Economic, taxes, and tariffs discussion

[chancellor]

And yet....GDP growth 2nd quarter 2018 growth was 4.1%.

[Moonlight J]

And yet....GDP growth 2nd quarter 2018 growth was 4.1%.

how much of that do you attribute to companies racing to get stuff out in advance of the pending tariffs?

[chancellor]

how much of that do you attribute to companies racing to get stuff out in advance of the pending tariffs?

Probably half the differential from 1Q, which I think was 2.3%.

I actually agree with most of revo's concepts that the trade battle was not a good path to go down. Just want to emphasize that while there will be some companies that take a hit, the last three quarters have been 2.8, 2.3, and 4.1% growth.

OTOH, on an admittedly sick and twisted note, I do enjoy reminding many of my liberal friends who complain about the tariffs that they're now aligned with Charles Koch. That typically is almost followed by a Scanners-like head explosion.

[revo]

Probably half the differential from 1Q, which I think was 2.3%.

I actually agree with most of revo's concepts that the trade battle was not a good path to go down. Just want to emphasize that while there will be some companies that take a hit, the last three quarters have been 2.8, 2.3, and 4.1% growth.

OTOH, on an admittedly sick and twisted note, I do enjoy reminding many of my liberal friends who complain about the tariffs that they're now aligned with Charles Koch. That typically is almost followed by a Scanners-like head explosion.

As you well know, any tariff-related impact won't be felt on a National economic scale until at least early next year. Plus, the Chinese (and others) are using surgical tariff strikes on Trump Land, so the impact will really be felt on a micro-scale rather than a macro-scale.

Assuming this Trade War with China continues -- and yesterday Alibaba's Jack Ma said he believes it could last 20 years -- it will be interesting to see the dichotomy of a robust national economy with low unemployment to that of failing local economies dependent on a large employer or industry, with high unemployment.

[revo]

Here's a primer for our fiscally-challenged president:


The ABCs of trade for President Trump

"It’s not easy talking trade with Donald Trump.

Readers of Bob Woodward’s “Fear: Trump in the White House” will come away with the same sense of frustration that the president’s “globalist” economic advisers felt when they tried repeatedly to explain to him that a tariff is a tax on American consumers.

“You’re wrong,” is typical of the president’s case-closed response to his aides.

The president would be well advised to pick up a copy of economist Pierre Lemieux’s new book, “What’s Wrong with Protectionism?” (OK, we know Trump doesn’t read and, when it comes to trade, isn’t open to learning, but I needed a good way to introduce the book!)

This concise, 100-page book exposes the common myths about free trade for what they are, using simple, sound arguments to make the case, both economic and moral, that free trade is fair trade, and vice versa.

For starters, countries don’t trade with one another; individuals and businesses do. While the statistical agencies report the balance of trade by country, it is individuals who decide what to export and what to import.

If the voluntary exchange between individuals is a basic tenet of a market economy — allowing each of us to specialize in producing certain items and to buy (”import”) everything else — why is that principle no longer relevant when applied to international commerce? And if the U.S. government slaps a tariff on cheap foreign goods, making them more expensive, how is that fair to consumers?

“How could free trade harm the country if it benefits the individuals who compose it?” Lemieux asks."

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-abcs-of-trade-for-president-trump-2018-09-26

[chancellor]

revo, I'll read the book since it sounds interesting. However, the "For starters" analogy is severely flawed if that's one of his central premises. While countries do not trade with one another, they certainly influence individual and business behavior on how they behave in their decision making on what to export and what to import. Those influential factors are not limited to tariffs, but also include currency manipulation, import/export laws and regulations, and local custom. The impact of these issues will most assuredly influence voluntary exchange, some to the point of preventing it from happening.

[cardboardbox]

revo, in the 7 weeks I've been away, I've come across quite a few articles that were positive about the economy. I'm wondering, do you see those and just dont post them here?

[revo]

revo, in the 7 weeks I've been away, I've come across quite a few articles that were positive about the economy. I'm wondering, do you see those and just dont post them here?

Do they matter when the effects of tariffs won't start to be felt until the winter?

And again, for what seems like the hundredth time, the tariffs implemented by other countries on us were micro, not macro. They're targeting certain regions and industries. They will affect certain regions and industries much harder than what shows up in the national GDP.

[nots]

Do they matter when the effects of tariffs won't start to be felt until the winter?

Yes, they do.

[revo]

Yes, they do.

Then post away.

[cardboardbox]

Do they matter when the effects of tariffs won't start to be felt until the winter?

And again, for what seems like the hundredth time, the tariffs implemented by other countries on us were micro, not macro. They're targeting certain regions and industries. They will affect certain regions and industries much harder than what shows up in the national GDP.

I didnt know this thread was only about tariffs. I mean I've read generally positive news about the economy quite a few times over the past two months. I'm genuinely curious if you have read anything positive or do you only come across sky is falling type news.

[revo]

I didnt know this thread was only about tariffs. I mean I've read generally positive news about the economy quite a few times over the past two months. I'm genuinely curious if you have read anything positive or do you only come across sky is falling type news.

I post about the tariffs because I'm strongly against them -- as well as almost every economist not named Navarro -- and feel Trump has no idea what he's doing. He's doing potentially irreparable harm to some communities and industries. Trump supporters get bleary eyed at how well the economy is doing, and shortly it will be at their own expense.

And yes, you started this thread to discuss the tariffs (see your first post).

[cardboardbox]

I post about the tariffs because I'm strongly against them -- as well as almost every economist not named Navarro -- and feel Trump has no idea what he's doing. He's doing potentially irreparable harm to some communities and industries. Trump supporters get bleary eyed at how well the economy is doing, and shortly it will be at their own expense.

And yes, you started this thread to discuss the tariffs (see your first post).

And I titled it, "Economic, taxes, and tariffs discussion" so I think other economic news can go in here.

ok, so you never read positive news about the economy. I guess that explains why the sky is always falling. I think you'd have to go out of your way to avoid reading any positive economic news...

[revo]

And I titled it, "Economic, taxes, and tariffs discussion" so I think other economic news can go in here.

ok, so you never read positive news about the economy. I guess that explains why the sky is always falling. I think you'd have to go out of your way to avoid reading any positive economic news...

So you can post away about the rosy economy Obama created, and I'll post about the cluelessness of our current president and how he's affecting the very people who voted for him. Deal?

[revo]

Canada agrees to a revamped NAFTA -- the USMCA.