Corona Virus

[rhd]

NYT shows 1400 deaths in most recent daily count. 2000 does not seem unreasonable based on increasing number of cases. I certainly hope he is wrong

Average daily deaths this week so far is a little over 1200. We may very well may get to 2000 average daily deaths in the near future. But I think it will take longer than 3 weeks.

[The Feral Slasher]

That's cases, not deaths. Deaths are not rising nearly as fast as cases.

That is because they lag. Is it reasonable to see a 70% increase in cases in two weeks and not expect a corresponding increase in deaths. Cases are skyrocketing....deaths likely to follow.


Edit: to quote something I saw, "I hope i'm wrong, but i'm not"

[rhd]

That is because they lag. Is it reasonable to see a 70% increase in cases in two weeks and not expect a corresponding increase in deaths. Cases are skyrocketing....deaths likely to follow.

Yes, we can expect a corresponding increase in deaths but not until about 3 weeks from now. That's because it takes about 3 weeks for a death to be reported from a case. That's according to the CDC. Over the last 3 weeks, the increases in case rates over those from the prior week have been 11.0%, 27.0% and 16.9% respectively. So, if we get death rate increases corresponding to these, then the average deaths per day in the next 3 weeks will be 1039*1.11=1153 for the 1st week, 1.27*1153=1464 for the 2nd week and 1.169*1464=1711 for the 3rd week, which is less than 2000. Now, if you go to the 4th week, using the increase in case rates we've seen so far this week (65.6% by my calculations), you get 1.656*1711=2833. So not too much more than 3 weeks. But I think my assertion was correct.

[The Feral Slasher]

Yes, we can expect a corresponding increase in deaths but not until about 3 weeks from now. That's because it takes about 3 weeks for a death to be reported form a case. That's according to the CDC. Over the last 3 weeks, the increases in case rates over those from the prior week have been 11.0%, 27.0% and 16.9% respectively. So, if we get death rate increases corresponding to these, then the average deaths per day in the next 3 weeks will be 1039*1.11=1153 for the 1st week, 1.27*1153=1464 for the 2nd week and 1.169*1464=1711 for the 3rd week, which is less than 2000. Now, if you go to the 4th week, using the increase in case rates we've seen so far this week (65.6% by my calculations), you get 1.656*1711=2833. So not too much more than 3 weeks. But I think my assertion was correct.

I guess we will see in three weeks. Also by your calculations there will be 1700 deaths per day after three weeks and 2800 after 4. So not really sure why u made a point of disputing my original post. You think it will be 1700 instead of 2000. not really worth arguing about

[rhd]

I guess we will see in three weeks

Yes, I'm curious to see what the rate is then. I expect the unexpected from this pandemic but I dont know what the unexpected will be.

[Ken]

Yes, we can expect a corresponding increase in deaths but not until about 3 weeks from now. That's because it takes about 3 weeks for a death to be reported from a case. That's according to the CDC. Over the last 3 weeks, the increases in case rates over those from the prior week have been 11.0%, 27.0% and 16.9% respectively. So, if we get death rate increases corresponding to these, then the average deaths per day in the next 3 weeks will be 1039*1.11=1153 for the 1st week, 1.27*1153=1464 for the 2nd week and 1.169*1464=1711 for the 3rd week, which is less than 2000. Now, if you go to the 4th week, using the increase in case rates we've seen so far this week (65.6% by my calculations), you get 1.656*1711=2833. So not too much more than 3 weeks. But I think my assertion was correct.

I think you are oversimplifying it and leaving out some important factors, but we'll see. Remember the "about 3 weeks" is more of a curve than a point in time. Some may die far more quickly (elderly for example), some may take longer. Think of it like a bell curve centered on 3 weeks. You don't have to wait for the center of that curve to hit to see the increases in deaths.

[Kevin Seitzer]

The CFR has hovered at around 1.8% since coming off the early peak around 5-6% in April. We're at 125,000 cases per day now. That means that daily deaths are going to average at least 2200 or so in a few weeks. And if daily cases keep going up, as they seem to be doing, then eventually the daily deaths are going to go even higher than that.

This is a Twitter thread that says basically the same thing I just said and puts some evidence behind it:

https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1326404894954283008

[Kevin Seitzer]

When the big surge of cases hit the South in June, everyone was saying the same thing, that deaths weren't following because testing had increased so much and treatments had improved. And then in July, a big wave of deaths came, and everybody forgot they made those arguments. This is just repeating that.

Daily deaths were in the 500-600 range as cases surged in June, and they even dropped to a low of 478 daily average on July 6, which people took as proof that things were not actually getting worse. But then, inevitably, the deaths followed, peaking in the 1100-1200 range through the first half of August.

[heyelander]

When the big surge of cases hit the South in June, everyone was saying the same thing, that deaths weren't following because testing had increased so much and treatments had improved. And then in July, a big wave of deaths came, and everybody forgot they made those arguments. This is just repeating that.

Daily deaths were in the 500-600 range as cases surged in June, and they even dropped to a low of 478 daily average on July 6, which people took as proof that things were not actually getting worse. But then, inevitably, the deaths followed, peaking in the 1100-1200 range through the first half of August.

Also as cases and deaths increase, that improved care is going to be increasing stressed and inevitably less efficient.

[Steve 2.0]

Also as cases and deaths increase, that improved care is going to be increasingLY stressed and inevitably less efficient.

I have your back.

[The Feral Slasher]

I have your back.

When do you plan to return it ?

[Kevin Seitzer]

When do you plan to return it ?

He's using it for the heavy lifting.

[rhd]

Another day, another record: 161,541 new cases according to WorldoMeters.

Edit: 163,405 according to NY Times.

[nullnor]

discovering a vaccine so quickly for covid could also be seen as an indictment of profit vs cure. vaccines are not very profitable. not that everything can be cured.

in contrast, if you need the economy to find a cure, how can you shut down the economy to do it.

[nullnor]

science doesn't really know the difference between capitalism and communism. it thrives under Russia, China or the United States.

yet, the worst hit societies were democracies as we were harder to influence and social distance and wear masks, and we rioted. perhaps the future survival of an intelligent species is best served by communism and authoritarianism.

democracy and voting is just a blip. because left to ourselves our species runs amok.