2018 Midterm Election Thread

[B-Fly]

Per 538, the Democrats are rebounding in the House forecast but falling further behind in the Senate forecast. They have NV and MO as essentially tied, the Dems slightly ahead in AZ and FL, and the GOP ahead in ND, TN and TX. (They have WV and NJ pretty solid for the Dems at this point.)

So if that plays out, with the tied races splitting 1-1, then we'll be right back at 51-49 GOP.

[chancellor]

I don’t care what the polls or OneJay says.....I think Beto pulls the upset.

How come? I'm curious since statistically, Texas races do not come in more Dem than polled.

[revo]

How come? I'm curious since statistically, Texas races do not come in more Dem than polled.

Nothing more than a hunch. He's attained a national stature, and I think he will encourage a lot of young folks to come out and vote. He's the closest thing to a rock star the Dems have, and of all the races, I just think maybe this is the one the polls get wrong.

[TS Garp]

Nothing more than a hunch. He's attained a national stature, and I think he will encourage a lot of young folks to come out and vote. He's the closest thing to a rock star the Dems have, and of all the races, I just think maybe this is the one the polls get wrong.

Pretty interesting:

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/09/us/politics/texas-beto-orourke-evangelicals-women.html

[Teenwolf]

Nothing more than a hunch. He's attained a national stature, and I think he will encourage a lot of young folks to come out and vote. He's the closest thing to a rock star the Dems have, and of all the races, I just think maybe this is the one the polls get wrong.

I want him to win, and I think he has a chance to do it... but ultimately, I believe he's playing with kids' gloves, and it won't be enough. He has plenty of ammo to crush Cruz with, but he's not making things personal, not attacking. He's focused on policies, but he really should be getting down in the muck with Cruz just a little bit more.

[Ken]

If Beto wins it will because of his marketing. His team has called or texted everyone I know, and he's the only politician to do that in this area.

[onejayhawk]

Nothing more than a hunch. He's attained a national stature, and I think he will encourage a lot of young folks to come out and vote. He's the closest thing to a rock star the Dems have, and of all the races, I just think maybe this is the one the polls get wrong.

They made Wendy Davis a national name in 2014. Abbott crushed her in the gubernatorial race.

If Beto wins it will because of his marketing. His team has called or texted everyone I know, and he's the only politician to do that in this area.

If Beto wins the universe as we understand it will no longer exist. To use a poker analogy, he's drawing dead. In real terms, he had the field to himself for a month because of the Kavanaugh nomination. In that time he fell 6% behind by the RCP average. He never was closer than 3% and he's fading fast.

The real issue is the House. The punits disagree on which way that ball is rolling. 538 goes from 76% to 77% and people are crowing that control is getting more likely. Worse, only one of the three models has that small increase. Crystal Ball is not even that cut and dried. Their approach is to show the Democrats favored to gain about 14 seats with about 25 net Republican seats as tossup. While that is a hopeful scenario, in 2014 the Republicans essentially swept the toss-up races. The never fully answered question was why.

With North Dakota seemingly a clear flip to the Republicans, Democratic hopes in the Senate are fading. They should be focusing on their chances in the other chamber. That said, Democrats and Democratic PACs have outspent the Republicans by over $50 Million.

J

[B-Fly]

If Beto wins the universe as we understand it will no longer exist.

LOL, thanks Rafael.

[onejayhawk]

LOL, thanks Rafael.

It's R. Edward Cruz, thank you very much. A new poll has him up 6.8% in the average. More significantly, he is now over 50%.

The race to watch is Missouri, my wife's home state. Most of the races show clear movement, but that one is neck and neck.

J

[cardboardbox]

LOL, thanks Rafael.

cant wait for Robert to crawl back under the rock he came from.

[onejayhawk]

cant wait for Robert to crawl back under the rock he came from.

OK. I give up. Who's Robert?

J

[cardboardbox]

OK. I give up. Who's Robert?

J

Robert Francis O'Rourke?

[revo]

Robert Francis O'Rourke?

Didja see he raised the most amount of money in a quarter in the entire history of the US Senate?

[onejayhawk]

Didja see he raised the most amount of money in a quarter in the entire history of the US Senate?

Yeah. They started calling him Beto N'York because of all the out of state money. And, it's pissing into the wind. He's already toast.

J

[frae]

While the Senate odds will never get anywhere near the 1/3 highmark for Dems they have now bounced back in the House forecasts. The highmark for Democrats in the 538 forecasts was 83.1 on Sept 14th the low mark is actually 71.5 on Aug 14th, but more recently the low was 73.8 on October 8th. As of totday the odds 79.7.

So this last week the House race results have bumped back in the right direction for Democrats. The median expected pickup would be +35. The Senate map doesn't work as well for the Democrats and at this point I'd say the most likely scenarios are 0 gain for anyone or +1 or +2 for the Republicans.

Here's an article on 538 on why the races are different and moving in different directions...

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-the-house-and-senate-are-moving-in-opposite-directions/?ex_cid=538twitter