Election 2020

[Hornsby]

[revo]

It looks to me like the GOP will retain the Senate, and that is depressing, because that will severely hinder anything getting done at all under Biden. The polls were wrong many places, but boy were they way off in Maine with Susan Collins.

Remember in Maine, they have a crazy election system where voters choose a backup candidate. If a candidate doesn't get 50% of the vote, then the candidate with the lowest vote total gets lopped off and their votes go to the backup choice. Right now, Collins is at 50.9% with 15% of the vote left to be counted.

[frae]

Betting odds have really dropped this hour, down to -556 for a Biden win now.

[MagSeven]

Not really following the logic there - winning that one county doesn't make up the 700K deficit. He needs similar numbers for all counties which seems very unlikely.

Allegheny County (Pittsburgh) and the Philadelphia area are predominantly Blue; those votes are the ones left to be counted.

[Ken]

Allegheny County (Pittsburgh) and the Philadelphia area are predominantly Blue; those votes are the ones left to be counted.

Yeah I'm seeing the trends now, you are right.

Good news this morning after a rough night last night. Although this is what we all predicted, early numbers red, late numbers blue.

[Kevin Seitzer]

So Biden, we think, has 270 electoral votes, assuming nothing goes the other direction in any of Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, or Wisconsin? And Pennsylvania (20) and Georgia (16) are still unknowns?

Pennsylvania seems to be headed firmly into the Biden camp once all the counting is done, but we shall see. And Georgia seems to be a true unknown at this point. I guess North Carolina (15) is still unknown at this point, too, but likely to remain in the Trump column.

Is that an accurate assessment?

Has anyone seen the breakdown for the 4 electoral votes in Maine? I know everyone believed it would go 3 to Biden and 1 to Trump, but I haven't seen actual results for that.

[Ken]

Has anyone seen the breakdown for the 4 electoral votes in Maine? I know everyone believed it would go 3 to Biden and 1 to Trump, but I haven't seen actual results for that.

Argh, it's hard to find it broken out. I know 3 of the 4 have been called for Biden and the last one is too close to call but can't find the numbers on the 4th.

[Kevin Seitzer]

Argh, it's hard to find it broken out. I know 3 of the 4 have been called for Biden and the last one is too close to call but can't find the numbers on the 4th.

270towin.com reports Trump up 52% to 45% in Maine's 2nd District:

https://www.270towin.com/news/2020/11/04/presidential-election-undecided-remaining-paths-270-electoral-votes_1123.html

[frae]

So Biden, we think, has 270 electoral votes, assuming nothing goes the other direction in any of Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, or Wisconsin? And Pennsylvania (20) and Georgia (16) are still unknowns?

Pennsylvania seems to be headed firmly into the Biden camp once all the counting is done, but we shall see. And Georgia seems to be a true unknown at this point. I guess North Carolina (15) is still unknown at this point, too, but likely to remain in the Trump column.

Is that an accurate assessment?

Has anyone seen the breakdown for the 4 electoral votes in Maine? I know everyone believed it would go 3 to Biden and 1 to Trump, but I haven't seen actual results for that.

Yeah I can't find good data on Maine-2 or a call anywhere on it, Biden has 3 of the electorates but not sure on the 4th. The rest of your assessment seems accurate. Georgia seems to be a true tossup, but the votes that will come in will tilt Democratic.

NC will come down to how much is out there, I can't find anything that tells me that. I'd say yes you have to make Trump a favorite there, maybe 70/30 or better?

MI, WI, AZ, and NV look very good and I just don't see anyway the vote coming in is going to tilt toward Trump.

[frae]

270towin.com reports Trump up 52% to 45% in Maine's 2nd District:
https://www.270towin.com/news/2020/1...otes_1123.html

Thanks for that twitter was letting me down.

[Ken]

MI, WI, AZ, and NV look very good and I just don't see anyway the vote coming in is going to tilt toward Trump.

Just saw that the late vote in AZ is actually on the Trump side although it's unclear how much is left.

[Ken]

North Dakota elected David Andahl to it's state legislature.

Problem, he died from COVID-19 on Oct 5th.

[chancellor]

North Dakota elected David Andahl to it's state legislature.

Problem, he died from COVID-19 on Oct 5th.

West Wing did a show on that...

[Kevin Seitzer]

Just saw that the late vote in AZ is actually on the Trump side although it's unclear how much is left.

If 86% of the vote is in, then Trump needs to win something like 58% of the outstanding votes to overcome the 93,000 vote lead that Biden currently has. Where did you see that the late vote is expected to go Trump's way?

[frae]

West Wing did a show on that...

Orange County, Horton Wilde wins with that crafty Will Bailey running the campaign.