Election 2020

[Ken]

If 86% of the vote is in, then Trump needs to win something like 58% of the outstanding votes to overcome the 93,000 vote lead that Biden currently has. Where did you see that the late vote is expected to go Trump's way?

538 live blog. Full post:

GEOFFREY SKELLEY
NOV. 4, 10:58 AM
So, earlier I said that Biden had a lead in Arizona of around 3.5 points with about 99 percent of the expected vote in. It turns out that there may have been some sort of issue with Edison Research’s data stream, however, and there may actually be less of the expected vote in. That obviously matters as the vote has trended toward Trump since Biden led after the initial vote returns were announced in Arizona. All we know is that Biden is ahead and that some votes remain to be counted in Arizona.

[MagSeven]

Yeah I'm seeing the trends now, you are right.

Good news this morning after a rough night last night. Although this is what we all predicted, early numbers red, late numbers blue.

The only problem will be the Orange buffoon contesting just about every mail in vote in Pa due to 'signature issues'.

[Teenwolf]

I think that we have to look at this very closely in the future...

Thats the biggest load of horseshit. Joe Biden was hurt because of Trump's attacks that he's a socialist? Give me a break.

Biden has been saying he'll have Republicans on his cabinet, and that's not reaching out to Republicans enough?! We'll have plenty of time to debate what went wrong for Biden, but this analysis is trash.

The Lincoln Project said they would bring Republicans over to Biden... I heard Trump went from collecting 90% of registered Republicans in '16 up to 93% in this election! Great fucking job! Let's share their videos everywhere to help them build a media empire so they can fundraise to support down-ballot Republicans....

All the Libs here dropped the ball circle-jerking to right wing propaganda that acted as soothsayer, "don't worry, right wingers agree with you, he's a vile human, and once we expose that, he'll be finished." You all fell for an elaborate rope-a-dope.

[Ken]

The only problem will be the Orange buffoon contesting just about every mail in vote in Pa due to 'signature issues'.

Right now Biden doesn't even need PA.

[Ken]

I heard Trump went from collecting 90% of registered Republicans in '16 up to 93% in this election! Great fucking job! Let's share their videos everywhere to help them build a media empire so they can fundraise to support down-ballot Republicans....

How can we know that without votes counted yet?

[Kevin Seitzer]

Based on the counties that are still out in Arizona, things would seem to tilt Biden's way, but I don't know if that's an accurate way to look at things given how votes are split between in-person and absentee and what order those are counted.

The most remaining votes are in Maricopa (narrowly Biden) and Pima (heavily Biden). Pinal, Cochise, and Mohave are the largest remaining groups of voters from Trump counties, but those are offset by similar-sized Biden county groups in Apache and Coconino. Again, not sure if county-level math is the right way to do this, but if the current margins hold:

Maricopa, 267k votes remaining, expected to net 16k more votes for Biden.
Pima, 57k votes remaining, expected to net 12k more votes for Biden.
Apache, 13k votes remaining, expected to net 4k more votes for Biden.
Coconino, 10k votes remaining, expected to net 3k more votes for Biden.
Cochise, 15k votes remaining, expected to net 2k more votes for Trump.
Pinal, 16k votes remaining, expected to net 2k more votes for Trump.
Mohave, 4k votes remaining, expected to net 2k more votes for Trump.
Other 8 counties collectively have 14k votes remaining and would be expected to net 3k more votes for Trump.

It's hard to see Trump finding 94k net votes here, unless the Maricopa vote remaining is expected to break a lot differently than the 86% of the Maricopa vote that is already in. Which, of course, I don't know.

[Teenwolf]

How can we know that without votes counted yet?

Sure, we won't know the final numbers until all the votes are in.
I think its pretty clear the Lincoln Project didn't help one iota as was already made clear through data, weeks or months ago, yet some folks refused to believe it wasn't helping. I showed that analysis regarding the ineffectiveness of personal attacks on Trump vs the effect of fiscally beneficial policies and it was a landslide in favor of the stuff that actually helps people.

You think laughing at the ineffectiveness of Trump's Hunter Biden smears while spreading the left wing equivalent was a productive exercise given how horribly polling discounted support for Trump?

[chancellor]

Well, after looking at all the outstanding votes in districts, here's how I see it:

- Michigan is in the bag for Biden. Most of the outstanding votes remain in districts where he's at least even, and one where he'll get about 70%.
- Georgia is fuzzier than I thought - almost all of Atlanta is in, but there's metro areas out that favor Biden, especially Gwinnett. There's a couple districts with significant votes out that favor Trump, but not with the vote quantity Gwinnett has out. However, I still think Trump holds Georgia, though the point about Perdue falling below 50% is very likely.
- Pennsylvania has a fair amount of votes out that favor Biden, but he's down a ton. He needs about 74% of that vote to come in his way by my math.
- Wisconsin is exceptionally weird. Milwaukee, for a change, is completely in. Kenosha and Brown counties have the most out from what I see. Kenosha, so far, has not come in at anywhere near the Dem levels compared to the past. Brown County's outstanding votes appear centered in Green Bay, which traditionally leans a little blue, but the Dems were clobbered in the State Senate and Assembly races. I think Biden has enough to barely hold, but the difference will end up well within recount range. Send lawyers, guns and money....
- Nevada looks completely in the bag for Biden. I have no idea why it hasn't been called.
- NC is a total unknown. From my old contacts down there, Mecklenberg County is well ahead of other counties in counting mail-in, but they will likely compile it all together and post on Nov. 12th. Depending on who you believe, there's 100 - 150,000 mail-in votes outstanding (best estimate is near 115k), but only about 10-15% of them from the Charlotte area. However, if a major chunk is from the Raleigh-Durham area, Trump is in trouble. If not, both he and Tillis will likely be safe. However, I think this is another state where the lawyers will be exceptionally active.

But I think Biden has by far the best outs to 270 or more. The Senate will be where a lot of action is also.

[Kevin Seitzer]

Hm, this is the closest thing I've found to a story on what is still outstanding in Arizona, and even it doesn't say which direction these ballots are expected to lean:

https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/11/04/least-400-k-ballots-left-count-arizona-republic-estimates-and-number-certainly-higher/6157997002/

I do think it's clear that most of the outstanding ballots are from Maricopa County and most of those constitute mail/absentee ballots that were received since Sunday. But I have no idea what that means for which way they lean. The count definitely narrowed overnight in Trump's favor, and if that trend continued, might be enough to narrowly put him ahead. No idea if that's what is to be expected from these ballots.

[onejayhawk]

Just curious. What time did everyone get to bed this morning? I was about 0130.

The Senate races are worth an eye. The possibility of 50-49 with a special race in Georgia is significant. That race will be in January.

In the case of an EV tie, the House would vote by state delegations, not individually, correct?

J

[Kevin Seitzer]

[Ken]

So Trump needs ~65% of those remaining votes to take AZ.

[chancellor]

In the case of an EV tie, the House would vote by state delegations, not individually, correct?

That's correct. Went to bed early when I realized at least six states would be nowhere near done until today or later.

[frae]

Wisconsin elections commission says all the ballots have been counted and we are just waiting for the last dump to the county websites.

[gcstomp]

One view solidified imo, is polling is not to be taken too seriously. The numbers trump hit in florida, for instance, were beyond even the most rosy of ranges. Polling can be discounted and Nate Silver can maybe install himself in a snazzy astrology website or something equally as accurate in the prediction biz. Sickening lowpoints in early hours, but at this point seems like Biden will stumble to 270, and trump will howl in ways we can scarcely imagine, but it will not move the needle. He gone.