Election 2020

[Sour Masher]

I am actually beginning to see a path for Bloomberg to win the nomination. Let’s say Sanders win 3 of the first 4 primaries with Biden getting an underwhelming win in SC. Buttigieg, Warren et al are cooked. The DNC (and especially the media) recoil at the thought of Sanders being the nominee and begin to put their finger on the scale again. Media has a lot of ‘articles’ portraying Sanders in a negative light. Bloomberg continues climbing in the polls and by (or right after) Super Tuesday, Obama (certainly no friend of Sanders and certainly not against a big money guy like Bloomberg) comes out with an endorsement for Mayor Mike. Bloomberg cruises to win after that and takes the nomination.
Certainly key not the likeliest of scenarios by any stretch, but for the first time, I can see it’s possible. Anyone with me on this at least being plausible?

After Trump's win, I'd say anything is possible. It is a narrow lane he has to go through, and he has to pass a lot of horses, but it isn't impossible. I think lots of voters are trying to find the most reliable moderate they can support. If he can prove to be that, he'd be able to pick up a lot of votes from the other moderates.

[B-Fly]

I'd also note that the Bloomberg path is also muddied by the continued presence of Tom Steyer in the race. Steyer has been campaigning longer and participating in the debates and therefore is still outpolling Bloomberg in many of the earlier states. I'm not sure, given his ability to largely self-fund, what would cause him to drop out. And if he's outperforming Bloomberg through the early primaries, why would Obama or others not potentially look to Steyer rather than Bloomberg if Biden should falter?

[Teenwolf]

Bloomberg has seen his support skyrocket in the Morning Consult poll, now up to 12% nationally, into 4th. Terrifying.

His only path to winning is a brokered convention, as well as likely a Biden exit before Super Tuesday so they aren't splitting votes. If Sanders wins the first 3 states, I don't think anybody could catch him, and polling shows that scenario being somewhat likely right now. I think Biden's falling apart, so it could happen that Bloomberg could step in to usurp his support before Super Tuesday. Not likely though.

I still think it's most likely Bloomberg runs 3rd party vs Sanders than paying a $Bn in ads supporting Sanders, but B-Fly assured me to trust Bloomberg, so I guess we'll see.

I want to see Bloomberg on the debate stage so he can be exposed. I wonder if they change the donation rules before the remaining 5 debates are done to showcase Bloomberg.

[Teenwolf]

I'd also note that the Bloomberg path is also muddied by the continued presence of Tom Steyer in the race. Steyer has been campaigning longer and participating in the debates and therefore is still outpolling Bloomberg in many of the earlier states. I'm not sure, given his ability to largely self-fund, what would cause him to drop out. And if he's outperforming Bloomberg through the early primaries, why would Obama or others not potentially look to Steyer rather than Bloomberg if Biden should falter?

Bloomberg isn't in the early states, and Steyer is highly unlikely to cross the 15% delegate threshold anywhere. Plus, Steyer isn't in the same league of Billionaire as Bloomberg, so he doesn't have the same endless funding available, or an entire media organization at his disposal.

[B-Fly]

I still think it's most likely Bloomberg runs 3rd party vs Sanders than paying a $Bn in ads supporting Sanders, but B-Fly assured me to trust Bloomberg, so I guess we'll see.

I'll assure you again. There is no way Bloomberg will run 3rd party against Trump and the Democratic nominee, even if it's Sanders, and he WILL offer a tremendous amount of financial support to defeat Trump, even if Sanders is the nominee. Will Sanders be too "pure" to accept that financial help, though? And if Sanders rejects it, will Bloomberg still spend huge sums on anti-Trump ads?

[nots]

Possible, yes. Plausible, I think you'd have to articulate a clearer case for factoring out Biden than "with Biden getting an underwhelming win in SC". Biden still has a ton more polling strength than Bloomberg overall and particularly with Black voters, and I think there is no way Obama would weigh in for Bloomberg with Biden still viable. If Obama makes an endorsement at all, it wouldn't be until it's clear that there's only one person left who can stave off a Sanders nomination. But yes, I do share your sense that Obama is sufficiently averse to Sanders that he would consider directly endorsing another candidate in the primaries. I suspect, however, that the most likely recipient of that endorsement would be still be Biden.

I think if Biden loses 3 of the first 4 primaries and has an underwhelming win in SC, he would no longer have a ‘ton more polling strength’ than Bloomberg. He would be (at best) hanging on for dear life.
Looking at the recent polling, it’s possible he finishes 4th in Iowa and 3rd in NH—you think he survives that, especially given his mediocre fundraising?

[Sour Masher]

I think if Biden loses 3 of the first 4 primaries and has an underwhelming win in SC, he would no longer have a ‘ton more polling strength’ than Bloomberg. He would be (at best) hanging on for dear life.
Looking at the recent polling, it’s possible he finishes 4th in Iowa and 3rd in NH—you think he survives that, especially given his mediocre fundraising?

Based on my anecdotal limited impressions, my sense is that a significant portion of the support Biden is getting in the AA community is based on the fact he is a known quantity they think is a safe and reliable choice. If his early performances show him not to be a safe winner candidate, I think that support can turn fairly quickly.

[B-Fly]

I think if Biden loses 3 of the first 4 primaries and has an underwhelming win in SC, he would no longer have a ‘ton more polling strength’ than Bloomberg. He would be (at best) hanging on for dear life.
Looking at the recent polling, it’s possible he finishes 4th in Iowa and 3rd in NH—you think he survives that, especially given his mediocre fundraising?

If Biden wins SC and remains the highest polling candidate for Black voters, I think he'll at least stay through Super Tuesday. If he does that, I'm not sure how Bloomberg, with his stop-and-frisk liability, gets an Obama endorsement or otherwise becomes the fall back candidate for Black voters. I think most Blacks would sooner get behind Sanders than Bloomberg, and if that's true, it's darn near impossible for Bloomberg to defeat either Biden or Sanders for the nomination.

[Teenwolf]

I'll assure you again. There is no way Bloomberg will run 3rd party against Trump and the Democratic nominee, even if it's Sanders, and he WILL offer a tremendous amount of financial support to defeat Trump, even if Sanders is the nominee. Will Sanders be too "pure" to accept that financial help, though? And if Sanders rejects it, will Bloomberg still spend huge sums on anti-Trump ads?

Yeah, that's an interesting scenario. I'm pretty sure Sanders would reject any affiliation with Bloomberg. I think the association would hurt Sanders more than the cash would help, but it's definitely a calculus worth considering, depending on the sum of money on offer. But at the end of the day, I already question Stacy Abrams based on her acceptance of cash for a photo op with Bloomberg, I don't see Bernie making the same tradeoff on a much larger scale. No way.

I think Sanders rejection of Bloomberg's support would provide him an opening to run 3rd party, especially if he were to have a strong run in the primary and finish 2nd or 3rd in the delegate count... but your certainty he wouldn't do these things is slightly reassuring.

If Sanders did win, and Bloomberg did run 3rd party, would you agree to adopting an avatar of a cartoon Bloomberg as the devil smoking a cigar and smiling next to Trump in Trump's gold room while 2 strippers piss on an American flag? I'm just spitballing. Do you believe in Bloomberg's selflessness enough to make that bet? Seems like a very narrow chance of those things happening. I just can't trust Bloomberg's intentions.

[B-Fly]

Yeah, that's an interesting scenario. I'm pretty sure Sanders would reject any affiliation with Bloomberg. I think the association would hurt Sanders more than the cash would help, but it's definitely a calculus worth considering, depending on the sum of money on offer. But at the end of the day, I already question Stacy Abrams based on her acceptance of cash for a photo op with Bloomberg, I don't see Bernie making the same tradeoff on a much larger scale. No way.

I think Sanders rejection of Bloomberg's support would provide him an opening to run 3rd party, especially if he were to have a strong run in the primary and finish 2nd or 3rd in the delegate count... but your certainty he wouldn't do these things is slightly reassuring.

If Sanders did win, and Bloomberg did run 3rd party, would you agree to adopting an avatar of a cartoon Bloomberg as the devil smoking a cigar and smiling next to Trump in Trump's gold room while 2 strippers piss on an American flag? I'm just spitballing. Do you believe in Bloomberg's selflessness enough to make that bet? Seems like a very narrow chance of those things happening. I just can't trust Bloomberg's intentions.

LOL. I've never believed in avatar bets and I'm not starting now. But here's my reasoning: Bloomberg can be clueless in his privilege, egotistical in his self-regard, and insufferable in his elitist paternalism, BUT, he has never to my knowledge made a major pledge or promise that he doesn't keep, to the extent that keeping it is within his control. He has pledged to support the Democratic nominee, whomever it might be. And he clearly and deeply loathes Trump and wouldn't be able to live with being credibly accused of helping Trump win re-election, which running 3rd party would absolutely open him up to.

[B-Fly]

Yeah, that's an interesting scenario. I'm pretty sure Sanders would reject any affiliation with Bloomberg. I think the association would hurt Sanders more than the cash would help, but it's definitely a calculus worth considering, depending on the sum of money on offer.

Of course, given Citizen's United, Sanders would be in no position to stop Bloomberg from spending vast sums of his own money to defeat Trump, which would allow Sanders to still say that he hasn't accepted money from Bloomberg, while allowing Sanders to still benefit from Bloomberg's anti-Trump largesse. That's my hope and expectation for Bloomberg should Sanders be the nominee.

[Teenwolf]

Iowa and the caucus process there make it a very unpredictable outcome.

For example, even though Biden is polling 3rd or 4th in some places, he should be viable in most polling stations, and with Klobuchar surging to around 8-10%, where her voters go will be a big deciding factor. Biden is already discussing a pact with Klobuchar that either would direct their voters to support the other in districts which they fall below viability (although voters make the decision where to go, they won't necessarily listen to Biden or Klobuchar directives). Also, Buttigieg has slid in both Iowa and NH, and so in districts where Pete isn't viable, lots of his voters could go to Biden.

On the flip side, Warren has slid, yet the people stuck with her have developed a much more negative perception of Sanders since she attempted to backstab him, but instead slipped on her own bullshit and fell on the knife. Anyway, her voters won't necessarily support Sanders despite ideological similarities. Yang and Tulsi voters will largely go to Sanders, but that's a smaller group to draw from than any of the others, so he still needs to grow the electorate and outperform even the polls he's leading in.

I think narrative is everything, so it's high pressure for Sanders to win and win big, now that polling shows him up. If Biden wins Iowa, that could be game over for Sanders. Apparently there's a big poll dropping Saturday that will receive a ton of media attention, so that will be key.

In '08, Obama trailed in endorsements heading into Iowa, and he trailed Clinton bigtime in SC. It was only after Obama showed that he could win did the tide turn for him. Sanders has the highest favorability in the field, but lower perceived ability to beat Trump. He's made gains there, but needs an Iowa win and NH blowout to get the establishment to buy in. Otherwise it will be a bloodbath to the nomination.

[B-Fly]

In '08, Obama trailed in endorsements heading into Iowa, and he trailed Clinton bigtime in SC. It was only after Obama showed that he could win did the tide turn for him. Sanders has the highest favorability in the field, but lower perceived ability to beat Trump. He's made gains there, but needs an Iowa win and NH blowout to get the establishment to buy in. Otherwise it will be a bloodbath to the nomination.

That was such a unique situation, though, given that by winning overwhelmingly white Iowa with Clinton finishing third (behind Edwards), and essentially tying Clinton in overwhelmingly white New Hampshire, Obama proved his viability to both Black voters and establishment Democratic voters as a Black man who could appeal to white voters like no Black man ever had before in American politics, so Black voters swung heavily from Clinton to Obama. Sanders, last I checked, is not Black. Black voters may get on the Sanders bandwagon, but it would be naïve and presumptuous to think there is any possibility they will do so with the level of excitement and devotion they committed to Obama.

[Teenwolf]

That was such a unique situation, though, given that by winning overwhelmingly white Iowa with Clinton finishing third (behind Edwards), and essentially tying Clinton in overwhelmingly white New Hampshire, Obama proved his viability to both Black voters and establishment Democratic voters as a Black man who could appeal to white voters like no Black man ever had before in American politics, so Black voters swung heavily from Clinton to Obama. Sanders, last I checked, is not Black. Black voters may get on the Sanders bandwagon, but it would be naïve and presumptuous to think there is any possibility they will do so with the level of excitement and devotion they committed to Obama.

Fair enough. From what I have heard, old black voters are seeking someone to beat Trump more than other demographics. So it seems like they're pretty flippable based on riding the momentum of early state wins. Also, if Sanders wins Iowa and NH, Nevada is inevitable as well. Sanders has the most support among all voters of colour because of his advantage in the Latino community. That, plus early wins, could lead Sanders to sweep the first 3 states. If Biden finishes anything below 2nd/2nd/2nd under a Sanders early-sweep, his electability argument would be toast, and Sanders could close the gap to nearly win or win outright in SC. I'm seeing panic signs from Biden that make this seem quite possible. But obviously I'm not counting on anything yet.

Sanders organizers have stopped reaching out to undecided voters in Iowa, after they surpassed their 5 million phone call goal with over 7 million almost a week ago, and knocked all the doors they had planned to before caucus day. Instead they are focusing on turning out those who have committed. It's kind of crazy. Even AOC is drawing triple the crowds of Buttigieg or Biden right now as a surrogate. All good signs. Betting markets have Sanders in the lead for the party nomination as of a few days ago.

[nots]

https://newrepublic.com/article/156341/tom-perez-stacks-dnc-deck-progressives

And so it begins.......