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Possible exception of Lincoln, possible.
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A+ poll in PA this morning puts Biden up 7 at 51-44. Biden is clearing the 50% margin almost every poll here. His 538 probability to win the election, 88, is almost the same as winning PA, 87.
A week and a half out, no more debates, there is no Comey letter, there is just nothing out there for Trump to grab onto. Going back to the 2016 model at the same Friday a week plus out Clinton had started her fall and was down to 81, at 4 days out she hits her low of under 65 and that is the equivalent of next Friday. Is anyone worried Biden is going to see his chances of winning collapse by 23 points over the next week?
I remained cautious through the whole cycle, but if this was any presidential race pre-2016 we would all be calling it a laugher. 9+ points nationally, 5 + points in the blue wall states. Slight leads in FL, AZ, and NC. Coin flips in GA, IA, and OH. TX likely to be within 2-3 points. I won't be celebrating until this is over, but this is not a close race by probability.
All we can individually do is vote and hope for the best, but I feel very good about where we are in the Presidential and House races. The Senate will be close, but I definitely believe Democrats get to 50, the question is do they get more?Last edited by frae; 10-23-2020, 09:45 AM.Comment
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I am curious to see which way Texas goes in the presidential election. It seems like the polling is pretty much a tossup at this point. Unfortunately, on probably a more important question, I'm pretty sure John Cornyn gains reelection to the Senate, he's up by 3-8 points in the most recent set of polls."Jesus said to them, 'Truly I tell you, the tax collectors and the prostitutes are going into the kingdom of God ahead of you.'"Comment
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One of the weird things about 538's model is that as time goes on, the demographic and incumbency weighting drops off and they converge much more on what the polls actually say. I get why they do this, but at the same time it can present a skewed version of reality of things changing over time when they're really not. So I'm not sure Clinton ever really had a probability > 80% that was supported by polling. Although I do think the Comey letter hurt her some, too, at the end.A+ poll in PA this morning puts Biden up 7 at 51-44. Biden is clearing the 50% margin almost every poll here. His 538 probability to win the election, 88, is almost the same as winning PA, 87.
A week and a half out, no more debates, there is no Comey letter, there is just nothing out there for Trump to grab onto. Going back to the 2016 model at the same Friday a week plus out Clinton had started her fall and was down to 81, at 4 days out she hits her low of under 65 and that is the equivalent of next Friday. Is anyone worried Biden is going to see his chances of winning collapse by 23 points over the next week?"Jesus said to them, 'Truly I tell you, the tax collectors and the prostitutes are going into the kingdom of God ahead of you.'"Comment
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wait till they find the child porn on Hunter's laptop, thus proving all of Q's allegations.A+ poll in PA this morning puts Biden up 7 at 51-44. Biden is clearing the 50% margin almost every poll here. His 538 probability to win the election, 88, is almost the same as winning PA, 87.
A week and a half out, no more debates, there is no Comey letter, there is just nothing out there for Trump to grab onto. Going back to the 2016 model at the same Friday a week plus out Clinton had started her fall and was down to 81, at 4 days out she hits her low of under 65 and that is the equivalent of next Friday. Is anyone worried Biden is going to see his chances of winning collapse by 23 points over the next week?
I remained cautious through the whole cycle, but if this was any presidential race pre-2016 we would all be calling it a laugher. 9+ points nationally, 5 + points in the blue wall states. Slight leads in FL, AZ, and NC. Coin flips in GA, IA, and OH. TX likely to be within 2-3 points. I won't be celebrating until this is over, but this is not a close race by probability.
All we can individually do is vote and hope for the best, but I feel very good about where we are in the Presidential and House races. The Senate will be close, but I definitely believe Democrats get to 50, the question is do they get more?I'm not expecting to grow flowers in the desert...Comment
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The Q is silentIf I whisper my wicked marching orders into the ether with no regard to where or how they may bear fruit, I am blameless should a broken spirit carry those orders out upon the innocent, for it was not my hand that took the action merely my lips which let slip their darkest wish. ~Daniel Devereaux 2011
Nothing in all the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity.
Martin Luther King, Jr.Comment
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If I whisper my wicked marching orders into the ether with no regard to where or how they may bear fruit, I am blameless should a broken spirit carry those orders out upon the innocent, for it was not my hand that took the action merely my lips which let slip their darkest wish. ~Daniel Devereaux 2011
Nothing in all the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity.
Martin Luther King, Jr.Comment
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Battle ground states are roughly same margin as 2016, within margin of error, a toss up. This is close race, but the trump base, is, as expressed by someone here, the fu lib tard base. Who else thinks we are in a close race? https://www.aol.com/article/news/202...race/24660643/
Pileup of people are playing the game of, yes I know trump lies all the time. Yes I know he is an ass who lives for the cruelty to the other, my people are the non college grad white people. This is my country, and you can suck an egg, you liberal tree hugger.Last edited by gcstomp; 10-23-2020, 10:19 PM.Comment
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