Election 2020

[chancellor]

So this actually isn't true (I live in Georgia). For the primaries (and primaries only), when you make your absentee ballot request, you are required to choose a Democratic, Republican, or non partisan ballot. Go to https://georgia.gov/vote-absentee-ballot, scroll to submit by mail, and then look at number 5 on the Application. I am guessing that they got the 24,000 number from residents who requested the Republican ballot for their primary vote. You are correct as to the general election absentee application-that application does not have you specify the party.

So, even though voter registration doesn't require party affiliation, and the general election doesn't require party affiliation, the Georgia SecState though he could correlate primary ballots to general election ballots?

While I think your SecState is an idiot, Nully is right about it being a beautiful state.

[chancellor]

To clarify, we're accusing the Republican secretary of state as just making shit up against Trump? To what end exactly? That's the conspiracy theory at this point? Wow. We've reached new levels of far-fetched.

Um, he's pushing back against what he thinks are unfair and stupid tweets from Trump? Hey, if you can enlighten me and let me know how magically he's discerned the voting habits of 24,000 voters, I'm listening. There's certainly no mathematical basis for it.

[Ken]

Um, he's pushing back against what he thinks are unfair and stupid tweets from Trump? Hey, if you can enlighten me and let me know how magically he's discerned the voting habits of 24,000 voters, I'm listening. There's certainly no mathematical basis for it.

Pretty sure it's not magic, just like it's not magic that they have the count when you didn't think that was possible.

The tinfoil required to think that not only are the Dems out to get Trump, but they managed to get Republican leaders of a few states in on it too, is astounding. I guess there's no limit to gullibility. Trump says it was rigged against him, then by all means it MUST have been!

[Andrewski]

So, even though voter registration doesn't require party affiliation, and the general election doesn't require party affiliation, the Georgia SecState though he could correlate primary ballots to general election ballots?

Perhaps, but I don't think his analysis is so far fetched. If you have 24,000 people who requested republican ballots in the primary and you know the identity of those people (because you actually sent them absentee ballot), and then those same people don't vote in general, it's not crazy (to me) to believe that many/most/all of those voters would have voted republican/Trump in the general.

[Teenwolf]

I drank a lot of coffee and got stoned. I don't actually smoke a lot of pot anymore. it works to quit drinking, and it's more fun. video games too. doctors should prescribe pot and video games.

Magic mushrooms actually really helped me quit drinking. They're said to repair your brain function, and I felt incredibly good mentally for about a week after the first time I did them. Broadened my perspective, allowed me to relax more. Then I did mushrooms regularly for about a year until slowly transitioning to pot. Worked for me.

I still try to get mushies once a year or so, for the medicinal benefit, of course.

[chancellor]

In terms of taking a reputational beating, I don't think any polling group has Cook Political Report's House predictions beat. The why can be debated, but the what is a disaster of "HOLY $!@&" proportions. To wit:

- Cook Political had 36 seats "leaning or likely Democrat". The GOP won seven of those seats.
- Cook Political had 26 seats "leaning or likely GOP". The GOP won all of those seats.
- And, in the coup de grace, Cook Political had 27 seats listed as "Toss-up". The GOP won every single one of those seats. Holy SNAFU, Batman.

My conclusion: Frae, despite the crap I gave him about the Cunningham race, is ten times smarter than the Cook Political Report. I have spoken.

[umjewman]

In terms of taking a reputational beating, I don't think any polling group has Cook Political Report's House predictions beat. The why can be debated, but the what is a disaster of "HOLY $!@&" proportions. To wit:

- Cook Political had 36 seats "leaning or likely Democrat". The GOP won seven of those seats.
- Cook Political had 26 seats "leaning or likely GOP". The GOP won all of those seats.
- And, in the coup de grace, Cook Political had 27 seats listed as "Toss-up". The GOP won every single one of those seats. Holy SNAFU, Batman.

My conclusion: Frae, despite the crap I gave him about the Cunningham race, is ten times smarter than the Cook Political Report. I have spoken.

I think their reputation is great. They got 100% on the leaning or likely GOP. 26 for 26!

[revo]

In terms of taking a reputational beating, I don't think any polling group has Cook Political Report's House predictions beat. The why can be debated, but the what is a disaster of "HOLY $!@&" proportions. To wit:

- Cook Political had 36 seats "leaning or likely Democrat". The GOP won seven of those seats.
- Cook Political had 26 seats "leaning or likely GOP". The GOP won all of those seats.
- And, in the coup de grace, Cook Political had 27 seats listed as "Toss-up". The GOP won every single one of those seats. Holy SNAFU, Batman.

My conclusion: Frae, despite the crap I gave him about the Cunningham race, is ten times smarter than the Cook Political Report. I have spoken.

The polls still cannot seem to get the GOP voter correct. It's crazy. They're all lucky that Biden had as big a lead as he did going into Election Day, because they came close to blowing it again. This time, they blew it big time on the down ballot races as you mentioned. Just terrible.

[Kevin Seitzer]

Some trivia that I found interesting...

Biggest state margins for Biden:
California, +5.1 million votes
Massachusetts, +1.2 million
New York, +1.0 million
Illinois, +1.0 million
Maryland, +1.0 million
Washington, +0.8 million
New Jersey, +0.7 million
Virginia, +0.5 million

Biggest state margins for Trump:
Tennessee, +0.7 million
Alabama, +0.6 million
Kentucky, +0.6 million
Texas, +0.5 million
Oklahoma, +0.5 million
Missouri, +0.5 million
Indiana, +0.5 million
Ohio, +0.5 million

Biden's overall lead right now is at 6.0 million votes, and it is likely to grow somewhat as all the votes are counted.

[Kevin Seitzer]

Biggest percentage margins for Biden:
Vermont +35.4%
Maryland +32.9%
Massachusetts +32.9%
California +29.4%
Hawaii +29.4%
Rhode Island +20.7%
Connecticut +20.0%
Washington +19.4%
Delaware +19.0%
Illinois +16.9%
Oregon +16.2%
New Jersey +15.7%
New York +14.7%
Colorado +13.5%
New Mexico +10.8%
Virginia +10.2%
Maine +10.0%

Biggest percentage margins for Trump:
Wyoming +43.3%
West Virginia +38.9%
North Dakota +33.3%
Oklahoma +33.1%
Idaho +30.7%
Arkansas +27.6%
South Dakota +26.2%
Kentucky +25.9%
Alabama +25.6%
Tennessee +23.3%
Utah +20.5%
Nebraska +19.1%
Louisiana +18.6%
Mississippi +16.5%
Montana +16.3%
Indiana +16.1%
Missouri +15.3%
Kansas +15.2%
South Carolina +11.7%
Alaska +10.1%

[Teenwolf]

The polls still cannot seem to get the GOP voter correct. It's crazy. They're all lucky that Biden had as big a lead as he did going into Election Day, because they came close to blowing it again. This time, they blew it big time on the down ballot races as you mentioned. Just terrible.

Any chance that the polls didn't blow it but Biden did?

You think messaging that Trump was a unique threat to democracy and that Biden was willing to platform Republicans, put them in his cabinet, and work with Republicans to end the era of obstructionism that was obviously ever present before Trump? Think that affected the down ballot races? I was saying polls were off all along.

[DMT]

Any chance that the polls didn't blow it but Biden did?

You think messaging that Trump was a unique threat to democracy and that Biden was willing to platform Republicans, put them in his cabinet, and work with Republicans to end the era of obstructionism that was obviously ever present before Trump? Think that affected the down ballot races? I was saying polls were off all along.

You also said Biden was going to get blown out.

[Kevin Seitzer]

You also said Biden was going to get blown out.

And that he was deteriorating physically to the point that he wouldn't make it through a tough campaign and was on the verge of full-on dementia.

[revo]

Any chance that the polls didn't blow it but Biden did?

You think messaging that Trump was a unique threat to democracy and that Biden was willing to platform Republicans, put them in his cabinet, and work with Republicans to end the era of obstructionism that was obviously ever present before Trump? Think that affected the down ballot races? I was saying polls were off all along.

Not at all. The various battleground state polls all had Biden in the lead until the final day. Then a few Florida polls showed Trump with the lead. How could Biden have blown it that late, when there was nothing that came out?

The national presidential polls were accurate. The presidential battleground states were for the most part accurate, but a lot closer than expected. The Senate polls were inaccurate. The House polls were inaccurate. How would Biden have affected them, but not his own?

How could they have shown Collins losing in every single poll throughout the cycle, but then she wins by 8%? What did Biden have to do with that?

The Iowa, NC and even the Montana race were horribly off, but Arizona wasn't. Neither was Colorado.

This was most certainly a polling issue, not a Biden issue.

[Teenwolf]

You also said Biden was going to get blown out.

You lie. Show me where I said Biden would lose badly, or that he would lose at all! I said he was running a shitty campaign with flawed strategy, and I was right. His down ballot losses are entirely his fault, messaging that Republicans are good people and that Trump is uniquely bad. That was a shit message.

You said Biden was going to steamroll Trump worse than the polls showed. You were way off.