First Expert Mock Draft tonight

[griswold]

Look at it this way...he doesn't have to worry if his 1st rounder will go down to an injury early in the season...

Silver Lining.

LOL...yeah I guess that's a way to look at it.

[revo]

So I don't want to dramatically change the subject, but since you're drafting based off of it Gris, is your Game Score/Consistency theory predictive? In other words, do you think the consistency of Bell, for example, will carry over to this year purely based on last year?

[griswold]

So I don't want to dramatically change the subject, but since you're drafting based off of it Gris, is your Game Score/Consistency theory predictive? In other words, do you think the consistency of Bell, for example, will carry over to this year purely based on last year?

I believe it is. Obviously some of the keys to maintaining that consistency is as follows:

1. Did the players change teams? It may hurt or help their consistency. For example, I believe DeMarco Murray's consistency will drop in Philly while I think McCoy's will improve in Buffalo.

2. Is the player coming off an injury from the year before? Were they consistent before the injury? (For example, Jeremy Maclin was very consistent in 2012, but missed all of 2013. Then when he returned in 2014, he still maintained that consistency because the team was conducive for consistency success.

3. Did the player lose key players around him? A receiver's consistency can flucuate if they lose their WR1 or WR2 putting more pressure on that receiver defensively. A key loss to the OL for running backs can hurt their consistency.

So, in summary, someone like Bell who over two seasons has a 92% and 100% respectively....yes, I believe his consistency will remain.

Hope that helps.

Gris

[Erik]

So I don't want to dramatically change the subject, but since you're drafting based off of it Gris, is your Game Score/Consistency theory predictive? In other words, do you think the consistency of Bell, for example, will carry over to this year purely based on last year?

The rate of first and second round RB busts is high. Something like 50% historically. At this position, season- to-season consistency may be even harder to find than game-to-game consistency.

[griswold]

The rate of first and second round RB busts is high. Something like 50% historically. At this position, season- to-season consistency may be even harder to find than game-to-game consistency.

In all due respect, I disagree that it's difficult to identify season-to-season consistency.

I'm not perfect at it, that's for sure...because there will always be outliers.

However, I believe my system is much more reliable than "hype the upside" of players like most "experts" do.

[Erik]

I think it's quite easy to ID it at QB and somewhat easy to identify it at WR. My point was only about RBs.

[jwlincy]

Gris, you got a little bonus with the reduction of Bell's suspension from 3 to 2 games.

[griswold]

Gris, you got a little bonus with the reduction of Bell's suspension from 3 to 2 games.

I still have the best team...regardless.....#bigego