Election 2020

[Sour Masher]

And Dopey chimes in: "A total loser." LOL.

Of course he would. I admire the move. It takes political courage. I don't know enough about his district to know if he can survive without the support of the GOP there, but I hope so.

[nots]

Amash has officially left the GOP. Will he run in 2020 as an independent? Would he take any libertarian votes from Trump? Would be great if so.

I would guess he has a pretty good chance to be the Libertarian nominee (quite sure it ain’t gonna be Gary Johnson again, lol). I haven’t heard much from the Libertarian camp on who might give it a go in 2020. Might reach out to a couple of old friends and see what they think.

[Teenwolf]

Bernie Sanders has done slightly better than I anticipated following the debates. Although the media is largely pushing the narrative that Sanders has slipped in polling, some great indicators there have me optimistic.

Bernie's fundraising numbers are incredible. Just shy of 1 million individual contributors in Q2, with nearly 4x Biden's individual donors, and even 250K more contributors than Trump. The headlines always focus on the amount of money, but Bernie's constituency is bigger and stronger. Polling often tracks which companies' employees are the biggest group of contributors, and for Sanders in Q2, its Walmart workers. Not the CEO's, like Elizabeth Warren fundraising with the head of CitiGroup, but the actual minimum wage workers, who he showed up to their union meeting to fight on their behalf for higher wages. So that factoid made me smile.

In polling, some very good highlights. Morning Consult, Reuters/IPSOS, and WashPo all show Sanders in 2nd, the first 2 only 6 pts back of Biden. Morning Consult shows Sanders with the highest favorability rating. With Biden quickly dropping off, Sanders now has the highest margin vs. Trump across the country. There were some Iowa polls showing a Bernie drop, but i believe even those were within the margin of error.

Although I felt Sanders seriously underperformed in the first debate, it appears his ground game and network of volunteers are building more support than anyone realized.

[umjewman]

Bernie Sanders has done slightly better than I anticipated following the debates. Although the media is largely pushing the narrative that Sanders has slipped in polling, some great indicators there have me optimistic.

Bernie's fundraising numbers are incredible. Just shy of 1 million individual contributors in Q2, with nearly 4x Biden's individual donors, and even 250K more contributors than Trump. The headlines always focus on the amount of money, but Bernie's constituency is bigger and stronger. Polling often tracks which companies' employees are the biggest group of contributors, and for Sanders in Q2, its Walmart workers. Not the CEO's, like Elizabeth Warren fundraising with the head of CitiGroup, but the actual minimum wage workers, who he showed up to their union meeting to fight on their behalf for higher wages. So that factoid made me smile.

In polling, some very good highlights. Morning Consult, Reuters/IPSOS, and WashPo all show Sanders in 2nd, the first 2 only 6 pts back of Biden. Morning Consult shows Sanders with the highest favorability rating. With Biden quickly dropping off, Sanders now has the highest margin vs. Trump across the country. There were some Iowa polls showing a Bernie drop, but i believe even those were within the margin of error.

Although I felt Sanders seriously underperformed in the first debate, it appears his ground game and network of volunteers are building more support than anyone realized.

Bernie obviously has a built in support system from last time. And we have all seen how passionate his base is. The question will ultimately be where Biden's supporters go, since I agree with you that he will fold eventually.

Really long way to go. Will be very interesting how it all plays out. Outside of Ted Cruz becoming a Democrat and winning the nomination somehow, I'll be voting for the D nominee regardless.

[B-Fly]

The polling is all over the place this week per the polls posted on Tuesday and Wednesday to Real Clear Politics. Biden is still leading all the polls, but he's at anywhere from 22 to 34 percent, and anywhere from +19 to +2 (within the margin of error) over his closest competitor, who depending on the poll is either Sanders, Harris or Warren.

[revo]

Let's assume for the moment the nominee is Harris or Warren. Since the female aspect is covered, who would make the most sense as a VP prospect? Beto, who had the best showing by a Dem in Texas in years, which is fast becoming a battleground state? Sherrod Brown, who could help turn back Ohio? Andrew Gillum or Stacey Abrams?

[DMT]

Let's assume for the moment the nominee is Harris or Warren. Since the female aspect is covered, who would make the most sense as a VP prospect? Beto, who had the best showing by a Dem in Texas in years, which is fast becoming a battleground state? Sherrod Brown, who could help turn back Ohio? Andrew Gillum or Stacey Abrams?

I'd much rather have Castro if we're taking a Texan. Beto has been exposed.

[revo]

I'd much rather have Castro if we're taking a Texan. Beto has been exposed.

I think Beto makes a comeback, but good point.

[Kevin Seitzer]

I'd much rather have Castro if we're taking a Texan. Beto has been exposed.

I don't think Beto is an idiot, in fact, I think he has a bright future ahead of him, but I also don't think he's ready for the national stage yet.

[GwynnInTheHall]

The polling is all over the place this week per the polls posted on Tuesday and Wednesday to Real Clear Politics. Biden is still leading all the polls, but he's at anywhere from 22 to 34 percent, and anywhere from +19 to +2 (within the margin of error) over his closest competitor, who depending on the poll is either Sanders, Harris or Warren.

Do you believe that Joe chastising the far left is helpful to his campaign?

[GwynnInTheHall]

Let's assume for the moment the nominee is Harris or Warren. Since the female aspect is covered, who would make the most sense as a VP prospect? Beto, who had the best showing by a Dem in Texas in years, which is fast becoming a battleground state? Sherrod Brown, who could help turn back Ohio? Andrew Gillum or Stacey Abrams?

No love for mayor Pete?

[B-Fly]

Do you believe that Joe chastising the far left is helpful to his campaign?

Probably. In a crowded field, he can win by holding the establishment/centrist wing, since no one else has really been able to challenge him there. If Klobuchar or Delaney or someone was really catching on, he'd have to chance tack.

[B-Fly]

I think Mayor Pete would be a solid running mate for Harris. I think Warren would want a running mate of color, since she's an old white egghead type (which I say with the greatest of affection, lol). Harris or Booker if they'd be willing, otherwise Castro or maybe Gillum or Abrams.

[revo]

No love for mayor Pete?

Trump won Indiana by 19% so I don't think even Mayor Pete can help turn the state blue. And it's pretty clear the LGBTQ vote is already safely in Democratic hands, so while he is bright and and up and comer, I don't think he would add much to the ticket in terms of demographic help.

[Kevin Seitzer]

Trump won Indiana by 19% so I don't think even Mayor Pete can help turn the state blue. And it's pretty clear the LGBTQ vote is already safely in Democratic hands, so while he is bright and and up and comer, I don't think he would add much to the ticket in terms of demographic help.

How much does demographic help help?