Election 2020

[GwynnInTheHall]

And people like yourself act like Trump really isn't that bad because the system needed a good shake up.

That's how I act?

One thing's for sure--whatever the outcome of this election is, I'm gonna be enjoying the hell out of it because no matter what happens.

I win.

[Teenwolf]

I've never questioned Sanders' integrity, and the fact that you keep trying to pretend that I have is revealing. I'd remind you again that in 2016, I volunteered, donated, and voted for Sanders if I thought it would make any sort of dent in your shield of self righteousness, but we both know better.

Sorry, since you turned into a pathetic troll I kinda stopped giving a shit about you entirely. Sincerely, thanks for adding some substantive points, regardless of our disagreements.

Forgive my misrepresentation of the truth. I know you're great at that.

[Sour Masher]

That's how I act?

One thing's for sure--whatever the outcome of this election is, I'm gonna be enjoying the hell out of it because no matter what happens.

I win.

You win if Trump wins? Really? You will take self-righteous pleasure in him winning over Sanders or another Dem? You do well so often with your points and then every once in awhile you make a point like this and I'm left perplexed, amazed, and appalled.

I would appreciate an explanation about why you will "win" and "enjoy the hell of this election" by Sanders losing unfairly in the primaries, or in the general, because Dems do not unite behind him or he cannot get enough independents or moderate conservative converts in key states. You work for the man's campaign and believe in what he does...I can't believe you really would take joy in his defeat, just because the way he might be defeated would prove you "right" in some way. But that is what your comment says. It truly dumbfounds me that you would enjoy and "win" with an outcome of Sanders losing and Trump winning.

[GwynnInTheHall]

You win if Trump wins? Really? You will take self-righteous pleasure in him winning over Sanders or another Dem? You do well so often with your points and then every once in awhile you make a point like this and I'm left perplexed, amazed, and appalled.

I would appreciate an explanation about why you will "win" and "enjoy the hell of this election" by Sanders losing unfairly in the primaries, or in the general, because Dems do not unite behind him or he cannot get enough independents or moderate conservative converts in key states. You work for the man's campaign and believe in what he does...I can't believe you really would take joy in his defeat, just because the way he might be defeated would prove you "right" in some way. But that is what your comment says. It truly dumbfounds me that you would enjoy and "win" with an outcome of Sanders losing and Trump winning.

Sure, it's pretty easy.

This is an internet forum, I've met several of you, others I have no idea if you're what you represent online or if much of what you say is just being a trollish dick.

I've also stated that I enjoy karma, schadenfreude and saying I told you so.

I've also stated, that if you do not strive to do the right thing (in this case not compromise ethically) you deserve what you get.

I see 3 outcomes in this election.

1 Sanders gets the nomination and beats Trump.

My obvious best case scenario--I win.

2. The DNC and the rest of the Democratic field play fair, show Sanders the respect they didn't in 2016--Someone ELSE wins the nomination, Sanders endorses the and we Sanders supporters, appeased that everyone did the right thing and Sanders lost Fair and Square this time, and whomever is the Nominee beats Trump and Yay!! I win.

3. The DNC and/or one of the other candidates pulls the same shit that HRC and the DNC did in 2016, Sanders gets screwed, the party splits (because that's gonna happen if the fuck Bernie again) and Trump wins. Four more years of, how could we let this happen again? What went wrong? It's all Bernie and his supporters fault for not being team players!! Trump for 4 more years will truly suck and I can bitch about him an at the same time bitch at those who didn't take what I had to say seriously, blew me off as "deluded" I can rub their faces in their failure for 4 more years. It's less pleasurable because that idiot will be in charge, but I still get to say I told ya so till people want to punch me in the face.

I don't see your scenario where Sanders loses to Trump in a fair fight. it just won't happen, unless the HRC crowd want's some perceived "Payback" for 2016 and goes off res. and in that case--They get what they deserve--Trump for 4 more years. And as much as I hate Trump, I am truly solaced when people ignore me and/or what I have to say and in the end it turns out I was right and they're standing around trying to find something to blame outside of their own willful ignorance.


I believe Gloria said it best....Sometimes when you win, you really lose, and sometimes when you lose, you really win, and sometimes when you win or lose, you actually tie, and sometimes when you tie, you actually win or lose. Winning or losing is all one organic mechanism, from which one extracts what one needs.
I thyink Gloria said it best

[Teenwolf]

Whoa, big shots from Sour Masher, deftly parried by GITH.

[Teenwolf]

Love that TW understands the thinking of all Americans better than all of us Americans.

I'm into predictions, and I'm into political theory. I think I'm pretty good with predictions, but I've had my share of duds.

I feel embarrassed that I fell for the MSM Russiagate BS, whole fucking hog. I was watching Rachel Maddow, as well as my usual lefty sources, but I believed there would be some major connection that just wasn't there. Smart pundits like Glenn Greenwald and Matt Taibbi were saying it was total nonsense early on, but I chose to buy into the significance of minutia from Marcy Wheeler and others that ultimately failed to deliver anything but a media victory for Trump. So I was wrong on that one. I'm not flawless. But I at least digested many sources before drawing my own conclusions, wrong as I was.

But for impeachment, I was totally right from the start. It was a terrible case to seek impeachment on, and would only hand Trump a big W. Before impeachment, Trump's approval was in the low 40', since then its bumped into high 40's. I'm not celebrating that fact, it scares me to see Trump with any shot at holding the WH. But I was right, and when certain posters were real aggressive jerks in dismissing my opinions, I think its only right that I should take some much deserved pleasure in saying "I fucking told you so". But that's because I still think Sanders will crush him in the general, so call it my "bias".

Can you stop acting like I think I'm some all-seeing wizard now? I have a good record, but I also try to hold myself accountable when my instincts are wrong and try to figure out how to better analyze things going forward.

When I went through the 2016 thread, I noticed DMT and nots had some of the consistently most accurate takes. nots has had a pretty solid read this time around as well. I think most posters here were with me on Russiagate sinking Trump, so we've all had our prognostication highs and lows, really.

[Teenwolf]

I also want to dispel the rumor that I never criticize Sanders by saying that I think he's too willing to adhere to the new far left "cancel culture". He's shown this on several occasions. He's so conservative about attacking his Democratic opponents, it drives me crazy. When he was criticized for Zephyr Teachout's article detailing Joe Biden's corruption and he claimed he disagreed with her assessment. When he endorsed Cenk Uygur for Congress and then after weak character assassination attempts using writing from college, Bernie un-endorsed him within days. Actually, Cenk claims that he called the Sanders campaign and told them to un-endorse him, but either way. I dislike his willingness to cut someone down in order to appease higher powers, media narrative, etc.

He recently fired a Michigan field operative for making negative comments about Warren and Buttigieg on his private twitter account under an alias... and none of it was too terrible. He said "Pete Buttigieg is what happens when conversion doesn't take." From a gay person. I dunno... seems pretty weak grounds, but I'm not a twitter person, so I don't understand the complexities of open and private and official accounts and all of that.

I dislike these compromises he's made, but for those who see him as unwilling to compromise, maybe you see these as positive evidence?

[Sour Masher]

I don't see your scenario where Sanders loses to Trump in a fair fight. it just won't happen, unless the HRC crowd want's some perceived "Payback" for 2016 and goes off res. and in that case--They get what they deserve--Trump for 4 more years. And as much as I hate Trump, I am truly solaced when people ignore me and/or what I have to say and in the end it turns out I was right and they're standing around trying to find something to blame outside of their own willful ignorance.

This is wildly optimistic to me. Before the coronavirus hit, things were looking pretty bad for team good guys. Trump was polling solidly in the places that mattered most against Sanders et al (I continue to not get how so many obsess over national polls and polls in places that don't matter; what matters is the swing states!). I don't know where that is right now with the virus hit, but the idea that it is totally unfathomable that teflon Don has a shot at beating Sanders, unless those that voted for HRC in 2016 act like babies and vote against Bernie out of spite, is alien to my brain. It is certainly conceivable to me that Sanders loses some HRC voters not based on payback but based on messaging and those voters having differing values than Sanders, believe different things from him, do not want his policies advanced.

You really think that every single HRC voter likes Sanders' policies more than Trump's? That flies in the face of what you and TW and FS and many progressives here and everywhere have said about HRC, her policies, and many of those who supported her over Bernie in 2016. Bernie has to work his messaging and image with those voters to win them, or he needs to cede those votes and work even harder to bring in the new voters he has brought in to ensure victory.

The idea that people--especially people as passionate and committed as you and TW--think this is going to be a cake walk for Bernie, as long as it is a "fair fight" is scary to me. This is going to be a dog fight and I hope Sanders, assuming he is the nominee, and all those that work for him, including you, knows this and seeks to crush Trump with every fiber of his/their being. I hope he takes nothing for granted and goes pedal to the metal every second to the finish line. Especially in the key states HRC took for granted. I hope he works to get as many votes from as many people as possible. I hope he runs up the score till the buzzer sounds. Anything less and it could lead to Trump winning, just like it did in 2016.

[Sour Masher]

Man, I can't help but say again, if a guy as committed as GITH thinks this job is over if/when they help Sanders become the nominee, fuuuuck, we are in trouble. Please guys, especially you most fervent of Sanders' supporters, please don't take your victory lap after a conference finals win. Work to get the man all the way to the real goal--beating Trump. Open up your hearts and minds to recruiting, convincing, reaching out to those you sometimes seem to disdain or get frustrated by--the moderate dems, those that fear Sanders, or even hate him. Work for every vote, please! Do not do what HRC and her team did. Do not take Trump for granted as an easy W. Don't risk it, even if part of you believes it to be true.

[Don Quixote]

I see 3 outcomes in this election.

1 Sanders gets the nomination and beats Trump.

My obvious best case scenario--I win.

2. The DNC and the rest of the Democratic field play fair, show Sanders the respect they didn't in 2016--Someone ELSE wins the nomination, Sanders endorses the and we Sanders supporters, appeased that everyone did the right thing and Sanders lost Fair and Square this time, and whomever is the Nominee beats Trump and Yay!! I win.

3. The DNC and/or one of the other candidates pulls the same shit that HRC and the DNC did in 2016, Sanders gets screwed, the party splits (because that's gonna happen if the fuck Bernie again) and Trump wins. Four more years of, how could we let this happen again? What went wrong? It's all Bernie and his supporters fault for not being team players!! Trump for 4 more years will truly suck and I can bitch about him an at the same time bitch at those who didn't take what I had to say seriously, blew me off as "deluded" I can rub their faces in their failure for 4 more years. It's less pleasurable because that idiot will be in charge, but I still get to say I told ya so till people want to punch me in the face.

I don't see your scenario where Sanders loses to Trump in a fair fight. it just won't happen, unless the HRC crowd want's some perceived "Payback" for 2016 and goes off res. and in that case--They get what they deserve--Trump for 4 more years. And as much as I hate Trump, I am truly solaced when people ignore me and/or what I have to say and in the end it turns out I was right and they're standing around trying to find something to blame outside of their own willful ignorance.

Bernie's passionate socialism, including his defense of some of the most repressive regimes in history, and his free-stuff-for-everybody scares the crud out of most folks here in "flyover country". People are scared to death of the Democrats (or the "I'm a Democrat when I choose to be" types like Bernie) gaining control of both houses of Congress AND the White House, just as they're scared of the Republicans gaining full control. Really bad things tend to happen when one party has unchecked control or close to it AND their "leadership" is either unable or unwilling to lead properly, meaning keeping some internal discipline and sticking to a few main objectives. When I was young, back in the Jurassic Era, the problem was with pols who played to the cameras too much; now, it's the ones who play to the Internet/Twitter/Etc. all the time instead of doing their jobs.

If the Democrats in fact nominate Sanders, the Republicans are the clear favorites to hold the White House unless President Trump goes even more nuts than he is now or unless he and his campaign people become as overconfident as Hillary in 2016 and Fat Al in 2000.

I see eight scenarios.

1. Bernie wins the nomination and beats President Trump. Possible but quite improbable in my opinion. I just can't see Sanders winning enough of the states that Hillary ignored and lost.

2. Bernie wins the nomination and loses. Bernie declares a moral victory, which most people laugh at. If it's not a total landslide, could win him more respect on Capitol Hill.

3. Bernie loses the nomination fair and square, supports the nominee, and asks his supporters to lend their passion to the nominee, who wins. From what I've seen over the years from him, this is unlikely; he's more the "take the ball and go home" type who prefers total defeat to partial victory. It could happen, though, if his idealism is measured with realism. For once.

4. Same as #3, but the nominee loses. Could earn Sanders more respect on Capitol Hill instead of being treated as a cranky old guy who doesn't play well with others.

5. Bernie loses the nomination fair and square, but takes his ball and goes home, nominee wins despite that. Worst case scenario for him. Imagine a President Bloomberg or a President Biden reacting to Sanders demanding...anything.

6. Bernie loses the nomination fair and square, takes his ball, etc., nominee loses. Bernie becomes even more of a non-force because the other Democrats would be ticked.

7. Bernie gets screwed again, is right in saying "a plague o' both your houses" and doesn't support the nominee, nominee wins. Doesn't do Sanders much good, but may be better for the country.

8. Bernie gets screwed again, is right in saying "a plague o' both your houses" and doesn't support the nominee, nominee loses. The DNC types, the same ones who screwed him, have their media hack friends do a hatchet job on Bernie. Doesn't do the DNC elite much good to look like idiots, but it is what they do well.

Sorry to go on for so long, especially after being absent from these forums for so long. I'm one of those people who can't possibly support President Trump, but who is realistic about the possibility of the various remaining Democratic candidates defeating him.

[nots]

I'm into predictions, and I'm into political theory. I think I'm pretty good with predictions, but I've had my share of duds.

I feel embarrassed that I fell for the MSM Russiagate BS, whole fucking hog. I was watching Rachel Maddow, as well as my usual lefty sources, but I believed there would be some major connection that just wasn't there. Smart pundits like Glenn Greenwald and Matt Taibbi were saying it was total nonsense early on, but I chose to buy into the significance of minutia from Marcy Wheeler and others that ultimately failed to deliver anything but a media victory for Trump. So I was wrong on that one. I'm not flawless. But I at least digested many sources before drawing my own conclusions, wrong as I was.
.

Credit where credit is due, TW. I believe you are the first person in here who supported Russia gate to now denounce it. Most who celebrated and parroted every leak or new piece of ‘evidence’ just moved onto the next thing (or took shots at Taibbi, lol). Kudos

[swampdragon]

2. The DNC and the rest of the Democratic field play fair, show Sanders the respect they didn't in 2016--Someone ELSE wins the nomination, Sanders endorses the and we Sanders supporters, appeased that everyone did the right thing and Sanders lost Fair and Square this time, and whomever is the Nominee beats Trump and Yay!! I win.

I will happily endorse any of the current democratic nominees or even an off the board one if need be. I actively help with local campaigns and throw some money at critical dems across the country too.

Can you specify what is fair that works for all candidates?

A - candidate A gets majority of votes and delegates and is above 50% of all votes - that should be easy
B - candidate A get majority of votes and delegates and is below 50%
C - candidate A gets majority of delegate but not votes and is above 50%
D - candidate A gets majority of votes but not delegates and is above 50%
E - version C but below 50%
F - version d but below 50%

Hazier ones - try the scenarios without names of candidates
where current candidates pledge their delegates and/or votes to others - if that can be done
delegates are asked to repick their selections

I guess my question is "how is fair defined for ALL candidates"

thanks

[nots]

I will happily endorse any of the current democratic nominees or even an off the board one if need be. I actively help with local campaigns and throw some money at critical dems across the country too.

Can you specify what is fair that works for all candidates?

A - candidate A gets majority of votes and delegates and is above 50% of all votes - that should be easy
B - candidate A get majority of votes and delegates and is below 50%
C - candidate A gets majority of delegate but not votes and is above 50%
D - candidate A gets majority of votes but not delegates and is above 50%
E - version C but below 50%
F - version d but below 50%

Hazier ones - try the scenarios without names of candidates
where current candidates pledge their delegates and/or votes to others - if that can be done
delegates are asked to repick their selections

I guess my question is "how is fair defined for ALL candidates"

thanks

I know that question is directed to GITH, but I would like to weigh in.
The rules have been established for awhile now. You need 1990 delegates. If no one attains that, the Superdelegates get to vote. They are free to vote as they see fit. I believe everyone was aware of this prior to the campaign beginning, so I don’t know what makes it fair or unfair. The time to bicker over the rules was a year ago, not now.
Just one idiot’s (me) opinion......
Now, do I think whatever candidate has the most delegates will abide by that if they don’t get to 1990? Of course not, regardless of who that candidate is.

[GwynnInTheHall]

Man, I can't help but say again, if a guy as committed as GITH thinks this job is over if/when they help Sanders become the nominee, fuuuuck, we are in trouble. Please guys, especially you most fervent of Sanders' supporters, please don't take your victory lap after a conference finals win. Work to get the man all the way to the real goal--beating Trump. Open up your hearts and minds to recruiting, convincing, reaching out to those you sometimes seem to disdain or get frustrated by--the moderate dems, those that fear Sanders, or even hate him. Work for every vote, please! Do not do what HRC and her team did. Do not take Trump for granted as an easy W. Don't risk it, even if part of you believes it to be true.

I trust Sanders and his supporters not to take the foot off the gas, I've been in house now for a week and I've never seen people so dedicated and active. Maybe I haven't been in the belly of the political beast before to this extent ( being a delegate was active, but nothing like this) We have 2 days --Super Tuesday ends tomorrow night so it's be crazy busy. I believe I knw people and Sanders has a way, when pressed, to get the message through. If it's just him and Trump, he'll eviscerate him. FWIW, if HRC peeps have more in common with Trump than Bernie, well that says quite a lot doesn't it?

[GwynnInTheHall]

Bernie's passionate socialism, including his defense of some of the most repressive regimes in history, and his free-stuff-for-everybody scares the crud out of most folks here in "flyover country". People are scared to death of the Democrats (or the "I'm a Democrat when I choose to be" types like Bernie) gaining control of both houses of Congress AND the White House, just as they're scared of the Republicans gaining full control. Really bad things tend to happen when one party has unchecked control or close to it AND their "leadership" is either unable or unwilling to lead properly, meaning keeping some internal discipline and sticking to a few main objectives. When I was young, back in the Jurassic Era, the problem was with pols who played to the cameras too much; now, it's the ones who play to the Internet/Twitter/Etc. all the time instead of doing their jobs.

If the Democrats in fact nominate Sanders, the Republicans are the clear favorites to hold the White House unless President Trump goes even more nuts than he is now or unless he and his campaign people become as overconfident as Hillary in 2016 and Fat Al in 2000.

I see eight scenarios.

1. Bernie wins the nomination and beats President Trump. Possible but quite improbable in my opinion. I just can't see Sanders winning enough of the states that Hillary ignored and lost.

2. Bernie wins the nomination and loses. Bernie declares a moral victory, which most people laugh at. If it's not a total landslide, could win him more respect on Capitol Hill.

3. Bernie loses the nomination fair and square, supports the nominee, and asks his supporters to lend their passion to the nominee, who wins. From what I've seen over the years from him, this is unlikely; he's more the "take the ball and go home" type who prefers total defeat to partial victory. It could happen, though, if his idealism is measured with realism. For once.

4. Same as #3, but the nominee loses. Could earn Sanders more respect on Capitol Hill instead of being treated as a cranky old guy who doesn't play well with others.

5. Bernie loses the nomination fair and square, but takes his ball and goes home, nominee wins despite that. Worst case scenario for him. Imagine a President Bloomberg or a President Biden reacting to Sanders demanding...anything.

6. Bernie loses the nomination fair and square, takes his ball, etc., nominee loses. Bernie becomes even more of a non-force because the other Democrats would be ticked.

7. Bernie gets screwed again, is right in saying "a plague o' both your houses" and doesn't support the nominee, nominee wins. Doesn't do Sanders much good, but may be better for the country.

8. Bernie gets screwed again, is right in saying "a plague o' both your houses" and doesn't support the nominee, nominee loses. The DNC types, the same ones who screwed him, have their media hack friends do a hatchet job on Bernie. Doesn't do the DNC elite much good to look like idiots, but it is what they do well.

Sorry to go on for so long, especially after being absent from these forums for so long. I'm one of those people who can't possibly support President Trump, but who is realistic about the possibility of the various remaining Democratic candidates defeating him.

#9 an asteroid obliterates the world Nov 1st and nothing really matters anymore. Yes almost anything MIGHT happen, I'm saying I am pretty dialed in and the 3/4 scenarios I pointed out are most likely. The one thing I absolutely disagree with is the notion Bernie, after losing fair and square, would take his ball and go home. he'd never do that. If he did, his supporters would turn on him and never support him again because it is his Integrity more so than his platform that most of us are supporting.