2018 Midterm Election Thread

[onejayhawk]

the next recession will happen in mid 2020, just in time for the election.

If it's that close, there are ways to postpone it a few months.

I have my doubts it will come that quickly. The corporate tax cut will have a lasting impact.

J

[OaklandA's]

The corporate tax cut will have a lasting impact.

True - it looks like trillion dollar annual budget deficits are here to stay. But at least we might be adding an extra $200B in GDP each year!

[frae]

With some races going the Democrats way including Karen Handel conceding to Lucy McBath in GA 6 (the Ossoff race) 538 has moved their live projection to a +37 gain for the Democrats in the house. The range possibility of +35 - +40 comes down to 5 districts.

Live ratings from 538
Toss up

NJ 3- Dems lead this race by over 2600 votes with 99% in

CA 45 - Rep leads by 3 points 100% in again we must be on absentee ballots

ME 2 - Rep leads by 921 votes with 88% in

Lean D

Since these are both lean my guess is the outstanding ballots are all coming from Democrat strongholds.

CA 10 - Reps lead by over 1k with 100% in I assume we are waiting on absentee counting or something.

CA 39 - Rep leads by over 2 points with 100% in so again we must be waiting on something

There are some other races uncalled but 538 has those at SOlid D, Likely D, or Sold R in the live ratings. So applying those to it we would be at a 35 seat gain now with the 5 above tilting it to the final number.

[frae]

This tweet gives some data on how CA races have shifted in the past after the late ballots are counted and that’s why these California races can still move multiple points.

https://twitter.com/ca_120/status/1060314540506664961?s=21

[chancellor]

And it's those states currently getting hammered with tariffs. The likelihood of a recession in 2019 has gone up, and then there goes the advantage of a great economy.

Perhaps. There's a fair amount of insulation built in based on present growth rate and ability slow interest rate increases. Of course, the Chinese may well fold on the trade war, too, which I'm sure many will attribute to some sort of plot to keep Trump in power.

[baldgriff]

Saw this little graphic this morning

Candidate Party Votes Pct.
Martha McSally Republican 856,848 49.4%
Kyrsten Sinema Democrat 839,775 48.4
Angela Green Green 38,978 2.2

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/arizona-senate

Although the Green Party candidate threw her support to Sinema in the last couple weeks, she has still drawn the votes Sinema needs to put her over the top (99% precincts reporting).

That said, there was a huge turnout of early voters - so this race still isnt over.

Personally, I didnt find either of the candidates likeable.


On a side note - David Garcia lost to Ducey by almost 300,000 votes. He stated after he lost that it was just impossible to overcome the negativity adds from Ducey. Interestingly enough, Garcia disappeared from sight over the last 2 weeks of the campaign. He was running as the education guy, but had no clear message on how to "fix" the current system. Also, the local talk radio station had contacted the Garcia camp to have him on a couple times in the last couple weeks and got NO RESPONSE. He never called them back to even set up a time to come in and use free radio time to continue his campaigning.

[nots]

Perhaps. There's a fair amount of insulation built in based on present growth rate and ability slow interest rate increases. Of course, the Chinese may well fold on the trade war, too, which I'm sure many will attribute to some sort of plot to keep Trump in power.

I don’t know if you are kidding or not, but I do think there is a distinct possibility that China winds up looking to make a trade deal instead of escalating this trade war.

[nullnor]

i am so glad feminine hygiene products are now tax free in Nevada.

[nullnor]

i think this kind of shows you the extremity of what it takes for democrats to lower taxes.

[frae]

538 moves Florida from likely R to lean R. The vote in Broward is all out of whack. The votes cast seems to have possibly discounted votes for Nelson. It would be a machine error is what seems likely. With the margin shrinking and already within recount range I am personally inclined to think FL is more likely than AZ at this hour.

https://twitter.com/stevekornacki/status/1060612668988502021?s=21

https://twitter.com/stevekornacki/status/1060615875194245122?s=21

R Rick Scott 50.1% 4,091,417
D Bill Nelson 49.9% 4,074,073

If Broward is really off by a significant amount this race could definitely flip.

[gcstomp]

Florida in play, its always Florida, lol. 1/2 of 1 percent is an auto recount, 1/4 of 1 percent margin is auto hand recount. Broward no way had that many blank votes for senate, something fishy, in what is the primary D stronghold of the state.

[frae]

Florida in play, its always Florida, lol. 1/2 of 1 percent is an auto recount, 1/4 of 1 percent margin is auto hand recount. Broward no way had that many blank votes for senate, something fishy, in what is the primary D stronghold of the state.

Yep we are likely to get a hand recount on the Senate and Gillim is inching closer to triggering the machine recount in the Gov race. If it proves to just be an optical scanner error on thousands and thousands of votes Nelson could still eek this out as that is an easy fix and not one that should cause any reasonable objection. If this gets real close though it will get ugly in FL again.

Found a tweet with the data. Roughly 27k more votes were cast for governor in Broward county than for senator. That’s a lot of ballots to no vote senate.

[chancellor]

538 moves Florida from likely R to lean R. The vote in Broward is all out of whack. The votes cast seems to have possibly discounted votes for Nelson. It would be a machine error is what seems likely.

Of course, my POV is that it's more likely Cook County level corruption going on. As Marco Rubio accurately pointed out, by law in Florida, early voting and vote-by-mail are to be reported 30 minutes after polls closed. Only two counties are...hmmm...pushing two days over, and they're the heavily Democratic counties of Palm Beach and Broward. Nor have they published an scheduled outcome for reporting those votes.

[Bernie Brewer]

Of course, my POV is that it's more likely Cook County level corruption going on. As Marco Rubio accurately pointed out, by law in Florida, early voting and vote-by-mail are to be reported 30 minutes after polls closed. Only two counties are...hmmm...pushing two days over, and they're the heavily Democratic counties of Palm Beach and Broward. Nor have they published an scheduled outcome for reporting those votes.

Hey now, be nice, I live in Cook County!

[chancellor]

Hey now, be nice, I live in Cook County!

Vote early, vote often!