Election 2020

[Sour Masher]

Obama was black though. It shouldn't matter, but it did.

But who knows?

I don't think it mattered in terms of McConnell obstructionism. I fear we will see more of the same. Maybe even worse. I'm still trying to find an answer to why McConnell can't rush through all the judiciary appointments he can till Biden takes office and then completely shut down every single new appointment during Biden's presidency. What stops a Senate from rejecting every single appointment, really?

This opinion piece makes the same point: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/polit...i1t?li=BBnbfcL

What does that mean? For starters, you can take all those meticulously prepared policy plans Biden and his team devised during the campaign and toss them in the trash. There will be no expansion of health coverage, no aggressive legislation to address climate change, no move toward universal child care, no increase in the minimum wage, no new Voting Rights Act and no infrastructure spending. None of it.

Nor will there be a new stimulus bill to help the economy recover from the pandemic, since McConnell knows that Biden will be blamed if the economy continues to struggle. At most — and even this is no guarantee — McConnell may allow continuing resolutions that keep the government open at its current funding levels. There will be no other significant legislation as long as Republicans retain control.

That’s just the beginning. McConnell now clearly believes that conservative domination of the courts is his most lasting legacy. Between now and January, during Trump’s lame duck period, McConnell and Judiciary Committee Chair Lindsey O. Graham (R-S.C.) will run a conveyor belt to confirm judges to every last open seat at every level.

And then the confirmation process will simply shut down. Forget about filling a Supreme Court vacancy if one occurs; McConnell won’t permit Biden to fill any judicial vacancy. Not one.

“Oh, come on,” you might be saying. “He’d never go that far.” You don’t think so? Just wait.

[Sour Masher]

Well, the 2022 midterms are also bad for the GOP senate, so it could bite them in the ass. Who knows.

IDK if I believe that at this point. The only thing I believe will get done right now is the stimulus stuff, because the Repubs definitely would lose if Biden could use the bully pulpit to point and Mitch and say "that man is why you don't have the money I want to give you." I'm not sure any other issues is enough of a cudgel to get McConnell to make a move to work with Biden. I hope I am wrong, but I cannot find any legal reason for why McConnell couldn't block everything, as long as he can continue to keep all the Repubs in line behind him. He did in in the Obama years.

[gcstomp]

Disappointed in dems performance, with not gaining senate majority. But Biden losing would have been just too much for too many, so thankful for this, what appears to be Biden victory. I am confused at trump making such gains with minorities. Such a nailbiter, and if not for the pandemic, maybe trump would have won easy peasy, despite him being a compulsive lying freakin vector of evil.

And what can Biden get done with Mcconnell still in place to hold everything up. This is a bummer, but again, could have been worse.

[umjewman]

I don't think it mattered in terms of McConnell obstructionism. I fear we will see more of the same. Maybe even worse. I'm still trying to find an answer to why McConnell can't rush through all the judiciary appointments he can till Biden takes office and then completely shut down every single new appointment during Biden's presidency. What stops a Senate from rejecting every single appointment, really?

This opinion piece makes the same point: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/polit...i1t?li=BBnbfcL

What does that mean? For starters, you can take all those meticulously prepared policy plans Biden and his team devised during the campaign and toss them in the trash. There will be no expansion of health coverage, no aggressive legislation to address climate change, no move toward universal child care, no increase in the minimum wage, no new Voting Rights Act and no infrastructure spending. None of it.

Nor will there be a new stimulus bill to help the economy recover from the pandemic, since McConnell knows that Biden will be blamed if the economy continues to struggle. At most — and even this is no guarantee — McConnell may allow continuing resolutions that keep the government open at its current funding levels. There will be no other significant legislation as long as Republicans retain control.

That’s just the beginning. McConnell now clearly believes that conservative domination of the courts is his most lasting legacy. Between now and January, during Trump’s lame duck period, McConnell and Judiciary Committee Chair Lindsey O. Graham (R-S.C.) will run a conveyor belt to confirm judges to every last open seat at every level.

And then the confirmation process will simply shut down. Forget about filling a Supreme Court vacancy if one occurs; McConnell won’t permit Biden to fill any judicial vacancy. Not one.

“Oh, come on,” you might be saying. “He’d never go that far.” You don’t think so? Just wait.

I'm not saying it's not possible. But, this time around, he will have less room for defectors. If it ends up 51-49, he has to keep every R in check if Biden wins. Can he keep all 51 in line? I don't know that he can. He was in a much better position to do so when he had 53 and the Presidency, requiring 4 defectors on anything significant.

[gcstomp]

Now for the good.... What can Biden do, even in the face of a complete non cooperative senate? Rejoin Paris Climate accord. Listen to health experts, Fauci, in best practices to minimize the 100k a day infections/1k a day deaths from pandemic. Install best qualified people across exec branch positions, instead of trumps efforts to put least qualified, most partisan people. I mean, instead of betsy devos, Barr, etc imagine someone who simply puts best qualified people in positions. Like maybe someone in charge of epa who believes in global warming.

What else? Again assuming worse case of absolute total obstruction from Mcconell, Biden could still issue exec orders on the scale that trump did, just push limits and let courts push back. Maybe allow evidence of criminal wrongdoing can be pursued against trump, his cronies, Harris could make it a priority that justice is brought in form of all kinds of pressure. I dunno, but precedent has been set with trump, so how about dems just dont be pushovers and that can take form in countless ways as we have green light to blow by prior norms.

[Sour Masher]

I'm not saying it's not possible. But, this time around, he will have less room for defectors. If it ends up 51-49, he has to keep every R in check if Biden wins. Can he keep all 51 in line? I don't know that he can. He was in a much better position to do so when he had 53 and the Presidency, requiring 4 defectors on anything significant.

I hope it does end up at least 51-49, and you may be right about that. I do believe we can find at least one person to flip on many issues. On some things, someone like Collins because very powerful and can demand a lot. If this ends up 48-52, though, gah.

[TranaGreg]

CNN giving Michigan to Biden, now 253-213 ... he only needs NV & AZ ...

[onejayhawk]

I don't think Nate Silver's polling aggregation is the problem, it's (1) the accuracy of the polls themselves, and (2) Nate Silver's idea that he could turn his polling aggregations into an accurate projection of election chances. I said before that he was way off on his understanding of what the polls might be missing (i.e., the systematic bias as opposed to random sample error) and how those errors would correlate from state to state.

In 2016, polls actually did pretty well except for a small number of Midwestern states. It seems like maybe they were off a lot more badly and broadly this time around, although I don't know if that's true.

This is the old difference between precision and accuracy. Nate Silver tried to increase the precision, but that doesn't help if the accuracy is off.

For you non math/science types, think of shooting free throws. Precision is repeating the motion exactly. Accuracy is having the group centered in the middle of the basket. To shoot 90%, you have to do both. The pollsters may be getting a nice cluster, ie precision, but the aim is off.

From my experience, I would guess that Trafalgar has a point. The bulk of pollsters don't get a good cross section and Trump support is in the section they are missing. Ann Selzer proved old methods could get it right, if you work hard enough.

I really wanted Nate to be vindicated but... yeah it's still bad.

I think Silver's model is pretty good, but GIGO.

Well, the 2022 midterms are also bad for the GOP senate, so it could bite them in the ass. Who knows.

Moderately. It's not like the Democrat map in 2018.

It looks like 19-14 with one undecided in Georgia. However, 11 of the Republican seats and seven of the Democrats seats are safe or close to it. That makes it more of an 8-4 contest, favoring the Democrats.

[frae]

I like where Biden is to win but I want PA...

[Ken]

McConnell and other GOP leadership has started breaking with Trump. They are pushing back against Trump's "stop counting votes" directive.

I guess they see the sinking ship and realize it's time to jump off.

[frae]

Betting odds are cratering, -667 for Biden now.

[Kevin Seitzer]

Trump's lead is down to 287k votes in Pennsylvania now. It doesn't seem likely that will continue to hold up. It's been steadily grinding downward all day. Georgia's getting closer, too, within 60k votes now.

[umjewman]

Trump's lead is down to 287k votes in Pennsylvania now. It doesn't seem likely that will continue to hold up. It's been steadily grinding downward all day. Georgia's getting closer, too, within 60k votes now.

Yeah, but he did just claim those states on Twitter, so they can stop counting. I think that’s binding.

[Sour Masher]

Yeah, but he did just claim those states on Twitter, so they can stop counting. I think that’s binding.

That is the 4d chess of a man who looks beyond the silly rules of the game we call democracy. All you need is the brass balls to call dibs on anything you want and whine until you get your way. At the next Indy 500, the driver who takes an early lead should just stop the race at lap 50 and say he won.

[The Feral Slasher]

That is the 4d chess of a man who looks beyond the silly rules of the game we call democracy. All you need is the brass balls to call dibs on anything you want and whine until you get your way. At the next Indy 500, the driver who takes an early lead should just stop the race at lap 50 and say he won.

So Indy drivers are good at chess ?