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I disagree with the conclusion of the article.
Here's the relevant section near the end:
The implications from the article don't make any sense. Mayo Pete is around 8% nationally. So even if his largest 2nd choice voters are by far going to Warren, she's still trailing Bernie's 19% of the national vote with 15% herself, and Bernie has a much bigger slice of potential voters to take from Biden than Warren does from Pete, about 3 times as many, in fact. Plus Bernie has huge advantages over Warren in fundraising, diversity of support, early state polling, etc. Also, with the delegate threshold being 15%, Warren is at a higher risk of collecting some zeroes wherever she falls below 15%. It's slightly less of a risk for Bernie, especially after his expected early momentum. All that is to say, I have almost zero fear of Warren overtaking Sanders. That's pure concern-trolling from Politico.
I've come around in the last month or so to believing that Warren needs to be relatively strong early on, stay in through Super Tuesday, and collect at least 10-15% of the total delegates for Bernie to win. That's because he needs to either collect 50%=1 delegate to win, or find a runner-up candidate with enough delegates to form a unity ticket that accomplishes the same. So I believe with so many candidates splitting the vote, nobody is likely to get more than 35-40% of the delegates on the first ballot. So a strong Warren showing may be the only way Sanders gets into the White House.
Does that seem like a narrow view of the race? Perhaps. But I heard this thought backed up by Ryan Grim recently, and he's a super smart guy, so it seems like a sensible bet.
Here's the relevant section near the end:
And while bagging on Mayor Pete for those impulses might feel good to the left, it ultimately could be self-defeating. To the dismay of non-ideological wonks and activists alike, most voters are firmly non-ideological. For this reason, despite his skepticism toward programs like “Medicare for All” and universal free college, Buttigieg is not in direct competition with Sanders. He’s competing for voters with Warren, whose wine-track liberal supporters are more vulnerable to his technocratic affect.
If influencers on the left successfully discredit and weaken Buttigieg, the most likely outcome is then to bolster Warren, Sanders’ nearest competitor. Biden, meanwhile, continues to sit comfortably atop the polls, even as most of his voters say their second choice would be ... Bernie Sanders.
If influencers on the left successfully discredit and weaken Buttigieg, the most likely outcome is then to bolster Warren, Sanders’ nearest competitor. Biden, meanwhile, continues to sit comfortably atop the polls, even as most of his voters say their second choice would be ... Bernie Sanders.
I've come around in the last month or so to believing that Warren needs to be relatively strong early on, stay in through Super Tuesday, and collect at least 10-15% of the total delegates for Bernie to win. That's because he needs to either collect 50%=1 delegate to win, or find a runner-up candidate with enough delegates to form a unity ticket that accomplishes the same. So I believe with so many candidates splitting the vote, nobody is likely to get more than 35-40% of the delegates on the first ballot. So a strong Warren showing may be the only way Sanders gets into the White House.
Does that seem like a narrow view of the race? Perhaps. But I heard this thought backed up by Ryan Grim recently, and he's a super smart guy, so it seems like a sensible bet.
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