Election 2020

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  • frae
    Journeyman
    • Jan 2011
    • 4271

    Also a small dump of the vote out of Nevada now moved Biden to up 12K, expect that lead to grow as these votes come in there.

    Comment

    • heyelander
      MVP
      • Jan 2011
      • 10398

      Originally posted by frae
      Also a small dump of the vote out of Nevada now moved Biden to up 12K, expect that lead to grow as these votes come in there.
      CNN was threatening it would go the other way all night. I went to bed not so assured of things.
      I'm not expecting to grow flowers in the desert...

      Comment

      • frae
        Journeyman
        • Jan 2011
        • 4271

        Originally posted by heyelander
        CNN was threatening it would go the other way all night. I went to bed not so assured of things.
        They just want you to keep watching. Arizona will get tighter but Biden will hold on by maybe 35K and Nevada should grow a bit more, not sure how much Clark County vote we have out. Jon Ralston is a good follow on Twitter for Nevada the rural vote will keep coming in for NV and trump will pick off a few hundred votes here and there, but anytime Clark County votes come in Biden will get a lot more.

        Comment

        • heyelander
          MVP
          • Jan 2011
          • 10398

          i kept trying to watch other things... caught up on Supernatural again. still, each commercial I flipped back...

          I just want things to be over so I can concentrate on being delighted the sixers signed Morey and angry at the phillies for not resigning JT.
          I'm not expecting to grow flowers in the desert...

          Comment

          • umjewman
            Journeyman
            • Jan 2011
            • 2554

            Originally posted by frae
            They just want you to keep watching. Arizona will get tighter but Biden will hold on by maybe 35K and Nevada should grow a bit more, not sure how much Clark County vote we have out. Jon Ralston is a good follow on Twitter for Nevada the rural vote will keep coming in for NV and trump will pick off a few hundred votes here and there, but anytime Clark County votes come in Biden will get a lot more.
            Definitely want you to keep watching....it narrowed to 11,500. Stay tuned, we're expecting more vote counts any minute!

            Comment

            • Sour Masher
              MVP
              • Jan 2011
              • 10425

              Originally posted by chancellor
              I do think she'd have done better among African American voters than Biden.
              Why? She did much worse than Biden in the primaries with that demo. And again, I say this as someone who favored her in the primaries.
              Last edited by Sour Masher; 11-05-2020, 12:55 PM.

              Comment

              • frae
                Journeyman
                • Jan 2011
                • 4271

                Originally posted by umjewman
                Definitely want you to keep watching....it narrowed to 11,500. Stay tuned, we're expecting more vote counts any minute!
                Yeah, so Biden got about what a +4500 in Clark and then Trump made up about 500 with some rural vote. If only there were I don't know more people where Trump will make up votes this might be interesting. Relax everyone, we got this in NV, AZ, and PA. GA is actually close.

                Comment

                • frae
                  Journeyman
                  • Jan 2011
                  • 4271

                  Ralston has seen enough if we take the az call by Fox and ap this is 270 but not sure anyone will call it, but it’s over.

                  Comment

                  • Ken
                    Administrator
                    • Feb 2016
                    • 10979

                    Nate Silver is implying that if Nevada *wasn't* going to end up calling the whole election, then it would have already been called by now.

                    Comment

                    • revo
                      Administrator
                      • Jan 2011
                      • 26128

                      Latest Betfair odds: Biden -1429

                      Comment

                      • hacko
                        Welcome to the Big Leagues, Kid
                        • Jan 2011
                        • 2348

                        Originally posted by frae
                        Yeah, so Biden got about what a +4500 in Clark and then Trump made up about 500 with some rural vote. If only there were I don't know more people where Trump will make up votes this might be interesting. Relax everyone, we got this in NV, AZ, and PA. GA is actually close.
                        . We better if we don’t and my head doesn’t explode I am driving to PA and stomp shit your Barbie doll Laptop. Is that relax enough.

                        Oh damn wrong thread back to vintage thread where the count really matters!

                        Comment

                        • frae
                          Journeyman
                          • Jan 2011
                          • 4271

                          Originally posted by Ken
                          Nate Silver is implying that if Nevada *wasn't* going to end up calling the whole election, then it would have already been called by now.
                          Yeah nobody seems to want to do that and that is fine. GA will get counted today and PA could crossover late today if not we wait on AZ and PA to count.

                          Comment

                          • frae
                            Journeyman
                            • Jan 2011
                            • 4271

                            Originally posted by hacko
                            . We better if we don’t and my head doesn’t explode I am driving to PA and stomp shit your Barbie doll Laptop. Is that relax enough.

                            Oh damn wrong thread back to vintage thread where the count really matters!
                            You are screwing up my RJ thread total projections by coming over here I had you as a solid poster in VD. Got to retool the model.

                            Comment

                            • chancellor
                              MVP
                              • Jan 2011
                              • 11653

                              Originally posted by Sour Masher
                              Why? She did much worse than Biden in the primaries with that demo. And again, I say this as someone who favored her in the primaries.
                              Simple - she would be running against Trump in the general, not the Democratic field. And she didn't have one negative that was brought out with much more force in the general - namely, the omnibus anti-crime bill Biden co-authored in 1994 that was partially unwound by the First Step Act, signed by Trump. Sure, Biden tried to walk his support back - but that was years after it passed with untold thousands of lives impacted, and his words from his speech in 1994 couldn't be unsaid, either. Harris would not have to carry that baggage in the general.

                              In addition, if she felt support were a risk, she'd not have the baggage Biden had relative to a VP pick and could have picked an individual who'd have helped her even more in the general. Cory Booker comes immediately to mind, but I'm sure there are a couple dozen others.
                              I'm just here for the baseball.

                              Comment

                              • Pauly
                                Journeyman
                                • Jan 2011
                                • 3747

                                Trump has been sowing the "Democrats are the next communists" for three years now with the Cuban and Venezuelan voters in S. Florida (who it obviously hits close to home with). I am fairly sure that no Dem candidate would have done any better in this area of the country, and with Sanders/Warren the narrative might have been more negative.

                                This is not representative of all latino voters, but certainly for this subset in this area of the country.

                                Sorry I know I never post politics, but this was on my mind as I lurked.

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