Election 2020

[Teenwolf]

I'm sure there are many more. I just have other things to do right now.

Not entirely accurate to show that I've said Biden would lose to Trump when nearly all of your quotes are from the primary. I've said Biden would win fairly consistently since he became the nominee, although I was skeptical of his lead sizes, and I believed the hidden Trump vote of 3-4% was real. Only the Covid quote do I say he's going to lose, but I base it off speculation on a massive Covid surge and further speculation on the results of that, so it's about as relevant as spring training stats.

5 quotes. 1st one I talk about how Covid will affect voters and I end by saying "it won't be pretty". It wasn't technically a loss, but it sure wasn't pretty. 2nd quote is talking about down-ballot losses, so it's taken entirely out of context. Quotes 3-5 are all from the primary, when Bernie was still in the race, all before Covid-19 was a factor, not from the general election. I could find a dozen quotes where I support Biden winning throughout the general, though I expressed more pessimism than most about lead sizes, and I definitely indicated that the "secret Trump vote" of 3-4% was real, which was proven correct. I'm clearly referring to Biden as a "loser" as a personality trait, like messaging that Republicans are good people who just happen to support a lunatic... Registered R voted at 90% Trump in '16, up to 93% in '20! Winning messaging, yeah fucking right!

It's impossible to sort through all the variables that Covid had an affect on this election, but Trump won the majority of votes in more than 90% of the 376 US counties with the highest number of new COVID-19 cases per capita... that's fucking nuts. You can't predict people to vote so hard in the opposite of their best interest, but there you go. Biden didn't lose due to Covid, he likely won because of it. Chancellor is right, if Covid were not an issue and Biden were forced to campaign out of his basement, with the rigorous schedule that involves, we would have seen a very different matchup between Trump and Biden. Given that voters split 70/30 on the issue of Covid handling in favor of Democrats, it's possible Biden would have been obliterated if not for the disease and being able to simplify his message to "follow science, wear a mask", etc.

I was the one jumping up and down saying "this campaign of "Orange Man Bad" isn't ENOUGH!" You were saying "BIDEN IS CRUSHING IT!!1!! Check out the latest polls!" Well, was it enough or wasn't it?! Seems to me, given the down-ballot losses due to Biden's horrible messaging that Trump was an aberration and not reflective of the Republican party, Biden won't be able to do much except give the Republicans what they want, which was his plan all along anyway. I've seen mixed signals so far, but the latest appointment of a fossil fuel executive to an environmental advisory role is a very bad sign that he wants to literally skull-fuck every progressive to death. Or maybe metaphorically, I get those terms confused.

[Teenwolf]

A lot of them. If you limit it to just the candidates who made the primaries, I've already given my POV that Warren would have won, but I also think Klobuchar, Buttigieg, Bloomberg, and Patrick would have beat him, too. I actually think Sanders would receive more votes, but would have struggled in Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Arizona. But he might have pulled it off, too. Heck, if the DNC would have gotten behind Yang, he could have won, too. If this were a conventional election, that's probably not the case. But this wasn't a conventional election - as, I think it was revo who noted, so many voters voted against Trump and not for Biden, and any of those candidates would have also received those votes. I also think all of them would have outperformed Biden on the campaign trail and especially in the debates to the point that would overcome their lack of name recognition compared to Biden. Again, others mileage may vary.

I appreciate your honesty. I obviously think Sanders would have won because he would have tied the pandemic to his governmental policies that directly help people, he would have advocated for badly needed stimulus that's been mutually blocked by both parties for political theatre. The renter's crisis that you spoke of months ago, where 50% of the renters in some states were months behind on rent, those folks would have had a public advocate for their stimulus. I think it would have been an entirely different campaign and mobilized different people, but if you look at Sanders primary numbers, he dominated Biden with Latinos, which were an area Biden struggled across the board. Sanders' public speaking and ability to show empathy, as well as broader messaging than simply "Trump is bad", and many other political skills he possesses, I think he would have crushed Trump.

I disagree that Bloomberg or Buttigieg could have beat Trump. Their personal failings would have been perfect fodder for Trump to weaponize. Possibly the same with Klobuchar, her prosecutorial record, her issues with the Black Lives Matter movement, would have found difficulty uniting the left, but she's a definite Biden proxy for the "hold your nose" type. I'm glad you don't mention Harris beating Trump, as I don't think she would have. People have such amnesia as to her failings in the primary.

Yang could have done it because there are so many people who want the "anything but status-quo" option that Trump represented, I think he had the best shot at flipping Trump voters to his populist messaging. Other than Yang and Sanders, nobody could have galvanized enough of a united front among Democrats, or drawn away enough Trump voters to pull off the POTUS and down-ballot wins that would prevent absolute gridlock for the next 4 years. You need a movement built on prescriptive policies, not "that guy is uniquely immoral". Morality holds less currency in politics all of the time. Q-anon is in the building.

[revo]

Biden won 306-232. He leads by 6 million votes. Everyone doubted him. He held up his end of the bargain.

[Teenwolf]

There is no way the polls are capturing all the first time voters who want Trump gone. It's gonna be a landslide.

I really appreciated your post recognizing that America is a worse country than you had thought from a few days after you posted the prediction above. I agree it should have been a landslide, and that's from someone who loathes Joe Biden.

But I knew it would be closer than it should be, and you consistently called me a Trump fan and all this nonsense when I spoke up saying Biden needed to do more to reach his base and non-voters. Bernie Sanders had the nuance to say "if elected Biden would have the most progressive agenda in the history of the country" while also saying "he needs to speak more to the immediate concerns of voters and stop focusing so much on how Trump is a unique danger". Bernie wasn't lying about the first part, he just wanted a cudgel to push his "good friend Joe" to do the right thing on issues over the next 4 years. I think he did enough emphatic endorsement of Biden to earn the right to criticize him now when he tries to shut out progressives.

The time to fight over supporting Biden is finished. I couldn't be happier for the next phase.

[Teenwolf]

Biden won 306-232. He leads by 6 million votes. Everyone doubted him. He held up his end of the bargain.

I wish I was a political cartoonist. I have this image in my head of Joe Biden handcuffed in bondage gear with a ball gag in his mouth, Lindsay Graham standing over Biden with a feather saying "what's the safeword?" and Biden's eyes rolling back in his head in pure ecstasy.

Losing down-ballot wasn't "part of the bargain." I think if you told Democratic voters they had to fight really hard for Biden to win by just enough to not be able to do anything other than work with Republicans to pass Republican priorities, they'd call that a raw deal.

[GwynnInTheHall]

Serious question...other than Biden, which Dems that ran against Biden for the nomination do you think would have also won against Trump if they were the nominee?

Bernie without a doubt.

[Ken]

I think if you told Democratic voters they had to fight really hard for Biden to win by just enough to not be able to do anything other than work with Republicans to pass Republican priorities, they'd call that a raw deal.

I think if you told any Democratic voters that they could get Trump out, BUT..... they'd stop you and say I don't give a shit about what you are about to say, I'm in.

[madducks]

Biden won 306-232. He leads by 6 million votes. Everyone doubted him. He held up his end of the bargain.

The media should troll Trump and report 322 electoral votes for Biden since he won Georgia twice lol.

[madducks]

Team Trump lol.

[revo]

Ha, I love seeing actors and other celebs come out against these morons. Some are very well known anti-Trump trollers (Morgan Freeman, Rob Reiner, Richard Marx, Jon Cryer to name a few) but I love seeing some I was unaware of. For those of you who don't know, Antony Starr plays the anti-superman Homelander on "The Boys."

[chancellor]

Losing down-ballot wasn't "part of the bargain." I think if you told Democratic voters they had to fight really hard for Biden to win by just enough to not be able to do anything other than work with Republicans to pass Republican priorities, they'd call that a raw deal.

On this one, I'll have to disagree with you. Yes, Biden's coat tails did almost nothing. But if you want to point blame at people for the down-ballot failures, the DNC should be square in your sights. Along with a few well-funded 403c groups. The DNC once again, in their high-handed arrogance, ignored local direction and desires, and treated every down-ballot election with the same playbook. It's the football equivalent of playing the Packers, Vikings, Chargers, and 49ers in succession and using the same defensive scheme against all four. Same for a number of those 403c sites. What may work in suburban DC and Philly will not likely work in suburban Miami, for example.

[Redbirds Fan]

I think if you told any Democratic voters that they could get Trump out, BUT..... they'd stop you and say I don't give a shit about what you are about to say, I'm in.

This.

[gcstomp]

I am confident that Biden was uniquely the one who needed to be up against trump for dems to pull out win. And even so, trump grew support from hispanic community, selling the silly scare line dems are socialist and you know how that rings in ears coming from latin american countries with actual strongman leaders. It is an easy tag to carry as a repub hit piece and throw at whatever dem, when the antidote is to point out dems support social programs as in a safety net so we dont have blood in street from desperately poor in time of historic wealth accumulation by a handful of people. The vast majority of people support social programs, but how to sell it so it is a positive rather than a scare tactic.

Imagine if candidate were bernie, then it would not have been a mere loss to say the cuban pop in miami who feared the socialist boogeyman, it would have been a massacre, as it would be a vastly easier sell of this sanders is a socialist rather than biden. Or say warren, who never had near the support of poc that biden had, imagine the level of loss. Mayor pete, who is awesome, I think it would be something to have an actual super bright person in their prime in highest office, but imagine the loss in bible belt who would 100% vote against the gay guy.

We have Biden as the bridge candidate, and there will be absolute nutjobs who will cling to hunter biden non story, so obviously false that even fox news abandoned the push of the gulliani unearthed mess of a story. I am not thrilled that Biden will most probably have the same mitch blockade in senate to get much done. But there will still be plenty that can be done, including rejoining the world stage as non crazy participants.

[revo]

Georgia certified Biden's win, so hopefully this puts to bed Trump's attempt to destroy democracy as we know it.

[DMT]

Georgia certified Biden's win, so hopefully this puts to bed Trump's attempt to destroy democracy as we know it.

Not a chance.