2018 Midterm Election Thread

[revo]

Cue Archie Bell & the Drells, because the Senate race is doing the “Tighten Up!”

New CNN polls have Bredesen with a 5pt lead in Tennessee and Synema with a 4pt lead in Arizona, in addition to leads in Florida, North Dakota, Indiana and Missouri.

I’m also betting on a major O’Rourke upset in Texas, especially after this Cruz mailer debacle.

[nots]

Cue Archie Bell & the Drells, because the Senate race is doing the “Tighten Up!”

New CNN polls have Bredesen with a 5pt lead in Tennessee and Synema with a 4pt lead in Arizona, in addition to leads in Florida, North Dakota, Indiana and Missouri.

I’m also betting on a major O’Rourke upset in Texas, especially after this Cruz mailer debacle.

Sources for Missouri and Florida? Most recent polls on RCP has Hailey up 3 (today) and Scott up 2 (Wed) but maybe they missed a couple

[revo]

Sources for Missouri and Florida? Most recent polls on RCP has Hailey up 3 (today) and Scott up 2 (Wed) but maybe they missed a couple

Five Thirty Eight:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/senate/

[nots]

Five Thirty Eight:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...recast/senate/

I don’t see a poll showing McCaskell winning? What am I missing?

NM—I figured it out. You were referencing polls on the first two but were using 538s forecast model for the second two. Got it now

[revo]

I don’t see a poll showing McCaskell winning? What am I missing?

Five Thirty Eight makes poll adjustments based on their historical analysis of the polling house. Some pollers are partisan, others use polling techniques that skew the poll (landlines, robocalls, tallying registered voters only, etc.)

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/senate/missouri/

They have McCaskill with a 63.2% chance of winning as of tonight.

[nots]

Five Thirty Eight makes poll adjustments based on their historical analysis of the polling house. Some pollers are partisan, others use polling techniques that skew the poll (landlines, robocalls, tallying registered voters only, etc.)

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/senate/missouri/

They have McCaskill with a 63.2% chance of winning as of tonight.

See my edit

[revo]

See my edit

No problem

[B-Fly]

Frickin' polls. Two Trump Approval rating polls both released yesterday:

Gallup: Approve 38, Disapprove 56 (Disapprove +18)
Rasmussen Reports: Approve 49, Disapprove 50 (Disapprove +1)

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

I know Rasmussen has a Republican lean and Gallup sometimes a Democratic lean, but that's ridiculous. At least Five Thirty Eight appears to have a pretty solid methodology for adjusting and combining all the various polls into something that may be more predictive.

[revo]

Frickin' polls. Two Trump Approval rating polls both released yesterday:

Gallup: Approve 38, Disapprove 56 (Disapprove +18)
Rasmussen Reports: Approve 49, Disapprove 50 (Disapprove +1)

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

I know Rasmussen has a Republican lean and Gallup sometimes a Democratic lean, but that's ridiculous. At least Five Thirty Eight appears to have a pretty solid methodology for adjusting and combining all the various polls into something that may be more predictive.

Rasmussen uses automated robocalls to landlines, and only counts likely voters, which means it skews towards more rural white people age 55+ (i.e. Republicans). I don't understand why this methodology is used in approval ratings, and that's why Rasmussen's polls for this are largely undependable. You can hate (or like) the president without being a likely voter -- and certainly without having a landline (of which only 45% of the population still do)!

[chancellor]

Rasmussen uses automated robocalls to landlines, and only counts likely voters, which means it skews towards more rural white people age 55+ (i.e. Republicans). I don't understand why this methodology is used in approval ratings, and that's why Rasmussen's polls for this are largely undependable. You can hate (or like) the president without being a likely voter -- and certainly without having a landline (of which only 45% of the population still do)!

Don't know that I agree with this. Even Nate Silver acknowledges that Rasmussen drilled the 2016 general election essentially nuts-on, and gives their overall results a mid-tier grade.

Moreover, their older skew toward GOP has also changed based on Nate's team analysis; fivethirtyeight shows Rasmussen skewing Democratic by 3.6 points.

Reference: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...trust-in-2018/

[revo]

Don't know that I agree with this. Even Nate Silver acknowledges that Rasmussen drilled the 2016 general election essentially nuts-on, and gives their overall results a mid-tier grade.

Moreover, their older skew toward GOP has also changed based on Nate's team analysis; fivethirtyeight shows Rasmussen skewing Democratic by 3.6 points.

Reference: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...trust-in-2018/

I'm finding it hard to believe that they skew Democrat....this is news to me.

From WaPo in April:
"1. Rasmussen Reports polls are consistently friendlier to Trump (and were more unfavorable to Obama) than most polls.

The pollster uses an unusual pool for its polls, talking only to “likely voters” — a nebulous descriptor for a subset of the population that doesn’t try to approximate the views of all Americans. Often, likely voter pools lean more heavily Republican because, well, Republicans are often more likely to vote. (Even in this year, when Democrats consistently say they’re more motivated to vote, the end result is that Democrats are about as likely to vote as Republicans.) Rasmussen calls only landline phones, supplementing that pool with an online survey. It’s an unorthodox methodology that has produced mixed results.

But those results have a consistent pattern. From the day of each president’s inauguration through April 14 of his second year in office, Rasmussen released hundreds of poll results assessing Obama and Trump’s national approval.

In 93.7 percent of the polls taken from Jan. 20, 2009, to April 14, 2010, Rasmussen’s Obama approval number was lower than the RealClearPolitics average of polls on the same day. (On average, the Rasmussen polls were 3.9 points lower than the RealClearPolitics number.)

In 99 percent of the polls taken from Jan. 20, 2017, to April 14, 2018, Rasmussen’s Trump approval number was higher than the RCP average of polls, by an average of 4.9 points."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/politics/wp/2018/04/16/five-things-to-keep-in-mind-whenever-trump-tweets-about-polling/?utm_term=.af9b8f5aa1a6

[chancellor]

I'm finding it hard to believe that they skew Democrat....this is news to me.

I was surprised as well, but if you're asking me if I believe Nate Silver or anyone from the WaPo - and, remember, both are liberal - I'll believe Nate 99.9% of the time. He has a much better proven track record of not allowing his politics to skew his data. And it's not like Nate's data is showing this as a small number; he's saying the data indicates they lean D up to 3.6%.

[revo]

I was surprised as well, but if you're asking me if I believe Nate Silver or anyone from the WaPo - and, remember, both are liberal - I'll believe Nate 99.9% of the time. He has a much better proven track record of not allowing his politics to skew his data. And it's not like Nate's data is showing this as a small number; he's saying the data indicates they lean D up to 3.6%.

Sure, my whole basis of saying some of these states are leaning Democrat despite the polls (as Nots asked for) was based on 538's data. Even though they also got the 2016 election wrong, I still trust them 99.9% of the time as well.


EDIT -- 538's latest pollster rankings gives Rasmussen a C+ and a bias of R +1.5%:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

[chancellor]

Sure, my whole basis of saying some of these states are leaning Democrat despite the polls (as Nots asked for) was based on 538's data. Even though they also got the 2016 election wrong, I still trust them 99.9% of the time as well.


EDIT -- 538's latest pollster rankings gives Rasmussen a C+ and a bias of R +1.5%:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

Heh...I might have to bump Nate down to a mere 98-99%. Your link and my link are one day apart, with yours having the R 1.5 and mine having D 3.6 for Rasmussen. One of those certainly has to be wrong.

[baldgriff]

At this point I suspect Ellison is and probably should be toast.

Ellison came up in the Supreme Court discussion. ITC seems to see him running away with his race in MN.

So I ask, as I dont live there anymore, where was the outrage from the Left when Ellison was accused of domestic violence with 911 tapes seeming to support the charge from the person that made the call.

Women getting assaulted is only worth listening to when they damage a non-Lefty??