oven on low heat (150 degrees is the setting I use) for a few minutes (20 mins is what I use) kills any viruses that may be on them so this is what I'm doing every day after I come home. I would encourage others to try this also. So far, doing this hasnt damaged my mask, but I'm being careful that the strap doesnt come in contact w the metal of the oven rack.

Another thing that I havent posted much about here is China's actions in this. I think the CCP regime is the most evil, despicable and dangerous regime I've seen in my lifetime. It has nothing to do w communism per se; it's a totalitarian regime's insatiable desire for power and their willingness to brutalize and murder their own citizens and exploit the rest of the world to achieve it. This virus outbreak began in China and by trying to ignore it and cover it up they've spread it to every corner of the world. There is evidence that the virus began in a lab very close to the wet market in Wuhan where it is considered the first case occurred https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bpQFCcSI0pU. Now, China is trying to play the hero, saying that they are the savior of the world. They've even written a book about it now in which they blame the virus on the US, saying it was created by the US military and brought to China by US military personnel last year https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sC-HL2Ni8Zo. Never mind that a lot of the supposed "help" they are providing to other countries is faulty equipment. Some of the medical supplies they are now providing to other countries was donated to them to try to help contain their outbreak which they are now selling back instead of donating it. The pandemic is going to be bad enough as it is but to not hold China accountable for what they've done would be even worse.

Stay safe, everyone.

I wore a mask today for the first time, thanks for point about how to disinfect for future use

[DMT]

Val Kilmer's greatest role imo.

He was great but I think his best role was Mr Mojo Risin. He so embodied him that he went into rehab afterward. And he wasn't even nominated for best actor, a damn travesty.

[rhd]

World just passed 1 mil CV-19 cases

[Judge Jude]

ok, some numbers:

NJ COVID-19

total deaths (reported) as of 3/23: 27
then
3/24 - 17
3/25 - 18
3/26 - 19
3/27 - 27
3/28 - 32
3/29 - 21
3/30 - 37
3/31 - 69
4/1 - 91
4/2 - 182

[GwynnInTheHall]

The recent pages remind me of a time when I worked with a group of really excellent managers/supervisors, each of whom were very good at parts/all of their gigs. BUT we all had some trouble relating to each other--We went to a leadership/management retreat for a couple of days during which we took an extensive Jungian personality test. Hours spent answering seemingly tedious questions and when it was done and results were back, it was interesting to find--we almost all agreed on most things--however, we process information differently, communicate differently, need input in a certain manner to comprehend, calculate and respond. It was fascinating and pretty spot on.

It's easy to see likeminded processes and divergent manners of output/input in this forum, which I believe leads to some of the confusion/mistaken meaning we sometimes run into.

I know they're not free, but it sure would be interesting to have everyone take the test and share results in hopes to find better ways to communicate with each other--It's not like we don't have the time right now

Just a thought.

[Gregg]

Val Kilmer's greatest role imo.

Yes Sir!

He lost Best Supporting Oscar to Tommy Lee Jones in the Fugitive. Nice movie but no Tombstone. Nice acting but no Kilmer!

[Sour Masher]

He was great but I think his best role was Mr Mojo Risin. He so embodied him that he went into rehab afterward. And he wasn't even nominated for best actor, a damn travesty.

Yes, that is his other greatest role. Let's focus on those two and forget he was ever batman .