*!* VD 2 Commentary Thread *!*

[johnnya24]

Lastly, the "Darrell" combo of Evans + Strawberry really did a number on your career BA, taking you from 6th or 7th in the category to 2nd to last.

Although I think Strawberry was the optimal pick ... did you have someone else? Joe Carter was close I seem to remember. I think you can only pick a guy like Evans / Killebrew / Kingman in a multi draft if you set out a plan to pick them (either dumping BA, or going after BA big style) ... or they just happen to be the best option at the end.

Totally agree on the closer point (and low IP starters and tweeners) ... and also the fact that we are picking 12 pitchers, so that crappy BA can be absorbed even easier. It should be a rule of thumb never to pick a closer based on ratios unless you are going after a low IP strategy ... and low IP strategies are uncommon in multi drafting. KS was always good at picking up mid-late value this way.
I was targeting Dave Righetti until "someone" swiped him from me.

[Long John]

I'll give you some in-depth thoughts when I get home. Your team looks good, solid, and maybe in another format you compete ... but at first glance I can spot that you picked 5 KO exempt decades in your first 10 picks. I was discussing with Revo earlier, and we both independently realized that this was not the optimal strategy. The three top teams (Revo, Controller, Johnny) went the other way and filled the non-exempt decades first, hoping that the exempt decades would hold their value better. I even ditched positional drafting in favour of non-exempt value ... which was worrying me a little bit for a while ... I only had one tough position filled in the first 13 rounds, and I didn't pick him (Hartnett) until the 9th.

Number of non-exempt decades in the early rounds:

Controller J: 0 in first 8 picks
Johnny: 1 in 12
Revo: 2 in 13

Yeah, I specifically went after the exempt decades first, not realizing how much the KOs would affect the other decades. I left 2010 hitting alone because I saw a ton of depth there. Helton provided me with some needed career numbers and his 2011 season isn't completely terrible. If I wanted to, I could have easily gone with someone like Matt Kemp's 2011, but I couldn't afford not to take in those career hitting numbers from Helton. I also considered the other KO victim, Johnny Damon, but my need for RBIs was greater than my need for runs. Plus, his 2010(?) season has a .269 BA over 525 ABs - not optimal.

[revo]

Although I think Strawberry was the optimal pick ... did you have someone else? Joe Carter was close I seem to remember. I think you can only pick a guy like Evans / Killebrew / Kingman in a multi draft if you set out a plan to pick them (either dumping BA, or going after BA big style) ... or they just happen to be the best option at the end.

No, Straw turned out to be better than anyone else at this point. Problem was, 1980s hitting held on for awhile, but by the last few rounds, there was nothing left due to KOs and the last solid bunch (the Hit Man, Puckett, Eric the Red). Eric Davis, for instance, is worth 6-7 more pts for Long John than Straw, and he was taken just a few rounds ago.

With decades and KOs, I think you really needed to check to see when a decade would fall off the cliff, or when a run on the decade might begin. Some non-exempt decades were deeper than many thought (1970s hitters), and some dried up and left the last few holding the bag (1920s and 1930s bats).

[Long John]

Yeah - this is only my second VD ever. I don't have a feel for that yet.

[johnnya24]

With decades and KOs, I think you really needed to check to see when a decade would fall off the cliff, or when a run on the decade might begin. Some non-exempt decades were deeper than many thought (1970s hitters), and some dried up and left the last few holding the bag (1920s and 1930s bats).

I didn't keep my own SS updated this draft ... didn't have time. But the one thing I did focus on was changeable Decade values ... because of the unpredictability of KO's. I picked up a few players who dropped of a ledge rather than the whole cliff (Waddell, Hartnett, Sheffield, Bagwell) ... only two that realistically fell of a cliff (Clemente & Killebrew ... and I gambled on Killebrew, which in hindsight was pretty dumb).

[The Feral Slasher]

johnny or anyone else care to weigh in on my strategy? Any picks that were not as optimal as they should have been?

I think it is tough to win a multi scoring draft if you don't follow the crowd for the most part. Grabbing all your pitching while everyone else is getting hitting really makes it hard to compete in hitting. I went with two pitchers early and felt like I was trying to catch up on hitting for the rest of the draft. It didn't help that my first couple hitters picked had a lot of value in SB, which can usually be grabbed later. That's my thought anyway, like you I'm pretty new to this so I'm certainly not an expert.

On another note Revo grabbed about 4 or 5 of my "next picks" three picks before I was going to take them. He really screwed me over this draft. Based on his performance they must have been good picks anyway.

[DMT]

Yep, Revo and Nascar snaked at least a half-dozen picks from me b/w them, not surprised to see them near the top. You newbies enjoy it, I just keep getting worse.

[The Feral Slasher]

I didn't keep my own SS updated this draft ... didn't have time. But the one thing I did focus on was changeable Decade values ... because of the unpredictability of KO's. I picked up a few players who dropped of a ledge rather than the whole cliff (Waddell, Hartnett, Sheffield, Bagwell) ... only two that realistically fell of a cliff (Clemente & Killebrew ... and I gambled on Killebrew, which in hindsight was pretty dumb).

I really had a hard time gauging the decade scarcity and figuring out the depth. Of course the KO's didn't make that any easier. And who's idea was it to KO all the KO pitchers anyway ? I was hoping someone would join Revo and I and knockout all the catchers but that one didn't take

[SeaDogStat]

I really had a hard time gauging the decade scarcity and figuring out the depth. Of course the KO's didn't make that any easier. And who's idea was it to KO all the KO pitchers anyway ? I was hoping someone would join Revo and I and knockout all the catchers but that one didn't take

Sorry... I KO'd some Nolan Ryan guy with the first KO pick.

[The Feral Slasher]

Sorry... I KO'd some Nolan Ryan guy with the first KO pick.

Note to self -- Slash Purple Hippo

[johnnya24]

I think it is tough to win a multi scoring draft if you don't follow the crowd for the most part. Grabbing all your pitching while everyone else is getting hitting really makes it hard to compete in hitting. I went with two pitchers early and felt like I was trying to catch up on hitting for the rest of the draft. It didn't help that my first couple hitters picked had a lot of value in SB, which can usually be grabbed later. That's my thought anyway, like you I'm pretty new to this so I'm certainly not an expert.

On another note Revo grabbed about 4 or 5 of my "next picks" three picks before I was going to take them. He really screwed me over this draft. Based on his performance they must have been good picks anyway.

Firstly ... you are in a very close battle with ElDiablo (and possibly SDS) for 4th ... which by any accounts is a very good finish!

The problem wasn't that you went pitcher-pitcher ... in the end you'll finish top in pitching, so it worked. Moreso that you went positional with your hitting after that: 2B, C, 2B OF, C. Your picks were very good value, but you lacked those solid all-round anchor picks to compete. Something like Al Simmons and Gary Sheffield might have been a better suited to an all-round strategy ... or maybe an early commitment to dump/semi dump one or two hitting categories (career SB or both BA's) ... and focus your counting stats on the other categories. You left yourself with too much juggling, which is often best reflected if you find yourself mulling over picks that got stolen (because you left yourself with narrower options, and therefore fewer back ups)

[The Feral Slasher]

Firstly ... you are in a close battle with ElDiablo (and possibly SDS) for 4th ... which by any account is a very good finish!

The problem wasn't that you went pitcher-pitcher ... in the end you'll finish top in pitching, so it worked. Moreso that you went positional with your hitting after that: 2B, C, 2B OF, C. Your picks were very good value, but you lacked those solid all-round anchor picks to compete. Something like Al Simmons and Gary Sheffield might have been a better suited to an all-round strategy ... or maybe an early commitment to dump/semi dump one or two hitting categories (career SB or both BA's) ... and focus your counting stats on the other categories. You left yourself with too much juggling, which is often best reflected if you find yourself mulling over picks that got stolen (because you left yourself with narrower options, and therefore fewer back ups)

Yes, going for the scarce positions right after 2 pitchers was the nail in the coffin. Falling behind in career r/rbi led to Vlad Guerrero being picked way to early and a number of less than optimal picks.

[johnnya24]

Yes, going for the scarce positions right after 2 pitchers was the nail in the coffin. Falling behind in career r/rbi led to Vlad Guerrero being picked way to early and a number of less than optimal picks.

Again ... 4th/5th is a top finish!

These multi scoring drafts are tough ... they are impossible to win again and again.

You could have tried something funky like chasing the big BY guys early, and target your KO on guys like Ramirez etc (who got KO'd anyway), then pick 2/3 of these guys in the later rounds to make up your career numbers. You would have been perfectly positioned to try something like this, especially after the poll discussions. I thought about it, but with Ted Williams and Hamilton on board it wasn't a +ev strategy. You might have made it work. I'm surprised no-one gave it a shot.

[The Feral Slasher]

Again ... 4th/5th is a top finish!

These multi scoring drafts are tough ... they are impossible to win again and again.

Thanks ! I probably used the wrong terms, it was probably my biggest mistake. It is interesting the differences between the different types of drafts. Multi scoring and decades are a lot different than the first draft we did.

[Riff Raff]

This draft seemed like it started OK for me but as it went on it got progressively worse. I think a lack of time to pay attention, organize tiers in the decades or come up with any sort of player rankings based on stats really hurt.