Corona Virus

[Sour Masher]

this has been mentioned here before, but what do any of these stats except deaths even mean? (and even there, we don't know if cases linked to this virus are getting underreported or overreported).

it almost feels like an ever-evolving WAR issue - "this Hall of Famer is the 7th-best pitcher of all time! ok, check that, he's 13th-best."

we know what's really bad - and really good.

but I still don't get the need to quantify the so-far unquantifiable.

is it a desire to feel less helpless, and thus more in command of the current situation?

I can appreciate that as a coping mechanism. but it seems like that mechanism gets promoted as hardcore tangible data that, let's face it, we just don't have.

"47,292 deaths worldwide, up from 37,845, a 25% increase which is about the same rate of increase as last time (23%)."

there is no question, to any sane person, that these numbers are off by double-digit totals and percents from the actual reality. is that in dispute here? garbage in, garbage out.

I think your question was earnest, JJ, so I will answer it earnestly from my perspective.

Yes, the data we have in imprecise, but it is not garbage. I think RHD is trying to show the trends, because that helps us see where this is going and can anticipate when we may hit our first peak. That is valuable information, because it gives us a rough sense for when numbers may start falling and life can return closer to normal. At least, that is how I see the meaning and usefulness of what RHD is doing.

The numbers, so far, have been useful to look at, because they paint a more extreme peak and longer curve than what the WH has suggested. That is a useful corrective, because if we just relying on our fearless leader, we'd have all thought we'd be packing the churches by Easter. That is not going to happen and the numbers RHD has been posting called that before Trump conceded it. So while these numbers won't give us precise totals for infections and deaths--we may not have a full accounting of those for some time--it does give us useful information and helps us know, generally, how bad this will get, and when it will be over.

ETA: Early on your response to this was it wasn't going to be a big deal; that you were going to carry on as normal. That is how most Americans responded, because they were not being told what was likely to happen. This board helped me see what was coming before the MSM did. FS's post about the Washington area gave the warning call. Now, posts by RHD and others help me get a sense of where we are now--seemingly more accurate than if I just clicked on the main headlines about this thing from the MSM. They are behind the curve.

To put it in baseball terms, this is like looking at the daily box scores rather than waiting for BA's hot stove reports to tell us who is doing well.

[In the Corn]

Serious question here:

Any chance that insurance companies grab on to the President's war language? And try to cite that deaths due to COVID-19 where in wartime thus nullifying the claim?

I can just see some lawyer and bean counter at each of these companies trying to make the claim.

[Ken]

If you dont like what he is saying, put him on mute or dont respond. Judge Jude has been a long time poster on here and often brings different insights that cut against the grain of the room.Im glad he's here and think he deserves more than a 'shut the hell up'.

He just called me an idiot rather than responding to my post and I can't tell him to shut the hell up simply because he "has been a long time poster on here".

OK, if you say so....

[Ken]

Nope, do not move along. This is the hot button topic thread and you are not the Sheriff of it.

Right, I shouldn't tell him to move along as he calls me an idiot rather than actually posting anything related to this discussion. Got it Sheriff Gregg.

It is very important that we keep our own numbers strong. I am sick and tired of losing good members because of the lack of grace when there are opposing viewpoints.

Yeah, you are right - his "What you've just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard." was full of grace.

Good Lord.

[Sour Masher]

He just called me an idiot rather than responding to my post and I can't tell him to shut the hell up simply because he "has been a long time poster on here".

OK, if you say so....

He was quoting the Adam Sandler movie Billy Madison--his entire post was a quote. The insult is still there, but the blow is softened by the reference, as it is kind of tongue in cheek.

I'd say it is a testament to your cinematic tastes that you did not recognize the quote, but I think JJ used it rather than a direct reply to lighten the mood.

[Ken]

He was quoting the Adam Sandler movie Billy Madison--his entire post was a quote. The insult is still there, but the blow is softened by the reference, as it is kind of tongue in cheek.

I'd say it is a testament to your cinematic tastes that you did not recognize the quote, but I think JJ used it rather than a direct reply to lighten the mood.

Gotcha, thanks for the reference. And as you say, still an attempt at a backhanded insult trying to hide behind the humor. Pretty pathetic and passive aggressive really.

Your analysis above was spot on Sour Masher.

Putting our heads in the sand because someone doesn't understand the data that we do have available (even if incomplete) is the last thing we need to be doing.

[Kevin Seitzer]

I think your question was earnest, JJ, so I will answer it earnestly from my perspective.

Yes, the data we have in imprecise, but it is not garbage. I think RHD is trying to show the trends, because that helps us see where this is going and can anticipate when we may hit our first peak. That is valuable information, because it gives us a rough sense for when numbers may start falling and life can return closer to normal. At least, that is how I see the meaning and usefulness of what RHD is doing.

The numbers, so far, have been useful to look at, because they paint a more extreme peak and longer curve than what the WH has suggested. That is a useful corrective, because if we just relying on our fearless leader, we'd have all thought we'd be packing the churches by Easter. That is not going to happen and the numbers RHD has been posting called that before Trump conceded it. So while these numbers won't give us precise totals for infections and deaths--we may not have a full accounting of those for some time--it does give us useful information and helps us know, generally, how bad this will get, and when it will be over.

ETA: Early on your response to this was it wasn't going to be a big deal; that you were going to carry on as normal. That is how most Americans responded, because they were not being told what was likely to happen. This board helped me see what was coming before the MSM did. FS's post about the Washington area gave the warning call. Now, posts by RHD and others help me get a sense of where we are now--seemingly more accurate than if I just clicked on the main headlines about this thing from the MSM. They are behind the curve.

To put it in baseball terms, this is like looking at the daily box scores rather than waiting for BA's hot stove reports to tell us who is doing well.

I can think of a number of things that the numbers help me understand. Given that I am not in a healthcare or epidemiology job, the main practical import is that I understand the seriousness of keeping my family at home and practicing hygiene and social distancing. Nonetheless, I like learning about a major event that is happening in the world, and I enjoy doing it from a data perspective.

Some of the things I learn about from following the data closely:
1. The exponential spread of the virus.
2. Some understanding of the mortality rate, which is imperfect in ways discussed several times in this thread. Spending some time with the data over time gives some perspective on this which one may not get if one just reads the figures quoted in the news.
3. Which areas of the country are experiencing the biggest growth in cases and might be headed for issues in overwhelming the healthcare system
4. How the testing rates correlate with measured case rates and which areas are testing better than others
5. How much impact social distancing/isolation measures have on the growth of cases and when, both in our country and in other parts of the world
6. When case rates begin to level off in various areas of the country (as they did in Washington state in late March) and whether they experience a resurgence if/when social distancing measures are lifted
7. How the virus affects different demographics (sex, age)

In my experience, the media reporting on these things both lags by a few days and doesn't report on many of the features I find interesting.

[Judge Jude]

Thank you all for the insights - very helpful.

[Hornsby]

I think that the information and the numbers that rhd, SM and others bring to the table are invaluable. And this is coming from a guy who is admittedly NOT a math guy, hell I'm barely a basic numbers guy. Information is power, and if I don't understand, I go and look it up so I DO understand.

Obviously, right now the situation can be frightening and bewildering, so the more information we have, the better. We won't get out of this pandemic by Trumpian bluster, or burying our heads in the sand...it'll come from science, research, and many people SHARING information. So keep it coming fellas...

[Ken]

I think that the information and the numbers that rhd, SM and others bring to the table is invaluable. And this is coming from a guy who is admittedly NOT a math guy, hell I'm barely a basic numbers guy. Information is power, and if I don't understand, I go and look it up so I DO understand.

Obviously, right now the situation can be frightening and bewildering, so the more information we have, the better. We won't get out of this pandemic by Trumpian bluster, or burying our heads in the sand...it'll come from science, research, and many people SHARING information. So keep it coming fellas...

Yes, this is exactly what I was trying to say. I took JJ's post about the numbers being garbage as an attempt to stop the information flow in this thread. And that information is very useful.

Apologies to Judge Jude and all for not saying it better/nicer like a few others here have done.

[gcstomp]

I for one vote thumbs up on rhd posting the updated numbers. Heck, I vote for anything rhd wants to do, as long as it means when we get back to some semblance of normalcy, rhd posts his farm rankings which I miss. I miss the baseball season morning stats, and normalcy in everything. Every thing. I have it easy I know. Home with wife, dog, food in fridge and pantry. Though we have no milk, and drinking morning coffee without milk is masochistic, but skipping the coffee is even worse.

Wife has been tele working, she is a stem (science, tech, math) teacher, all the students have computers, and at the minimum, they just have to check in daily and present something to show they put an effort to learning. I think I can make do with 1 trip out every week for food and supplies, presciptions, our dog requires fresh pet food because of course he is a prince and dry food is not ok.

I am sure I am not the only one who wakes up and wonders how this will play out, and how it all seems like the start of a cheesy end of the world movie plot . How I guess this is our call to action, our WW2 moment of storming the beach against a hail of lethal fire. But we are being called to stay the f home and stop spread of infection. In that simple ask, my florida brethren are failing miserably. The beach going youth who say they feel fine so they will do what they want, its not that they dont get that they are spreading the infection to their older family who may end up hospitalized, or dead. Its that they dont care enough to stop from doing what they want.

I am not impressed at U.S. handling, from top of course, with prez making every error one could think of. Why wont he nationalize distribution of PPE rather than this lord of the flies every state for themselves as they bid each other up to acquire the same supplies. Why are we not outraged that PPE are being allocated by whether states are D or R, with R getting everything they request.This is a prez literally costing lives for political reasons. Are we going to have some reckoning for those lawmakers who sold off prior to market crash with their insider knowledge? Anyhoo, moving on. I am saddened by the response all the way down to the call at home orders being largely ignored. I get it, there are so many loopholes that anyone, biz or individual, can claim to be exempt, and there arent the harsh penalties of our overseas infected. The tp hoarding at stores, I am amused by it but that also makes me understand we are more lord of the flies than star trek looking out for one another.

I wish everyone well. Hoard your guns and your tp if it makes you feel empowered. I have hope we will be ok a year from now. But things suck right now as we look at the coming weeks.

[Judge Jude]

I'm fine with people posting whatever they want. we also inevitably have different ways of analyzing things.

being so close to the current geographic epicenter, I do feel fortunate to be both pretty old but also having much older parents (age 43 and 39 when I was born). meaning, they both grew up in The Great Depression, and it was.... brutal. then when they were dating, it was off to World War II for my father.

so they were separated for 3 years, part of which time he was flying B-17 missions over Germany as a bombardier. his co-pilot was KIA on one mission, as the artillery fire-damaged plane limped back to England. basically, I really am lucky to be here.

that there might be a lot of the disconnect? not sure.

also, that I don't quite grasp any urge to try to accurately quantify doesn't mean it can't be of use to others. we're all trying to process everything in our own way. carry on.

[MagSeven]

Another update. Last stats were from 3/30 at 9:31 PM, a little more than 2 days ago:

The US mortality rate is now 2.37%, which is much higher than 2 days ago, 1.92%.

This is what is concerning. I've been trying to track this stat for the past 2 weeks. I think last week it was about 1.4%. I've been hearing that the percentage should be going down as we get better testing, but that doesn't seem to be the case, unless I'm missing something. You would think that as you increase sample size the percentage would drop.

This virus is a concern for Mrs Mag and me since we are both in our 60s. The only saving grace is that we live on a dead end with a walking path, 2 finch thistle sock feeders off each porch, and jigsaw puzzles to keep us entertained. Plus, Netflix and Prime Video for watching. Yesterday there were 6 turkeys roosting in the trees in the woods behind our house.

I go out once a week for necessities; I don't think I'll have to go anywhere for awhile since we've stocked up on everything we will need. We just need paper towels.
I hope everyone stays safe and healthy - I don't want to be a statistic and I don't want any of you to become one either.

[nots]

This is what is concerning. I've been trying to track this stat for the past 2 weeks. I think last week it was about 1.4%. I've been hearing that the percentage should be going down as we get better testing, but that doesn't seem to be the case, unless I'm missing something. You would think that as you increase sample size the percentage would drop.

This virus is a concern for Mrs Mag and me since we are both in our 60s. The only saving grace is that we live on a dead end with a walking path, 2 finch thistle sock feeders off each porch, and jigsaw puzzles to keep us entertained. Plus, Netflix and Prime Video for watching. Yesterday there were 6 turkeys roosting in the trees in the woods behind our house.

I go out once a week for necessities; I don't think I'll have to go anywhere for awhile since we've stocked up on everything we will need. We just need paper towels.
I hope everyone stays safe and healthy - I don't want to be a statistic and I don't want any of you to become one either.

Where is Monessen, Pa? Both sides of my family are from the greater Harrisburg area, so I feel like I know a little about Pa, but I have not heard of your town.

[Sour Masher]

I do feel fortunate to be both pretty old but also having much older parents (age 43 and 39 when I was born).

I'm that much older parent to my kids--I was 38 and 41 when they were born. I'm a better parent now than I would have been 20 years ago, but I do worry they will both be beating me at sports before they are 10. Hell, my 5 year old is nearly faster than me now.