First Expert Mock Draft tonight

[griswold]

Tonight I'm participating in my annual Lindy's Fantasy Magazine Expert Mock Draft.

It's a pretty solid group of experts, John Hansen, Andy Behrens, Scott Pianowski, Sigmund Bloom, brad Evans and Chet Gresham to name a few.

The scoring method to draft to is as follows:

1/25 pass
1/10 run/rec

3pts/pass TD
6pts/run/rec TD

NON-PPR

I have the #4 pick in the first round.

I'm assuming one of the four will fall to me:

Lacy, Lynch or Forte

All of them were over a 75% QSR (consistency rate), so I feel good about any of them.

There may be a chance that LeVeon Bell will fall as well.

The 3 pts per passing TD and 1/25 yards really diminshes the QB value so I'll wait to draft someone in Rounds 5-8.

Thoughts? Questions? Concerns?

Hey, just my draft.

Gris

[revo]

Remember, L. Bell is suspended for the first three games.

FBGs has Rob Gronkowski as the #1 overall pick -- any chance he goes top 3 here?

[griswold]

Remember, L. Bell is suspended for the first three games.

FBGs has Rob Gronkowski as the #1 overall pick -- any chance he goes top 3 here?

Yeah, I'm aware of Bell's situation. If I draft him, I'll grab DeAngelo Williams later in the draft.

Gronk #1 overall????

Seriously????

[revo]

Yeah, I'm aware of Bell's situation. If I draft him, I'll grab DeAngelo Williams later in the draft.

Gronk #1 overall????

Seriously????

He's the #1 player in the consensus re-draft rankings.

[griswold]

He's the #1 player in the consensus re-draft rankings.

Yep, you're right!

I just checked....that's just absurd!

No one is going to pick Gronk before maybe #6 or #7 in any draft (PPR or not) this year.

If they do I'll let everyone know...lol

As smart as those guys are on that site, I'm really disappointed in those numbers.

I realize that it's mostly because two writers in those rankings listed Bell 13th and 15th skewing his overall average, but still that puts Gronk 2nd or 3rd at worst.

[griswold]

Here's my team...like? dislike?

1.04 Le'Veon Bell
2.09 LeSean McCoy
3.04 Aaron Rodgers
4.09 Keenan Allen
5.04 Greg Olsen
6.09 Brandon Marshall
7.04 Torrey Smith
8.09 Darren McFadden
9.04 Marques Colston
10.09 Kendall Wright
11.04 Matthew Stafford
12.09 Seattle Seahawks
13.04 Adam Vinatieri
14.09 DeAngelo Williams

[revo]

how many teams?

[griswold]

how many teams?

12 teams

[griswold]

Can you talk me through why you'd spend the 4th overall on a dude who's going to miss 20% of the season guaranteed?

Absolutely....in a Non-PPR last season, Bell was 15 of 16 in Quality Games (consistency), so even if he plays 13 games and goes 12 of 13, he earns more Quality Games than all about 3 RB's from last season.

I draft DeAngelo Williams in the last round to fill his spot and also grabbed Darren McFadden (who I'd assume what play for about 4 games and then get hurt...lol).

[revo]

Absolutely....in a Non-PPR last season, Bell was 15 of 16 in Quality Games (consistency), so even if he plays 13 games and goes 12 of 13, he earns more Quality Games than all about 3 RB's from last season.

I draft DeAngelo Williams in the last round to fill his spot and also grabbed Darren McFadden (who I'd assume what play for about 4 games and then get hurt...lol).

Yeah but most fantasy seasons are 13 games.....so Bell would only be able to play in 10 of them. And losing your first rounder for 3 games puts you behind the 8-ball in making the playoffs, so not sure I would count the final 3 games. I agree with ElD, #4 is high for a player out the 1st 3 weeks.

As far as your draft, wow -- if you knew you could have landed Stafford in Rd 11, I'm sure you'd take back Rodgers in Rd 3!

[griswold]

Yeah but most fantasy seasons are 13 games.....so Bell would only be able to play in 10 of them. And losing your first rounder for 3 games puts you behind the 8-ball in making the playoffs, so not sure I would count the final 3 games. I agree with ElD, #4 is high for a player out the 1st 3 weeks.

As far as your draft, wow -- if you knew you could have landed Stafford in Rd 11, I'm sure you'd take back Rodgers in Rd 3!

Well, with the scoring method being 3 pts per TD pass...Rodgers was tied with Luck at 81% QSR (consistency rate).....no other QB's were close other than Peyton and Brees and I'm not believing in their 2015 to match that.

Stafford QSR in that scoring method was 50% last year....and no, I did not think Stafford would be available in the 11th round...lol

[Piney Boy]

Aren't we all wondering where Gronk went?

[griswold]

Aren't we all wondering where Gronk went?

He was picked 5th overall...so the pick right after me.

BTW, Adrian Peterson went #1 overall and was picked by the Fantasy Guru, John Hansen.

[griswold]

I'm fine with the Rodgers pick but kind of hate the Bell pick. I honestly don't even know if he's a first round player, given his suspension.

I completely understand....I thought about picking Forte and in hindsight, I probably should have...but Bell was 45 points above Forte last season and Bell was 2nd and Forte was 4th in total points in Non-PPR format.

However, Bell was 92% consistent and Forte was 75% consistent.

If DeAngelo Williams even scores half of those points and earns a Quality Game or two in those 3 games, then Bell/Williams greatly outweighs Forte.

[Pogues]

Well, you certainly mitigated the risk with a nice pick in Shady in round 2. And in a vacuum I do like Bell better than Forte but that suspension is tough. Losing your first rounder, even for three games, can dramatically impact your season.

Look at it this way...he doesn't have to worry if his 1st rounder will go down to an injury early in the season...

Silver Lining.