Corona Virus

[Kevin Seitzer]

Oh, I see. Reading up on it a bit more, the numbers are incredibly sensitive to the test specificity, which isn't yet known as well as they would like. The test I am familiar with had done a better job of establishing test specificity than this one did. But still, big error bars around both studies at this point.

Edit: Now that I've gotten the full paper, I see they did establish the test specificity. And I think it's using the same assay as the test that I am familiar with, so should have the same specificity.

[Kevin Seitzer]

Also, I'm not wild about the "recruiting on Facebook" aspect. I'm not sure how well that approximates a random sample.

[The Feral Slasher]

Its possible that one of my out on a limb theories that I wouldnt have bet on, might be true! Need more studies to agree with these results though...

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....14.20062463v1

Would be great news, lots of bits of info out there(german study, study of pregnant women in ny, feedback from aircraft carriers) -will be good to have a comprehensive data to guide decisions. Until then i hope we are cautious

[Kevin Seitzer]

The true rate is highly sensitive to the specificity of the test.

You can use this calculator to see the effects:

https://larremorelab.github.io/covid-serology

The Santa Clara Facebook group had 50 positive tests and 3389 negative tests.
If you have a 0.995 specificity, you get a likely 1.0% actual infection rate.
If you have a 0.99 specificity, you get a likely 0.5% actual infection rate.
If you have a 0.98 specificity, you get a likely 0.1% actual infection rate.

If they are using the same assay as I think they are, that had 3 false positives out of 371 tests, which would be 0.99 specificity.

[Kevin Seitzer]

Study Participants and Sample Recruitment
We recruited participants by placing targeted advertisements on Facebook aimed at residents of Santa Clara County. We used Facebook to quickly reach a large number of county residents and because it allows for granular targeting by zip code and sociodemographic characteristics. We used a combination of two targeting strategies: ads aimed at a representative population of the county by zip code, and specially targeted ads to balance our sample for under-represented zip codes. In addition, we capped registrations from overrepresented areas. Individuals who clicked on the advertisement were directed to a survey hosted by the Stanford REDcap platform, which provided information about the study. The survey asked for six data elements: zip code of residence, age, sex, race/ethnicity, underlying comorbidities, and prior clinical symptoms. Over 24 hours, we registered 3,285 adults, and each adult was allowed to bring one child from the same household with them (889 children registered).

The sample distribution meaningfully deviated from that of the Santa Clara County population along several dimensions: sex (63% in sample was female, 50% in county); race (8% of the sample was Hispanic, 26% in the county; 19% of the sample was Asian, 28% in the county)

Hm, they sampled a bunch of rich white women and children recruited from Facebook ads...

[Sour Masher]

Hm, they sampled a bunch of rich white women and children recruited from Facebook ads...

So, not really random. But what does it likely mean in terms of the data? Aren't minorities being hit harder? Doesn't that suggest the actual infection rate may be even higher?

[The Feral Slasher]

We are being told not to wear masks, and likely being lied to about their effectiveness, because we don't have enough for everyone, and our government wants the limited supply we have to go to health care workers that are exposed most to the virus. Also, it needs to be the right masks. A lot of the masks people can find are not rated to stop this. They need to be the N95 masks, which most have banned the sale of. The lower quality ones likely don't do much, and those are the ones lots of overpaying for right now.

Interesting how the conventional wisdom has shifted on wearing masks in only a few weeks. Still don't have any solid data but it seems highly encouraged if not mandatory in many locations

[Sour Masher]

Interesting how the conventional wisdom has shifted on wearing masks in only a few weeks. Still don't have any solid data but it seems highly encouraged if not mandatory in many locations

Yeah, still not finding anything definitive on how effective the regular cloth ones we are being told to wear are, but clearly they are better than nothing. I've order some for the whole family that should get her Tuesday. My wife ordered some, but they turned out to be maid our of black training bras, and I feel weird about wearing them. I still have an old disposable mask found packed away I used for painting a room back in the day until I get the cloth ones. We wildly overpaid for these masks, but it is mandated we wear them in NY now.

[Kevin Seitzer]

So, not really random. But what does it likely mean in terms of the data? Aren't minorities being hit harder? Doesn't that suggest the actual infection rate may be even higher?

I presume that's why their adjusted number is so much higher. I honestly don't know what I think about that.

[cardboardbox]

So, not really random. But what does it likely mean in terms of the data? Aren't minorities being hit harder? Doesn't that suggest the actual infection rate may be even higher?

I think its best to wait for more studies to be done and results released. If they roughly agree with each other then we might have something.

[rhd]

Another stats update as of 7:46 AM today. Last stats were from 4/16 at 7:46 AM, exactly 3 days ago:

- 742,067 cases in US, up from 645,361, a 15.0% increase. That's about the same increase as last time (14.8%). The increases of the last 6 days give a doubling rate of every 15 days. The US would project to hit 1 mil cases by about April 26. The states w the highest # of cases per capita, in order, are New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Louisiana, Connecticut, Rhode Island, DC and Michigan. The states w the highest # of tests per capita, in order, are Rhode Island, New York, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Vermont, Utah, DC, Washington state and New Jersey. As of 4/15, the US has a testing rate of 9.3 per thousand. For comparison, S. Korea's rate is 10.4 per thousand and Italy's is 18.9 per thousand.
- 39,295 deaths in US, up from 28,638, a 37.2% increase which is a larger increase than last time (29.2%). The increases of the last 6 days give a doubling rate of about every 7.25 days. The US projects to hit 100,000 deaths by about April 29. Every state has now reported a death and American Samoa is the only territory w/o a case. The US mortality rate is now 5.30%, which is much higher than last time, (4.44%). The states w the highest # of deaths per capita, in order, are New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Louisiana, Michigan and Massachusetts.
- 2,350,878 cases worldwide, up from 2,098,209, a 12.0% increase which is about the same increase as last time (12.4%).
- 161.516 deaths worldwide, up from 135,828, a 18.9% increase which is a slightly larger increase than last time (17.7%). Mortality rates continue to rise. The world mortality rate is 6.87%, up from 6.47%. Italy's mortality rate is 13.22%, up from 13.11%, Belgium's is 14.76%, up from 13.95%, Spain's is 10.44%, about the same as last time (10.46%), France's is 12.73%, up from 11.61%, UK's is 13.54%, up from 13.07% and Germany's is 3.16%, up from 2.82%.
- 215 countries/territories/etc. have confirmed cases w suspected cases in 1 other (North Korea), same as last time. There are only 14 countries, 11 of which are island republics, that have neither reported nor have suspected cases: Lesotho, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, Comoros, Kiribati, Marshall Is., Micronesia, Nauru, Palau, Samoa, Solomon Is., Tonga, Tuvalu, Vanuatu. The vast majority of countries have at least 1 death, w Vietnam having the most cases w no reported deaths, 268.

Rates actually increased slightly overall this time and still no significant change in the slopes of the increase rates.

[rhd]

More evidence that CV-19 was engineered in a lab. It is on a YT channel called CRUX, which I never heard of before:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=usyQgPU-VrI

Not too much info in this video. It just says that French virologist, Luc Montagnier, co-discoverer of the HIV virus, says after studying CV-19 that it couldnt have occurred naturally, in part because it contains proteins from HIV and Malaria that are impossible in a naturally-occurring virus. But the comments contain a link to a research paper from India from Feb that also says the virus came from a lab:

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/338957445_Uncanny_similarity_of_unique_inserts_in_the_2019-nCoV_spike_protein_to_HIV-1_gp120_and_Gag

[madducks]

Is it true that China shut down domestic travel from Wuhan late in 2019, but not international travel?

The same China that threatened retaliation over the U.S. tariffs last August?

[Sour Masher]

More evidence that CV-19 was engineered in a lab. It is on a YT channel called CRUX, which I never heard of before:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=usyQgPU-VrI

Not too much info in this video. It just says that French virologist, Luc Montagnier, co-discoverer of the HIV virus, says after studying CV-19 that it couldnt have occurred naturally, in part because it contains proteins from HIV and Malaria that are impossible in a naturally-occurring virus. But the comments contain a link to a research paper from India from Feb that also says the virus came from a lab:

https://www.researchgate.net/publica..._gp120_and_Gag

I don't know if this rises to the level of evidence, but it does register on my radar when someone of his prestige makes a claim like this, and it does seem he said this today, although I haven't seen any major American pubs pick it up just yet. He puts forth the theory that China was trying to come up with a treatment for HIV, and references an accident in the lab. Some poking around and you find that other eminent virologists have refuted the notion, suggesting the small amount of code you see can easily be coincidental. Montagnier is 87 and doesn't seem to have any active role in research right now. It seems like just speculation, but speculation from an expert, so that is something. It seems to be a plausible theory, but I haven't seen any hard evidence for it yet.

Here is a source I found: https://www.theweek.in/news/world/20...-laureate.html

According to reports, Montagnier alleged the presence of elements of HIV and germ of malaria in the genome of coronavirus is “highly suspect” and it “could not have arisen naturally”. The French researcher also alleged an “industrial accident” to have taken place in the Wuhan National Biosafety Laboratory, which specialises in coronaviruses since the 2000s.

However, agencies have reported other researchers of rubbishing Montagnier’s claims, saying that it “does not make sense”. Another French virologist Étienne SimonLorière told AFP that “these are very small elements that are found in other viruses of the same family”.

[rhd]

Is it true that China shut down domestic travel from Wuhan late in 2019, but not international travel?

The same China that threatened retaliation over the U.S. tariffs last August?

Yep, that same China. That's one big reason why the world is in this pandemic.