Election 2020

[Sour Masher]

I don't see a whole lot of value in national numbers. Clinton beat Trump nationally, but lost the election. The swing states are what matter. Frae and others, what are the swing states telling us? At this point, I'm not real optimistic about Biden's chances, but if he is doing great in the 5-6 states that will actually decide this thing, it would make me feel better about his chances.

[frae]

I don't see a whole lot of value in national numbers. Clinton beat Trump nationally, but lost the election. The swing states are what matter. Frae and others, what are the swing states telling us? At this point, I'm not real optimistic about Biden's chances, but if he is doing great in the 5-6 states that will actually decide this thing, it would make me feel better about his chances.

I agree those states matter the most but the national polls can tell us something, If Biden really is up an average of 6 he is in a great spot. As I noted Clinton was up 3 points in Nov and won by 2 points but lost the states she needed. If she were up 6 and won by 5 she probably wins PA, WI, and MI.

We don't have good state to state polling yet. 538 is not yet listing state by state races or showing me how polls are rated, but RCP does have some stuff up so I will share, but I don't know how to value this.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html

First nationally RCP has Biden +6.7 on average of all polls.

Now I will list these but the dates on these polls are older and obviously shit is happening fast.

Michigan Biden +4.4 avg https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...iden-6761.html

Wisconsin Biden +2.7. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...iden-6849.html

PA Biden +3.8 https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...iden-6861.html

Florida Biden +0.4 https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...iden-6841.html

Arizona Biden +3.8 https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...iden-6807.html

NC Biden +3.4 https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...iden-6807.html

Again those polls are older, but I do think if the national average is trending toward +6 or +7 for Biden then we will see these battleground states moving his way. We know he won't make the mistake of ignoring them that Clinton did and I think he plays well in Michgian and PA. Wisconsin FL, AZ, and NC are going to be interesting.

[revo]

Biden won't win. you sacrificed your souls again for false hope.

That's silly. He was a dead man walking until the SC primary. The media was writing his political obituary. If anything, his rise from the ashes is a major positive, not a negative.

[GwynnInTheHall]

I really hate the narrative that those of us on Rotojunkie got together and chose a bad nominee, but the poster of that sentiment rises above the collective guilt he imposes on others. If "we" sacrificed our souls, then so did you. If "we" had the power to change it, then you had the power to change it. And if you had the power to change it and didn't, why didn't you?

After watching both the 2016 & 2020 primaries do you honestly believe Sanders had the 'power' to change anything?

And I am specifically talking about the nomination process.

[Sour Masher]

We know he won't make the mistake of ignoring them that Clinton did and I think he plays well in Michgian and PA.

I do agree with this and it gives me some hope. I continue to be perplexed about the lack of acknowledgement by some that Biden appears to have lost a step recently, and I still lament that fact that he beat out younger, more "on the ball" candidates, many of whom fell out early without ever being able to overcome Biden's reputation and name appeal. It worries me when it comes time for him to come back into the spotlight against Trump. Of course, it perplexes me more that a single American would vote to reelect Trump, but nonetheless, I'm still concerned about Biden's chances. But yeah, I have faith in one thing, at least--he will push hard in Michigan and PA, and he will be more mindful of how he talks to those voters than Clinton was.

[Kevin Seitzer]

After watching both the 2016 & 2020 primaries do you honestly believe Sanders had the 'power' to change anything?

And I am specifically talking about the nomination process.

No, I think most of us here are doing the best we can. Which is why blaming people on this forum is both incorrect and ineffective for bringing about change.

I do understand that frustration/anger gets to all of us at some point, though.

[GwynnInTheHall]

No, I think most of us here are doing the best we can. Which is why blaming people on this forum is both incorrect and ineffective for bringing about change.

I do understand that frustration/anger gets to all of us at some point, though.

I suppose it's more about the perception that if you aren't advocating for positive change as often as you can until it occurs, you're not really serious about that change.

As an analogy, if you're an athlete who hits the gym all the time, you're not going to think someone who is there half the time you are is as serious about working out as you are. That's just human nature and If you're both on the same team and that team loses, you're again, naturally going to blame the guy who you, through experience, has shown he's not working as hard as you are.

[DMT]

I suppose it's more about the perception that if you aren't advocating for positive change as often as you can until it occurs, you're not really serious about that change.

As an analogy, if you're an athlete who hits the gym all the time, you're not going to think someone who is there half the time you are is as serious about working out as you are. That's just human nature and If you're both on the same team and that team loses, you're again, naturally going to blame the guy who you, through experience, has shown he's not working as hard as you are.

I fail to be persuaded by this analogy. First, professional athletes are, with very few exceptions, extremely hard workers. If they weren't they wouldn't be in the pros. None of us in here are professional advocates for change so calling out others for not putting forth enough effort is ridiculous IMO. Furthermore, it ignores the reality that many people believe in incremental change strategies rather than "the revolution". Those who do would argue that they aren't less committed to positive change, but rather are more realistic about how much positive change can happen in the USA of 2020. We have a failed businessman/reality TV star as POTUS FFS, and he has a fighter's chance at being re-elected despite being the worst president in any of our lifetimes. There is no way "the revolution" stands a chance of happening, no matter how hard any of us fight.

[GwynnInTheHall]

I fail to be persuaded by this analogy. First, professional athletes are, with very few exceptions, extremely hard workers. If they weren't they wouldn't be in the pros. None of us in here are professional advocates for change so calling out others for not putting forth enough effort is ridiculous IMO. Furthermore, it ignores the reality that many people believe in incremental change strategies rather than "the revolution". Those who do would argue that they aren't less committed to positive change, but rather are more realistic about how much positive change can happen in the USA of 2020. We have a failed businessman/reality TV star as POTUS FFS, and he has a fighter's chance at being re-elected despite being the worst president in any of our lifetimes. There is no way "the revolution" stands a chance of happening, no matter how hard any of us fight.

Really? How would you say Incremental change has helped us during the current crisis? How much better prepared to handle this would we be today had we elected Sanders in 2016?

We have shown over the past moth we can find money if we deem it necessary and fundamentally change our way of life if it's important enough.

Everything we have done and are doing this past 45 days or so IS the revolution in practice.

FWIW, I don't think being a Pro athlete or Pro ANYTHING is any different from trying to be the best possible version of one's self everyday. Some people just put certain things in front of others when it comes to importance and how far they're willing to go to achieve said things. So no none of us are Professional anything in here outside of what we're paid to do but there are those of us who advocate more often and more passionately than o0thers, which doesn't make us better than anyone, but when what we're advocating for fails, if blame is to be assigned, it certainly wouldn't be as much our fault than it would be those who didn't do as much.


Think of it this way, who's trying harder to help diminish the spread of Covid-19--Someone who went full revolution day 1, never left the house, sanitized everything, always wears gloves and a mask or the incrementalist who waited for the Govt to force them to do the same?

I'd say the Revolutionary.

[swampdragon]

Biden VP candidates

I still dont see Biden picking Harris as VP - maybe a cabinet position or AG

Are there any non-Biden supporters (That you know) who would support him if any of these people were selected as VP? and if yes - who?

https://www.boston.com/news/politics...resident-picks

[nullnor]

adopting nihilism hmm. i don't see anything wrong here

[nullnor]

what amazes me is you guys think arguing about this among yourselves actually think it changes anything. like your sudden single opinion or revelation is going to change everything. that's crazy thought. so what it really tells me is, you are just trying to work out your own problems, and if you can convince others to come to your conclusions, you will feel more confident. this if further evidence that everyone has no idea what we are doing.

[nullnor]

I really hate the narrative that those of us on Rotojunkie got together and chose a bad nominee, but the poster of that sentiment rises above the collective guilt he imposes on others. If "we" sacrificed our souls, then so did you. If "we" had the power to change it, then you had the power to change it. And if you had the power to change it and didn't, why didn't you?

it's an eloquent question. assuming you mean i don't vote or people vote trump in protest. i mean it's pretty shocking to still hold your nose after a pandemic like this and still say a little change isn't good enough so lets go off the cliff. i think that change is very hard. everyone runs on it but maybe it's my own fault for not accepting small incremental changes. but it's going to take something really big for big changes. Biden is corporate Joe. you agree with the system. the stakes are high, this won't be the first disaster or the last. i have very little faith in people's ability to change. that's why i hold out for something bigger unless something even worse happens. and it will unless we really change.

[nullnor]

all we are doing is buying ourselves more time. but we aren't changing anything.

[cardboardbox]

As always I try not to take one poll to indicate a lot, but Biden was +11 on Trump today in a CNN/SSRS poll that is rated A/B on 538, he was plus 4 the A+ Monmouth poll today, Quinnipiac rated B+ yesterday Biden was +8. The other national polls. yesterday that were highly rated (B or better rating) both had Biden at +5. The average probably puts Biden at +6 or 7, but I won't say he is up that many until we get days more of this data. No real value in my mind looking at where Trump and Clinton were at this time, too many different factors now with Trump being an incumbent, but I think it will be worth comparing where they were at the end vs these polls as they go. Clinton was up 3 points in the final average polls going into the election and won by 2 points. Biden probably needs to win by 3 points to win the EC? So he needs to really have a +5 avg to feel safe?

I am curious to see how sites project the chances of victory this time. The only thing I can check now is gambling sites and right now they have Trump as a slight favorite at -121 and Biden dropped to +114 with Sanders out (https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/po...election-odds/). Anyway it continues to look like a very close race and the COVID 19 pandemic is something no one can possibly know how to factor in yet.

I dont think Trump will win, but I just want to point out that his approval rating is about the same as Obama in April 2012.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/154343/obama-averages-job-approval-april.aspx

I think Biden +2 would be plenty to win the EC, 2016 was unusual.