Corona Virus

[Sour Masher]

Expanding on the PEPFAR thing--to think that a mere $3 billion investment in public health may have helped save millions of lives. Think of how much good we could be doing for relatively small sums compared to our Defense Budget. Think of how much hardship we could have avoided with this pandemic if we had spent just some of those resources preparing better for this. It is clear at this point that the US was woefully under-prepared, and while our current efforts may help us avoid the worst case of two or more million dead, our poor preparedness will still cost us 100s of thousands of lives that could have been saved.

Despite the current WH models, which, btw, seem to inch up each day, I still say we will be fortunate if we come out of this thing with under 500k dead (fortunately for the world, other countries have done better than us, so we may end up the hardest hit by this). We may get more than half way there with just the first wave of this thing at our current pace, and I continue to fear that our stamina, especially at the top, for economic shutdown will make a long shutdown in the Fall if/when this reemerges unlikely, which could lead to worse outcomes.

[Sour Masher]

Perhaps I spoke too soon about the US running away with the title of worst prepared country for COVID-19. This article claims that Italy is far under-reporting deaths from the disease by thousands of cases. It does not portend well for the worst hit places, like my state, in the US. And it doesn't even take into account those that will die for lack of medicine, treatment, and care or because they fear going to the hospital while this pandemic is raging. That figure is likely to be thousands more and may not be taken into account for years. We may never know the full figure for this.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...vvc?li=BBnb7Kz

"Italy’s hidden death toll shows what could lie in store for the worst-hit areas of the U.S., Europe and many other countries in the weeks ahead if the coronavirus is not tamed fast. The burden that the pandemic puts on health-care systems can cause so many deaths that it is hard to gauge the full human cost.

As stretched and sometimes overwhelmed hospitals fight to save their patients, many other people die unseen and uncounted, including elderly people in out-of-the-way locations. In addition, the health-care crisis can lead to a surge of deaths from other causes that would normally be treatable.

“There are many more dead than are officially declared. But this is not a j’accuse. People died and they were never tested because time and resources are limited,” Eugenio Fossati, deputy mayor of Coccaglio, says of deaths caused by the virus.

[cardboardbox]

Absurd. If we were at war, I could see making this decision. Given the ages and fitness level of the crews, the risk is relatively minimal, but there is no reason to take that risk at all given that we are not at war and won't be at war. None, despite the 100s of billions a year we spend "just in case." . Also, there is risk that the virus could spread to others--what is the plan, keep them on the ship until everyone gets it? And no way the ship would be properly equipped in case several cases go critical.

Depends what the ages of the crew are. Taking a carrier offline for many weeks while its crew goes through multiple rounds of isolation isnt an ideal situation. And what if other carriers end up having the same problem? All our carriers dock and wait through a month of isolation?

I'm not well versed in details of military, but if all the carriers in a fleet were out of commission, wouldnt the rest of the fleet be unable to sail without air cover in case of an attack?

[Sour Masher]

I'm not well versed in details of military, but if all the carriers in a fleet were out of commission, wouldnt the rest of the fleet be unable to sail without air cover in case of an attack?

But that's the thing. If this were a risk, I could see it. But where is the risk? Are they afraid to expose to the people that all these things are not really needed? IDK. I just do not see anyone attacking us in the near future. Even if we are caught flat-footed, the full force and might of the American military would destroy any foe. Everyone knows that. No one would use the cover of this pandemic to start a war with us.

Also, why would this take out all the carriers? There are other ways to keep this going. The ships are self-contained, so they could just test, then isolate for a period crew members before letting them board. That way, the virus isn't on board. They can also put facilities in place to quarantine anyone that somehow is infected.

[cardboardbox]

But that's the thing. If this were a risk, I could see it. But where is the risk? Are they afraid to expose to the people that all these things are not really needed? IDK. I just do not see anyone attacking us in the near future. Even if we are caught flat-footed, the full force and might of the American military would destroy any foe. Everyone knows that. No one would use the cover of this pandemic to start a war with us.

Also, why would this take out all the carriers? There are other ways to keep this going. The ships are self-contained, so they could just test, then isolate for a period crew members before letting them board. That way, the virus isn't on board. They can also put facilities in place to quarantine anyone that somehow is infected.

Naval ships are very tight, carriers even more so, subs are the worst. Its probably one of the absolute easiest places for a contagious virus to spread. I said this could take all our carriers offline because they will might all eventually have outbreaks. That could take all our fleets off the board, but hopefully not all at the same time. I suspect a fleet can do without some of its non-carrier ships and still be effective, but without the carriers the fleet is not going anywhere. Someone correct me if I'm wrong, I'm not exactly military smart.

[madducks]

Dr. Anthony Fauci, the country's top medical expert on the coronavirus pandemic and a member of President Donald Trump's coronavirus task force, is receiving death threats and now requires personal security from law enforcement at all times, including at his home.

Fauci was among the health advisers on Trump's team encouraging a continuation of the current guidelines after the President heard from business leaders and some conservative allies that the restrictions were more damaging than the virus itself.

[rhd]

Another update. Last stats were from 3/30 at 9:31 PM, a little more than 2 days ago:

- 216,553 cases in US, up from 163,862, a 32% increase. That's the same increase as last time (32%), in a slightly longer time but about the same rate. The US has almost twice the # of cases of any other country. We project to pass 1 million cases by 4/8.
- 5130 deaths in US, up from 3148, a 63% increase which is a much larger increase than last time (42%). Wyoming is the only state that has not yet reported a death and American Samoa is the only territory. The US mortality rate is now 2.37%, which is much higher than 2 days ago, 1.92%.
- 936,597 cases worldwide, up from 783,334, a 20% increase which is about the same rate of increase as last time (18%). 855,008 of these are outside of mainland China, up from 701,829, a 22% increase, which is about the same rate of increase as last time (21%).
- 47,292 deaths worldwide, up from 37,845, a 25% increase which is about the same rate of increase as last time (23%). 43,980 deaths are outside of China, up from 34,541, a 27% increase which is a larger increase than last time (21%). Mortality rates continue to rise. The world mortality rate is 5.05%, up from 4.83%. Italy's mortality rate is 11.9%, up from 11.4%, Spain's is 9.0%, up from 8.8%, France's is 7.1%, up from 6.8% and UK's is 8.0%, up from 6.4%. Germany's is still low, 1.2% but also rising.
- 206 countries/territories/etc. have confirmed cases w suspected cases in 1 other (North Korea), up from 204. There are only 18 countries, 12 of which are island republics, that have not reported deaths: Lesotho, South Sudan, Malawi, Yemen, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, Comoros, Kiribati, Marshall Is., Micronesia, Nauru, Palau, Samoa, Sao Tome and Principe, Solomon Is., Tonga, Tuvalu, Vanuatu.

Cases continue to rise at about the same rate and death rates have increased slightly. I've heard that things in Iran are much worse than they are reporting and also in Russia and Turkey. And India seems ripe for an outbreak.

[Judge Jude]

this has been mentioned here before, but what do any of these stats except deaths even mean? (and even there, we don't know if cases linked to this virus are getting underreported or overreported).

it almost feels like an ever-evolving WAR issue - "this Hall of Famer is the 7th-best pitcher of all time! ok, check that, he's 13th-best."

we know what's really bad - and really good.

but I still don't get the need to quantify the so-far unquantifiable.

is it a desire to feel less helpless, and thus more in command of the current situation?

I can appreciate that as a coping mechanism. but it seems like that mechanism gets promoted as hardcore tangible data that, let's face it, we just don't have.

"47,292 deaths worldwide, up from 37,845, a 25% increase which is about the same rate of increase as last time (23%)."

there is no question, to any sane person, that these numbers are off by double-digit totals and percents from the actual reality. is that in dispute here? garbage in, garbage out.

[TranaGreg]

...
but I still don't get the need to quantify the so-far unquantifiable.

is it a desire to feel less helpless, and thus more in command of the current situation?
...

and is there anything wrong with that? if it is a need to feel somewhat in control or at least understand somewhat what is seemingly an incomprehensible situation (we have no real precedent for this in our lifetimes, and really ever given how different our society is from the last time anything like this happened) ... isn't that okay? won't that help people to cope?

[Judge Jude]

I didn't say there was anything wrong with it.

I just don't understand it.

[Ken]

I didn't say there was anything wrong with it.

I just don't understand it.

You must not do much data analysis.

It's extremely common that you don't have perfect data. The majority of the time that is the case.

So you have a choice. You can throw your hands up and quit, or you can look at the data you DO have and try to make sense of it with the understanding it is not perfect. And then you can try to put boundaries around the unknowns.

It sounds like you are the quitting type though.

[Judge Jude]

What you've just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard.

At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought.

Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.

[Ken]

What you've just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard.

At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought.

Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.

Do you have anything to add? Or just more garbage like this complaining about people like rhd who are actually doing analysis? Seriously just shut the hell up if you have nothing to say, this thread has a ton of good information, no one needs your whining about how the information isn't perfect.

You don't understand. We get it. Now move along.

[nots]

Do you have anything to add? Or just more garbage like this complaining about people like rhd who are actually doing analysis? Seriously just shut the hell up if you have nothing to say, this thread has a ton of good information, no one needs your whining about how the information isn't perfect.

You don't understand. We get it. Now move along.

If you dont like what he is saying, put him on mute or dont respond. Judge Jude has been a long time poster on here and often brings different insights that cut against the grain of the room.Im glad he's here and think he deserves more than a 'shut the hell up'.

[Gregg]

Do you have anything to add? Or just more garbage like this complaining about people like rhd who are actually doing analysis? Seriously just shut the hell up if you have nothing to say, this thread has a ton of good information, no one needs your whining about how the information isn't perfect.

You don't understand. We get it. Now move along.

Nope, do not move along. This is the hot button topic thread and you are not the Sheriff of it.

It is very important that we keep our own numbers strong. I am sick and tired of losing good members because of the lack of grace when there are opposing viewpoints.

B-Fly would be a good example of grace and communication with differing ideas and beliefs.

This is not just written to you Ken.