Election 2020

[Sour Masher]

CNN had a one-hour show tonight on "The Democratic Primary Draw." It's a shame Jim Nantz wasn't available.

After Elizabeth Warren got stuck with all the misfit toys last time, a new plan emerged.

first, the bottom 10 - five to each debate - were drawn out of a box. very similar to how Golf Channel does the WGC Match Play Championship draw each year. then came the middle six candidates - three each night.

then the Big 4 - two each night.

the results - drumroll please....

Tuesday, aka White Night
Bernie and Warren
Mayor Pete
Beto
Klobuchar
Delaney
Hickenlooper
Ryan
Bullock
Williamson

Wednesday
Biden and Harris - the Thrilla in Manila!
Booker
Castro
Yang
Gillibrand
Gabbard
Bennet
Inslee
de Blasio

this is a "single elimination format" for at least half of this crew. they're going to smaller brackets in September, so good time to upset some favorites to show your worth.

I love the top pairings. Bernie and Warren get to duke it out for claim to the progressive side of things. While Harris seems to be staking a claim farther left than Biden, they are still closer than the other two, and get to battle again. This is make or break for Biden as the clear front-runner, I think. If he gets knocked down again by Harris without having a counter, I think he is in trouble.

[frae]

Collins got some bad news when Morning Consult quarterly approval polls came out this week...

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/mitch-mcconnell-is-the-only-senator-more-unpopular-than-susan-collins/

"A month and a half ago, the pollster Critical Insights released a poll that said Republican Sen. Susan Collins’s approval rating had dropped to 41 percent and her disapproval rating had risen to 42 percent. But it was just one poll, and others found that she still enjoyed strong support.

However, Morning Consult’s quarterly poll of senators’ approval ratings, released on Wednesday night, agrees that Collins’s popularity is underwater. Only 45 percent of Mainers said they approved of her compared with 48 percent who said they disapproved, and only one senator (Majority Leader Mitch McConnell) has a higher disapproval rating than Collins now does."

This and Colorado are the must-win states to get the math going in the Democrats favor for 2020. Win these two and now you have some other ways to make it happen.

[onejayhawk]

Don't worry about it. Neither state is a tipping point. Pay attention to Pennsylvania and Michigan.

J

[frae]

Don't worry about it. Neither state is a tipping point. Pay attention to Pennsylvania and Michigan.

J

Dude the Senate not the WH. Maine and Colorado are must win states in the senate if the democrats want a chance at the majority.

And yes they will win both states in the presidential. WI is probably the most likely tipping point state for a democratic win. Pa and MI have leaned blue for a long time and have a much likelier chance of flipping back. Pa and mi are good tip point states for R’s.

Some electoral insanity could happen if the democrats do win pa and mi. The one Nebraska district listed as toss up could get us a 269-269 tie.

Anyway the tip state list is probably something like this

Pa
Mi
Wi
Fl
Az
Nc
NE-2
Ia
Nh
Nv

Maybe I’m missing some but these stand out

[Teenwolf]

Kamala Harris had 2 major weaknesses in the first debate. Her answer on health care, and subsequent flip-flop, saying she thought the question referred to her personal coverage... yeah, that flip-flopping looks weak. Secondly, her answer that Russia is the biggest threat to the US was troubling. Russiagate is a clear loser in 2020, and would whip Trump voters into a frenzy.

She had a major appearance this week on The Breakfast Club, where Charlamagne Tha God has endorsed her. What does she bring up in the interview? She says Russian bots are attacking her, and further claims Russian bots were behind the Colin Kaepernick uproar over kneeling. Ugh. Enough with the Russians, if you think they're the biggest threat, make election security a major campaign issue and propose solutions. She seems to be echoing all of the Hillary donors that are likely whining about Russia to her as they max donate. So I guess she's representing the concerns of her donors, but it seems like a horrible general election strategy.

[onejayhawk]

Dude the Senate not the WH. Maine and Colorado are must win states in the senate if the democrats want a chance at the majority.

And yes they will win both states in the presidential. WI is probably the most likely tipping point state for a democratic win. Pa and MI have leaned blue for a long time and have a much likelier chance of flipping back. Pa and mi are good tip point states for R’s.

Some electoral insanity could happen if the democrats do win pa and mi. The one Nebraska district listed as toss up could get us a 269-269 tie.

Anyway the tip state list is probably something like this

Pa
Mi
Wi
Fl
Az
Nc
NE-2
Ia
Nh
Nv

Maybe I’m missing some but these stand out

My bad. I was talking indeed WH.

The Senate is indeed a different fish. With Alabama basically evaporating, the base demoralized, the top of the ticket looking lackluster, the Senate is and should be a real concern for Democrats. Given a close Presidential election, the Democrats could lose ground in what would normally be an opportunity election. All of that said, you should still pay attention to Michigan, plus Minnesota, Virginia and open seat New Mexico. If Trump wins big, they could all go.

Collins might be vulnerable in ordinary terms, but a woman and a moderate are hard to attack. Gardner is definitely more vulnerable. I will differ with most on McSally in Arizona. I think she's in easily.

The tip state is generally a large, closely divided state. Hence MI and PA. Florida is already pink. NC is pinker. Try 270towin and look for close states with at least 12 EC.

[frae]

270 has Az as a tossup. If the democrats really think they can’t win Wisconsin I’m all for a message that works in az. I am in pa and I think it goes blue. I also would bet on Mi. So for me it is Wi az or fl. Remember fl passed a law giving voting rights back to a lot of non-violent criminals which could make fla even closer.

As for the Senate if Republicans nominate Roy Moore again in Bama I would not write that off and even as is everyone has it as a tossup. Jones has not been bad. My most likely way to win seems to be Bama, CO, AZ, and ME. Flip those three and hold Bama while winning the WH. It isn't what I would call likely but an article or tweet I linked earlier if the Dems win the WH they probably do become slight favorites to win the Sen. You and I are going to drastically disagree on the parties chances at the WH, I see it as a tossup right now. So that case would get it to 50-50 with the Dems in the WH thus controlling the Senate.

[Teenwolf]

I wish I knew how to embed tweets, but I'll just transcribe from political reporter Dave Weigel for now.

"Another interesting result from the CNN/UNH poll: the shift among which candidates voters would NEVER vote for. Since February, the percentage of Democrats who would not support Warren fell by nearly half; the number who would not support Biden nearly quadrupled."

Biden went from 3% up to 14%, Bernie went from 8% down to 6%.

[onejayhawk]

270 has Az as a tossup. If the democrats really think they can’t win Wisconsin I’m all for a message that works in az. I am in pa and I think it goes blue. I also would bet on Mi. So for me it is Wi az or fl. Remember fl passed a law giving voting rights back to a lot of non-violent criminals which could make fla even closer.

As for the Senate if Republicans nominate Roy Moore again in Bama I would not write that off and even as is everyone has it as a tossup. Jones has not been bad. My most likely way to win seems to be Bama, CO, AZ, and ME. Flip those three and hold Bama while winning the WH. It isn't what I would call likely but an article or tweet I linked earlier if the Dems win the WH they probably do become slight favorites to win the Sen. You and I are going to drastically disagree on the parties chances at the WH, I see it as a tossup right now. So that case would get it to 50-50 with the Dems in the WH thus controlling the Senate.

Are you calling the Presidential election at 50/50? If that is the case it is still a tall order to preserve a fluke in Alabama and defeat three incumbents. One can compare Doug Jones with Scott Brown in Massachusetts. It didn't last for Brown and it very likely will not last for Jones. You also have the problem of trying to take out women. A lot of the normal tactics are unavailable or belong to the incumbent.

I wish I knew how to embed tweets, but I'll just transcribe from political reporter Dave Weigel for now.

"Another interesting result from the CNN/UNH poll: the shift among which candidates voters would NEVER vote for. Since February, the percentage of Democrats who would not support Warren fell by nearly half; the number who would not support Biden nearly quadrupled."

Biden went from 3% up to 14%, Bernie went from 8% down to 6%.

Nice catch TW. This sort of trend spotting is what polls are good for this far ahead of decision day.

J

[frae]

Are you calling the Presidential election at 50/50? If that is the case it is still a tall order to preserve a fluke in Alabama and defeat three incumbents. One can compare Doug Jones with Scott Brown in Massachusetts. It didn't last for Brown and it very likely will not last for Jones. You also have the problem of trying to take out women. A lot of the normal tactics are unavailable or belong to the incumbent.


Nice catch TW. This sort of trend spotting is what polls are good for this far ahead of decision day.

J

My idea would be the democrats winning the wh is 50/50 and if they don’t win the wh I don’t expect them to win the senate but if they win the wh I expect them to win in ME and CO. I think winning AZ becomes more likely then and MCSally already lost once and the Dems have a good candidate in Kelly. So then it’s hold Bama (Roy Moore again?) or win in NC or IA which if the Dems win the pres race becomes more realistic.

[Kevin Seitzer]

I wish I knew how to embed tweets, but I'll just transcribe from political reporter Dave Weigel for now.

"Another interesting result from the CNN/UNH poll: the shift among which candidates voters would NEVER vote for. Since February, the percentage of Democrats who would not support Warren fell by nearly half; the number who would not support Biden nearly quadrupled."

Biden went from 3% up to 14%, Bernie went from 8% down to 6%.

To embed tweets you do this (without the added spaces):

[ tweet ] https://twitter.com/MLB/status/1153355344850116609 [ /tweet ]

[Kevin Seitzer]

If you want to see what somebody did, you can always "reply with quote" to their post and see the tags they used.

[revo]

No discussion of Bernie's minimum wage mini-fiasco?

As the chief proponent of $15 minimum wage among the Dem field, the Washington Post broke the news the other day that many of Bernie's low-wage salaried staffers are actually earning $13/hour because they're working 60+ hours a week. But instead of raising their salary, he's simply curtailing their hours and hopes to fill in the gap by using unpaid volunteers -- one of the exact things that anti-$15 wage proponents said would happen. Things that make you go hmmmm.

His staffers actually unionized earlier this year and this became a union issue. Furthermore, the workers in question are salaried (the vast majority are paid $36k/year) and not paid by the hour, and salaried workers historically don't receive OT. But earlier this year, Trump changed labor rules to allow salaried workers to receive OT -- but the threshold is $35k, a not-so-coincidental smidge under a Bernie staffer annual salary. Things that make you go hmmmm, pt II.

Want some bacon to go with that egg on your face, Bernie? ::

[Teenwolf]

No discussion of Bernie's minimum wage mini-fiasco?

As the chief proponent of $15 minimum wage among the Dem field, the Washington Post broke the news the other day that many of Bernie's low-wage salaried staffers are actually earning $13/hour because they're working 60+ hours a week. But instead of raising their salary, he's simply curtailing their hours and hopes to fill in the gap by using unpaid volunteers -- one of the exact things that anti-$15 wage proponents said would happen. Things that make you go hmmmm.

His staffers actually unionized earlier this year and this became a union issue. Furthermore, the workers in question are salaried (the vast majority are paid $36k/year) and not paid by the hour, and salaried workers historically don't receive OT. But earlier this year, Trump changed labor rules to allow salaried workers to receive OT -- but the threshold is $35k, a not-so-coincidental smidge under a Bernie staffer annual salary. Things that make you go hmmmm, pt II.

Want some bacon to go with that egg on your face, Bernie? ::

Typical overblown bullshit Bernie smear.

These are 20-somethings with temporary campaign staff positions. These jobs are naturally stepping stone positions, and should be tackled with overtime in mind as a way of getting ahead of the pack, making more valuable connections along the way. Folks whining that they're putting in more than 40 hours per week on salary? Talk to a fucking teacher. If someone believes their profession is worth putting in overtime while knowing they're only making their same salary either way, that's their prerogative to put in the unpaid overtime.

Damn millenial whiners.

[onejayhawk]

No discussion of Bernie's minimum wage mini-fiasco?

As the chief proponent of $15 minimum wage among the Dem field, the Washington Post broke the news the other day that many of Bernie's low-wage salaried staffers are actually earning $13/hour because they're working 60+ hours a week. But instead of raising their salary, he's simply curtailing their hours and hopes to fill in the gap by using unpaid volunteers -- one of the exact things that anti-$15 wage proponents said would happen. Things that make you go hmmmm.

His staffers actually unionized earlier this year and this became a union issue. Furthermore, the workers in question are salaried (the vast majority are paid $36k/year) and not paid by the hour, and salaried workers historically don't receive OT. But earlier this year, Trump changed labor rules to allow salaried workers to receive OT -- but the threshold is $35k, a not-so-coincidental smidge under a Bernie staffer annual salary. Things that make you go hmmmm, pt II.

Want some bacon to go with that egg on your face, Bernie?

Just to show it happens, I agree with all of this, except the emoji.

You could also mention that there was no healthcare provided for everyone.

J