Corona Virus

[Sour Masher]

This is a great article, highly recommended.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/a...tainty/610819/

Yeah, great read. I hope some others here read it too. Thanks for posting it. It basically, touches on every conversation we have had in here, from how deaths get counted compared to the flu, to how the stats are counted, to the drugs, the experts, everything.

[rhd]

This is a great article, highly recommended.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/a...tainty/610819/

Thanx for the link, I thought the article was OK but not particularly impressive.

I noted that it mentioned a study from Santa Clara County, CA that found that the actual # of infected was 2.5%-4.2%. Using the midpoint of these (3.4%), this would give a nationwide total of about 11.22 mil cases, which is about 10x the actual reported cases, about 1.095 mil. This would give an actual mortality of 0.58% and, based on a 30% infection rate, the total # of US deaths for pandemic would be about 574,000, similar to the figure I got from the NY study and similar to my previous guesstimates. However, just using the figures from Santa Clara County, you'd get 65,552 cases, which is about 30x the actual Santa Clara cases. Santa Clara's mortality rate based on reported cases is 5.13%, so that would give an actual mortality rate of only 0.17%, which seems very unrealistic. You'd get only 168,000 total US deaths based on this rate.

[rhd]

Another stats update as of 7:46 AM today. Last stats were from 4/28 at 7:46 AM, exactly 3 days ago:

- 1.095,304 cases in US, up from 1,010,507, a 8.4% increase, which is a smaller increase than last time (9.2%). The increases of the last 6 days give a doubling rate of about every 25 days. The new cases for this period were 84,797 compared to 84,749 for last time, for a ratio of 1.00, which is much higher that last time (0.86) but I think the comparison w 2 periods ago gives a more accurate picture. The new cases for 2 periods ago was 98,400 so a comparison w this period's new cases gives a rate of 0.86, which is much better than last time (0.99).
- 63,871 deaths in US, up from 56,803, a 12.4% increase which is a much larger increase than last time (8.8%). The increases of the last 6 days give a doubling rate of about every 20.75 days. At this rate, the US projects to hit 100,000 deaths by about May 14. The US mortality rate is now 5.83%, up from, 5.62%.
- 3,327,670 cases worldwide, up from 3,081,685, a 8.0% increase which is about the same increase as last time (8.1%). The new cases for this period were 245,985 compared to 231,578 for last time, for a ratio of 1.06 which is higher than last time (0.87) but I think the comparison w 2 periods ago gives a more accurate picture. The new cases for 2 periods ago was 265,924 so a comparison w this period's new cases gives a rate of 0.93, which is lower than last time (0.99).
- 234,492 deaths worldwide, up from 212,439, a 10.4% increase which is a larger increase than last time (7.1%). The world mortality rate is 7.05%, up from 6.89%. Italy's mortality rate is 13.61%, up slightly from 13.53%, Belgium's is 15.71%, up from 15.49%, Spain's is 10.24%, about the same as last time (10.26%), France's is 14.43%, up from 14.05%, UK's is 15.63%, way up from 13.42% and Germany's is 4.08%, up from 3.87%.
- 215 countries/territories/etc. have confirmed cases w suspected cases in 1 other (North Korea), same as last time. There are only 14 countries, 11 of which are island republics, that have neither reported nor have suspected cases: Lesotho, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, Comoros, Kiribati, Marshall Is., Micronesia, Nauru, Palau, Samoa, Solomon Is., Tonga, Tuvalu, Vanuatu. The vast majority of countries have at least 1 death, w Vietnam having the most cases w no reported deaths, 270.

Rates of increase increased slightly but the new cases rates seem to continue to get better for both the US and the world. Cases continue to surge in Russia and have also surged in recent weeks in Brazil.

[Teenwolf]

Canadian government has been extremely awesome and helpful during the lockdown. I thought I would share my experience.

First, they introduced a separate form of unemployment eligible to anybody who earned more than $5K in 2019 who lost their job due to COVID-19. These folks receive $2K/mth for up to 4 months. The length may well be extended. As a summer seasonal worker, I had a job in a record store part-time through the winter. When I lost that, I became eligible for $2K/mth until my landscaping comes back (allowed to start on Monday, but I'm waiting 1 extra week so I don't have to pay back any of my 2nd $2K check.) Application process was made so simple, national phoneline, confirm you are eligible yourself, and the automated voice tells you you'll get your $2K in a couple of days. This has eased the pressure from people who may otherwise be protesting to re-open the country, although that type of idiotic right winger also exists up here. All the oilpatch greedy Alberta halfwits, mostly, but at least we don't have armed militia's blocking provincial offices.

Second, small businesses with 2019 payroll payouts above a threshold ($25K-$50K minimum) are eligible to receive a $40K interest-free loan, with $30K due to be repaid Jan. 1st 2023. The key to it is that you need to spend the money, you can't just sit on it and return $30K later. So it incentivizes businesses to spend more money to boost the flagging economy. I only have part-timers that I pay cash, so I didn't qualify, but my former boss got his $40K in only a few days. How amazing would that be for nots' restaurants?

There's also wage subsidies for businesses, gov't paying 75-85% of essential worker wages. There's bonus pay for frontline healthcare workers (I believe all received a $4/hr raise). There's rental subsidies in some provinces, up to $300/person or $500/couple paid directly to landlords. How much would this help Revo? I'm curious if any of Revo's renters fell short. I heard 10-15% of all rentals went unpaid in March in Canada, so I'd assume it would be worse in the US.

The government is forcing all new auto insurance plans for the time being cut by 50%. All of our healthcare is free, still. Or maybe some right winger can correct me, am I paying for my free health care out of my free government check? Enlighten me how I actually misunderstand how I'm being screwed by my socialist leaning gov't. The Canada Revenue Agency, in their creativity, started a link on everyone's page called "unclaimed checks". The gov't lists any federally issued checks that people failed to cash.

I believe all of these financial support measures are helping to level the curve, and will give the best chance of success for the first round of shutdown to be more effective than, let's say... giving a handful of people $1200 total, denying unemployment pay across the board, spreading conspiracy theories, and pitting red and blue states against each other. I feel so bad for Americans stuck in such a dystopian hellscape. Good luck to you guys.

[nullnor]

this news anchor does an awesome job on the WHO

[nullnor]

i think it's time to panic https://www.thailandmedical.news/new...-what-hiv-does New Study Shows SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus Targets And Destroys T Cells, Similarly As What HIV Does

a new collaborative study by researchers from the United States and China now shows that the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus also attacks the T Lymphocytes similarly to the way that HIV viruses act.
The study has been published in the journal of Cellular & Molecular Immunology which is part of the credible Nature journals and has already been peer reviewed and also endorsed by many medical experts. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41423-020-0424-9
the researchers found that when the SARS-Cov-2 coronavirus and the T cell came into contact with each other, the T cell became prey to the coronavirus, wherein a structure in the spike of the coronavirus triggered the attachment of a viral envelope to the cell membrane of the T cells. After, the genes of the virus entered the T cell and overwhelmed it and took it hostage, the SARS-Cov-2 coronavirus deactivated its ability to protect the human host body.
One virologists who wanted to remain anonymous commented, “These findings show that we have a super potent virus that is evolving and behaving like an airborne HIV ‘cousin’!”

[rhd]

this news anchor does an awesome job on the WHO

I posted a link to this on 4/15 (post #1524), the day the video came out and also my discussion of the 5 questions they raised. Her name is Palki Sharma Upadhyay and she is tough not only on China and the WHO but also Trump. I like her.

[nullnor]

this is why that guy tried to patent that shit remember

In 2018, Shkreli was sentenced to seven years in prison for defrauding investors of $10 million. But as Nisen points out, “Shkreli's fraud conviction stemmed from his hedge-fund days -- everything he did with drug prices remains legal.” In May 2018, the price of Daraprim remains $750 per pill.

remember that Shkreli guy.

he was corrupt, but i asked the question back then. the fucking guy was on to something. immune systems were going to be compromised. he was thinking toxoplasmosis and probably never imagined something like this.

it's called re-purposing drugs. that's what i meant when i said there are already drugs out there. i didn't specifically mean chloroquine. but all drugs like that have serious side effects. but there are thousands of drugs out there you can wonder about. the drug fauci is promoting right now remdesivir, it was originally created for H5N1. it probable won't work on this coronavirus. it's a good drug. it has serious side effects too.

when i say side effects, i mean like giving it to army soldiers before they go into a war and resulting in nightmares or worse.

when are you guys going to realize these types of things or drugs are primarily there to make the people backing it make them rich. it's not going to save our bacon. but it's the only thing we have.

you are not going to get a vaccine for this. you'll get treatments. so instead of looking for a one fix all option, you need to be building up access to healthcare. there's definitely going to a second wave. and probably a third one. worst case scenario it's like HIV developing into the common cold.

they will figure it out though. eventually. when you get the world working on something. there is a lot of ways you can stop this virus. but we are going to go through every wrong way first before we do it.

[nullnor]

worst case scenario, if you push China too far, it will lead to war. it really will. the communist party will do anything to save their model. and they are powerful. the top 4 richest banks in the world are in China. and all 4 of them are at least 2 trillion dollars ahead of number 5. so the world can complain as much as it wants, but it doesn't have a dog in this fight.

[rhd]

worst case scenario, if you push China too far, it will lead to war. it really will. the communist party will do anything to save their model. and they are powerful.

The last thing China wants is a war w the US because they know full well they will lose. Otherwise, they might have tried this already. China is waging war against the US, as well as the other 1st-world countries, and has been for a long time. But it's a war of economics and disinformation. China uses similar tactics to those of N. Korea: they make threats to try to get the rest of the world to capitulate to their desires. We need to keep standing up to them because if we keep giving in, that's the way they really will become the most powerful nation.

[madducks]

The mask revolt has begun:

"An emergency proclamation requiring face masks in stores and restaurants in Stillwater, Oklahoma, was nixed after store and restaurant owners received threats.
The proclamation was issued Thursday. Among other things, the order made businesses require patrons to cover their faces to combat the spread of coronavirus.
But on Friday, Mayor Will Joyce softened the rule to encourage, not require, face coverings, after several reports emerged of employees being verbally abused and being threatened with physical violence while trying to enforce the order -- all in just three hours of the rule going into effect."

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/02/us/fa...rnd/index.html

[nullnor]

i gotta stop going on those drunken rants.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Le_r...re=emb_rel_end at 20:30 they cite a research paper from the researchers at the lab focusing on the ACE2 receptor, but what caught my eye was the HIV part. the video was put up april 7th so i don't think the questions of the furin enzyme gene were being discussed a lot yet. and the people in the video missed that part themselves even though it was right in front of them. i looked up the paper to see what the citation meant by

An HIV-1-luciferase pseudotype virus carrying the SARS-CoV BJ01 S protein, HIV/BJ01-S, was prepared

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7086629/ so i had to look at another paper this is all around 2010.

In this study, a human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-based pseudovirus system was employed to address these issues.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/art...MC2258702/#r37 and finally still trying to track it down

Preparation of HIV-1 Pseudotyped Viruses—HIV-luc/SARS-pseudotyped viruses were generated as described previously (23, 24). Briefly, 10 μg of pNL.4.3.Luc.E–R– (HIV-luc) (25) and 10 μg of S gene or its mutant-expressing plasmids were co-transfected into 2 × 106 293T cells by the standard calcium phosphate precipitation method

https://www.jbc.org/content/280/33/29588.full

i wondered what they mean by pseudovirus. bats have most of the coronavirus genes but not the HIV furin cleavage site ones i mentioned in a few posts before where the guy from virological org said it's doubtful a gene jockey would do that. so it's my understanding the HIV part which as mentioned is found naturally in a rat coronavirus and a bird influenza and in HIV itself and probably SIV. so we have to find the animal host that has the HIV-like furin enzyme that got infected with the ACE2 coronavirus and then passed it to humans. because unless there is a bat that has both types of infection routes, and there may be, we assume C19 didn't jump straight from bats to humans. but we haven't found the intermediate host yet.

but what we have found is a potential looking smoking gun where researchers at the wuhan lab inserted the HIV like furin enzyme into a coronavirus with an ACE2. potentially bypassing the need for a intermediate host.

it's completely plausible that many people are missing this specific part. the research papers are right there. or at least i hope they talk about it and explain it. why this evidence does or doesn't apply.

[nullnor]

still it could be a rat coronavirus with the furin enzyme combining with a bat coronavirus with ACE2. or maybe the bird influenza that has the furin enzyme combining. we may never know. the only way to prove anything is if we find the intermediate host, and if it is a rat or a bird, that might be impossible to find. or is it's an escaped virus. the only way is if someone that knows something came forward and spilled the beans. i just contradicted myself. we may never know how this happened. yet, i still think there has to be genetic evidence one way or the other. and i just contradicted myself again. lets play a game and see how long it takes for me to contradict myself. :P

[revo]

The mask revolt has begun:

"An emergency proclamation requiring face masks in stores and restaurants in Stillwater, Oklahoma, was nixed after store and restaurant owners received threats.
The proclamation was issued Thursday. Among other things, the order made businesses require patrons to cover their faces to combat the spread of coronavirus.
But on Friday, Mayor Will Joyce softened the rule to encourage, not require, face coverings, after several reports emerged of employees being verbally abused and being threatened with physical violence while trying to enforce the order -- all in just three hours of the rule going into effect."

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/02/us/fa...rnd/index.html

Americans are just too stupid to defeat this virus. It will never happen. Our only chance is to just hope herd immunity is real, or a vaccine comes to our rescue.

[nullnor]

you ever look at the differences between nuclear warfare and biological warfare from the perspective of the 1980 classic movie War Games. when a computer makes a mistake, it can be obvious and you can stop it. unlike biological warfare which is alive, but if a virus escapes from a lab there's no on or off switch. people never really think biological warfare or research into preventing or stopping a pandemic like virus is worse than nuclear weapons. i suppose that is because nuclear weapons is more devastating immediately. it can kill all life with one mistake. but it's now occurred to me that biological warfare games are more dangerous.