Election 2020

[frae]

The top 5 have all reported their q2 money totals...

1. Buttigieg $24.8M
2. Biden $21.5M
3. Warren $19.1M
4. Sanders $18M
5. Harris $12M

Harris should get a boost in q3, but this race won't be a runaway on money alone with all 5 getting plenty to stay relevant.

[Sour Masher]

The top 5 have all reported their q2 money totals...

1. Buttigieg $24.8M
2. Biden $21.5M
3. Warren $19.1M
4. Sanders $18M
5. Harris $12M

Harris should get a boost in q3, but this race won't be a runaway on money alone with all 5 getting plenty to stay relevant.

Wow, I did not know Buttigieg was so well funded. I'm surprised he managed to top everyone, including Biden. What is up with that? Where are the funds coming from?

[frae]

Wow, I did not know Buttigieg was so well funded. I'm surprised he managed to top everyone, including Biden. What is up with that? Where are the funds coming from?

This article explains it better than me...

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/01/us/politics/pete-buttigieg-fundraising.html

[revo]

Latest polls show Biden has bounced right back, while Trump is clawing back a bit against the second tier candidates:

2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination	Emerson	Biden 30, Harris 15, Sanders 15, Warren 15, Buttigieg 5, O'Rourke 4, Booker 2, Yang 3, Gabbard 2, Castro 0, Klobuchar 1, Bullock 1, Bennet 1, Inslee 1	[B]Biden +15[/B]

2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination	Politico/Morning Consult	Biden 31, Harris 14, Sanders 19, Warren 13, Buttigieg 6, O'Rourke 3, Booker 2, Yang 1, Gabbard 1, Castro 1, Klobuchar 1, Bullock 1, Bennet 0, Inslee 0	[B]Biden +12[/B]

General Election: Trump vs. Biden	Emerson	Biden 53, Trump 47	[B]Biden +6[/B]
General Election: Trump vs. Harris	Emerson	Harris 49, Trump 51	Trump +2
General Election: Trump vs. Sanders	Emerson	Sanders 51, Trump 49	[B]Sanders +2[/B]
General Election: Trump vs. Warren	Emerson	Warren 49, Trump 51	Trump +2
General Election: Trump vs. Buttigieg	Emerson	Buttigieg 49, Trump 51	Trump +2

[Teenwolf]

The top 5 have all reported their q2 money totals...

1. Buttigieg $24.8M 294K contributions
2. Biden $21.5M 256K contributions
3. Warren $19.1M 384K contributions
4. Sanders $18M 1 Million contributions
5. Harris $12M 279K contributions

Harris should get a boost in q3, but this race won't be a runaway on money alone with all 5 getting plenty to stay relevant.

Added one relevant data point being overlooked by most mainstream media. Sanders is doing way better than the media is portraying, at least with the grassroots organizational aspect.

Another data point to consider, much of the money going these top 5 are inflated by max donors. All of Mayor Pete's $2800 per plate fundraisers will dry up quickly. Same with Biden. Max donors can only contribute once. 99% of Sanders' donors can contribute multiple times. Given his ability to energize his base, I bet he has a way higher recurring donor income than the others, which can fund him all the way to the end. The others relying on max donors need to keep dialing for dollars and hustling and greasing palms. Bernie gets to hold rally after rally and get his message out. I'm optimistic for these reasons.

[GwynnInTheHall]

Added one relevant data point being overlooked by most mainstream media. Sanders is doing way better than the media is portraying, at least with the grassroots organizational aspect.

Another data point to consider, much of the money going these top 5 are inflated by max donors. All of Mayor Pete's $2800 per plate fundraisers will dry up quickly. Same with Biden. Max donors can only contribute once. 99% of Sanders' donors can contribute multiple times. Given his ability to energize his base, I bet he has a way higher recurring donor income than the others, which can fund him all the way to the end. The others relying on max donors need to keep dialing for dollars and hustling and greasing palms. Bernie gets to hold rally after rally and get his message out. I'm optimistic for these reasons.

As the biggest bernie honk on the site, he really needs to show better next debate or he'll be looking in from the outside as Harris, Warren or Gabbard take the lead.

[Teenwolf]

As the biggest bernie honk on the site, he really needs to show better next debate or he'll be looking in from the outside as Harris, Warren or Gabbard take the lead.

11 more debates to go. I worry that he won't have the killer instinct that Harris had, since nobody seems to give a shit about policy, they just want spectacle. So if Bernie needs to take someone apart, he'll be called a sexist or whatever... I think once the others have been bloodied, then he can make it personal, and especially once the size of the debates winnows down, it will be easier to focus on message and policy rather than theater.

Harris had her attack on Biden scripted, with "I'm that girl" shirts printed ahead of the debate. So she's done well at the theater/entertainment aspect so far, but every candidate will be trying this tactic now. If Bernie needs a punching bag to show dummy voters that he's a fighter, he should pick someone like Tom Steyer if he makes the next debates.

[umjewman]

11 more debates to go. I worry that he won't have the killer instinct that Harris had, since nobody seems to give a shit about policy, they just want spectacle. So if Bernie needs to take someone apart, he'll be called a sexist or whatever... I think once the others have been bloodied, then he can make it personal, and especially once the size of the debates winnows down, it will be easier to focus on message and policy rather than theater.

Harris had her attack on Biden scripted, with "I'm that girl" shirts printed ahead of the debate. So she's done well at the theater/entertainment aspect so far, but every candidate will be trying this tactic now. If Bernie needs a punching bag to show dummy voters that he's a fighter, he should pick someone like Tom Steyer if he makes the next debates.

Of course it is a spectacle. That's what Trump, as much as a turd as he is, understood better than everyone from day one. Especially with 20 people out there, policy is not going to win the day...at least at the beginning. The good news for Bernie is he has enough support to get down to where policy actually matters - when there are like 5 left standing.

[Teenwolf]

Of course it is a spectacle. That's what Trump, as much as a turd as he is, understood better than everyone from day one. Especially with 20 people out there, policy is not going to win the day...at least at the beginning. The good news for Bernie is he has enough support to get down to where policy actually matters - when there are like 5 left standing.

Agree completely, especially when most of the field have already attempted to steal Sanders' platform, it will take time for folks to see the details.

[frae]

I am glad to see the Democrats got a good candidate to run against Mitch in KY. Sure the state lean of R+30 means McGrath is unlikely to win, but I want to start seeing the Democrats run good candidates in red state races. She raised over $2.5 million in 24 hours and if nothing else she will make Mitch campaign some. His approval in KY is only 33% from a PPP poll from Feb. So yeah it is still unlikely especially in a Presidential election year, but McGrath has a good story and since she didn't get elected to the Lexington Cong. district in 2018 she has all the time in the world to just campaign.

in other good news in my mind, the Democrats got a very credible candidate to run in Main. Sara Gideon the Democratic speaker of the house in Maine announced she would challenge Susan Collins. Gideon has some statewide recognition and also a pretty good roll out to her campaign. She has raised over $1 million dollars in a week and presumably would have access to the $4 million plus that the fund Susan Collins opponent page has raised if Gideon is the nominee.

Anyway, KY is a pipe dream probably, but Gideon is a good get in a state that is something like D+9 and almost a must have if the Democrats want control of the Senate.

[Judge Jude]

Fox News is already running a new McConnell ad of McGrath having said, "I am further left, I am more progressive than anybody in the state of Kentucky."

he IS unpopular, but I have a feeling that comment gets written on her political tombstone.

[frae]

Fox News is already running a new McConnell ad of McGrath having said, "I am further left, I am more progressive than anybody in the state of Kentucky."

he IS unpopular, but I have a feeling that comment gets written on her political tombstone.

She can't win unless something really gets dug up on him. R+30 is tough I think her congressional district was R+15 and she lost by what 1-2 points? I just think it is nice to see a decent candidate up. Mitch got a layup in 2014 but only won by 6 points in 2008. I find it highly unlikely the state gives up having the Senate leader, but my point is I want to stop giving layups to people in red states.

[Sour Masher]

She can't win unless something really gets dug up on him. R+30 is tough I think her congressional district was R+15 and she lost by what 1-2 points? I just think it is nice to see a decent candidate up. Mitch got a layup in 2014 but only won by 6 points in 2008. I find it highly unlikely the state gives up having the Senate leader, but my point is I want to stop giving layups to people in red states.

Yeah, it may be hard for those outside the state to believe, because he is such an evil turtle man, but McConnell has very solid foundation of support in Kentucky. My last job was at UofL and I had to be reminded of that fact every day I saw the McConnell Center. I doubt he will ever be seriously challenged on the left in Kentucky. The only time I can recall he ever faced a real challenge was with the Tea Party. Rand Paul represented a new type of candidate and he had to adapt to being called out on the right. But he did and survived. Unfortunately, he isn't going anywhere, even if something is dug up on him. Despite Kentucky occasionally electing a blue dog Democrat as governor, I can't fathom McConnell ever being seriously challenged by the left in that state.

[nots]

Yeah, it may be hard for those outside the state to believe, because he is such an evil turtle man, but McConnell has very solid foundation of support in Kentucky. My last job was at UofL and I had to be reminded of that fact every day I saw the McConnell Center. I doubt he will ever be seriously challenged on the left in Kentucky. The only time I can recall he ever faced a real challenge was with the Tea Party. Rand Paul represented a new type of candidate and he had to adapt to being called out on the right. But he did and survived. Unfortunately, he isn't going anywhere, even if something is dug up on him. Despite Kentucky occasionally electing a blue dog Democrat as governor, I can't fathom McConnell ever being seriously challenged by the left in that state.

Didn’t realize you lived in Louisville. I used to live just outside Lexington and my parents have just moved away from Harrodsburg. Small world.

[Sour Masher]

Didn’t realize you lived in Louisville. I used to live just outside Lexington and my parents have just moved away from Harrodsburg. Small world.

Yeah, I lived there for five years. I liked it. Housing was cheap, taxes were low. Weather was temperate.