2018 Midterm Election Thread

[Bernie Brewer]

She is going to be the head of the banking committee. That should be frightening

Fixed it for you.

Waters and TARP and OneUnited. Look it up.

[frae]

I am not as down as Fly mostly because I thought the midwest came back some. Yes, you need to run good candidates and the Democrats won't make the mistakes Hillary Clinton made of ignoring MI and WI again. The country is very divided so as Fly mentioned in the 2017 and beyond thread, Klobachur might be the exact type of candidate we need to win. It is very simple math in 2020. Flip PA, WI, and MI and the Democrats take back the WH. IA, OH, and FL will be fought over. Possibly NH, NC, and AZ, but the math is simple Democrats need to hold their map and win those 3 midwestern states (PA is essentially like a midwestern state if we want to argue over its regional assignment).

[B-Fly]

I am not as down as Fly mostly because I thought the midwest came back some. Yes, you need to run good candidates and the Democrats won't make the mistakes Hillary Clinton made of ignoring MI and WI again. The country is very divided so as Fly mentioned in the 2017 and beyond thread, Klobachur might be the exact type of candidate we need to win. It is very simple math in 2020. Flip PA, WI, and MI and the Democrats take back the WH. IA, OH, and FL will be fought over. Possibly NH, NC, and AZ, but the math is simple Democrats need to hold their map and win those 3 midwestern states (PA is essentially like a midwestern state if we want to argue over its regional assignment).

Exactly. The path to defeating Trump runs through PA, WI and MI. I wonder how much impact the re-enfranchisement of felons in FL might have, as well.

[frae]

Exactly. The path to defeating Trump runs through PA, WI, and MI. I wonder how much impact the re-enfranchisement of felons in FL might have, as well.

I think it definitely matters long term and maybe it does make FL the most likely pick up that isn't PA, WI, or MI. Again I am cherry picking some here but Dems won both statewide races in PA, WI, MI, and MN and showed that a guy like Brown can still win in OH. We can say our path to victory is narrow and it is, but what state did the Dems win in 2016 that we think they lose in 2020? NH and NV are the closest I can come up with and NV just elected two Democrats in statewide races.

[nots]

Agree on all points. Pathetic that Duncan Hunter was voted back in.

Do you think the reason Blackburn, Hawley, Cramer and Braun all crushed so much is that their opponents ran as "R-lite", and Republicans preferred the full calorie alternative?

No, I don’t think so. Those states are really red and McCaskill and Donnelly were only elected in 2012 because the GOP ran some rapey candidates which got some moderates to vote for the GOP lite folks. Put another way, I don’t think if Beto ran in any of those states, he would have done much better.
Forgot to mention—the Tester result surprises me a lot. I think I was on here saying he would would win by double figures (if I didn’t say it, I certainly felt that way). I think he will still pull thru, but I didn’t expect it to be close.

[Teenwolf]

No, I don't. I think those states voted against the Democratic Party, just like NJ voters voted against the Republican Party.

How is it an indictment of Progressives that Gillum lost after he abandoned talking about Medicare for All and had Clinton and Bloomberg stumping for him? No true progressive let's Hillary on that stage.

[onejayhawk]

A mixed bag last night. The Democrats win the House, but with a paper-thin margin. It's currently at 7 and might go up to 11 when the close races finalize. Based on the current tallies, most likely either 5 or 7. The Republicans do much better than expected in the Senate. The Democrats win the night in the Gubernatorial races. This is significant because Republicans dominated the state races for a decade.

RCP averages were dead on for the House (Democrats gain 27 seats and control) and the Governor's seats (Democrats +7). If current margins hold up, which looks likely, the Republicans significantly overperformed in the Senate (That would be +5. RCP had them at +2). Mitch McConnell will have a bigger vote margin than Nancy Pelosi.

There is an interesting article in National Review. It talks of the virtues of moderation.

Progressives looked to candidates focused on turning out new, liberal voters—at the possible expense of suburban swing voters—to recreate the electorate in their states. Stacey Abrams, Beto O’Rourke, and Andrew Gillum weren’t just inspirational candidates looking to make history; they also offered a test of whether the best way to challenge Trumpism is with unapologetic progressivism. All three lost, and Gillum’s defeat came despite ample polling showing him ahead.

House Democrats took a different approach in their attempt to win back control of the lower chamber—and to check the president. They recruited military veterans and national security experts without partisan backgrounds. They understood that to win suburban areas where Republicans once dominated, they needed to reassure swing voters that they didn’t support single-payer health insurance, open borders, and a wild-eyed foreign policy. It’s why so many of the Democratic victors were running as apolitical outsiders.

https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/674476?unlock=Y2S8NYBX4MW7GX0S

I have been scrolling through the undecided House races. If current margins hold up, the Democrats will have a five-vote margin in the House. That's not paper thin; it's onion skin.

J

[frae]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2018-election-results-coverage/

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/06/us/elections/results-house-forecast.html

I don't see what you see. I see about 229-206

538 has it at 223 - 201 as of right now before calling the remaining undecideds. The NYT has it at 220 - 193 without calling their undecideds.

[Hornsby]

The major point to take away from last night's voting is that the Dems will now be in control of all committee chairmanships. This is a huge issue when you look at the shenanigans that have been played by the GOP over the last several years. They can keep things from going off the rails, and avoid some of the unnecessary obstruction and "investigations" that have gone on.

Dems have some power now, use it wisely. Don't go off chasing Unicorns like impeachment...stay the course and look to 2020.

[Judge Jude]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blo...ults-coverage/

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/06/us/elections/results-house-forecast.html

I don't see what you see. I see about 229-206

538 has it at 223 - 201 as of right now before calling the remaining undecideds. The NYT has it at 220 - 193 without calling their undecideds.

some of that may be "how many seats does a party have to flip to regain power?" so 12, if it's 229-206 - not far off "might go up to 11"

[frae]

some of that may be "how many seats does a party have to flip to regain power?" so 12, if it's 229-206 - not far off "might go up to 11"

My point is the likely outcomes I am seeing continue to indicate the Dems gain +34 not +27 and the margin of the majority does not looks like it will be onion thin when reading through these two projections. I don't know what OneJ is looking at so I wanted to link the data I see.

[DMT]

My point is the likely outcomes I am seeing continue to indicate the Dems gain +34 not +27 and the margin of the majority does not looks like it will not be onion thin reading through these two projections. I don't know what OneJ is looking at so I wanted to link the data I see.

No one ever knows what he's talking about, not sure why people keep expecting him to magically start making sense.

[DMT]

Tester will pull away with remaining votes coming from his strongholds. Sinema isn't out yet with apparently 500-600K early votes yet to be counted.

[frae]

No one ever knows what he's talking about, not sure why people keep expecting him to magically start making sense.

I don't know, but when you come in with a statement like it will be +27 and not everyone has all the time to go through the data I feel the need to post. I am on day 3 of recovery with nothing to do but read polls and sleep.

[DMT]

I don't know, but when you come in with a statement like it will be +27 and not everyone has all the time to go through the data I feel the need to post. I am on day 3 of recovery with nothing to do but read polls and sleep.

Oh sure dispute his nonsense but just don't ever expect him to change.