*** VD 15 Commentary Thread ***

[jmaeroff]

Exactly!

I on the other hand can often be heard bragging about how poorly I brag. The younger generation inform me this is known as a "humble brag".

[johnnya24]

I on the other hand can often be heard bragging about how poorly I brag. The younger generation inform me this is known as a "humble brag".

And now you're humble bragging about humble bragging. Where will this madness end?

[Ken]

I'm okay with "My pick was great" Less so with... "I had a much better pick for you than you did"

The funny thing about it is when they are just flat out wrong though. Based on my valuations, there are 183 pitcher-years between Quisenberry and the "mystery" player. Funny to see someone call out a bad pick when in reality they are off so much in their own valuations. I just laugh it off as the misplaced bravado that it is.


** giving you a hard time Adam. Hopefully you can take it as well as you dish it!

[DMT]

Now with the extra QUIZ, I wonder when the next QUIZY guys will go. Usually, there is a break between the first seven and the rest. I wonder what happens now.

Well that didn't take long.

[revo]

Well that didn't take long.

Ben Zobrist's mom would be so proud that he went in Rd 3!

[cavebird]

The funny thing about it is when they are just flat out wrong though. Based on my valuations, there are 183 pitcher-years between Quisenberry and the "mystery" player. Funny to see someone call out a bad pick when in reality they are off so much in their own valuations. I just laugh it off as the misplaced bravado that it is.


** giving you a hard time Adam. Hopefully you can take it as well as you dish it!

No problems or hard feelings whatsoever---any delay in my replies is because of doing interviews at work on and off all day. (Yes, I have the silly work from home attire of gym shorts and a nice shirt on.)

And I don't doubt there is a huge number of pitchers between Quisenberry and the mystery pitcher (maybe we can keep coming up with silly names for him and make that a thing this commentary thread)--hell, I may have overdrafted him. I also don't doubt that many disagree with my theory---people keep drafting Quis/Izzy/and Ugi early, after all. But that's the question with any pick--is taking this guy better than the guy I would get later at a similar letter/franchise (decade last draft) more than any other guy I could take right now. My theory is that the QUIZ players (not QUIZY---the top Y's are just much better and they go earlier) just aren't good enough over a blank that you would get at the end than other players you could get early are over the guys you could get at a similar letter and franchise (or decade last draft) later. Not sure. Don't think there is a way to objectively prove it because you would have to know what will be left at the end, which you can't early on.

[johnnya24]

Well that didn't take long.

Not to mention Heyelander wondering if he's just chopped liver.

[cavebird]

And sorry, one of said interviews is now, so my pick will be delayed about half an hour.

[Ken]

No problems or hard feelings whatsoever---any delay in my replies is because of doing interviews at work on and off all day. (Yes, I have the silly work from home attire of gym shorts and a nice shirt on.)

And I don't doubt there is a huge number of pitchers between Quisenberry and the mystery pitcher (maybe we can keep coming up with silly names for him and make that a thing this commentary thread)--hell, I may have overdrafted him. I also don't doubt that many disagree with my theory---people keep drafting Quis/Izzy/and Ugi early, after all. But that's the question with any pick--is taking this guy better than the guy I would get later at a similar letter/franchise (decade last draft) more than any other guy I could take right now. My theory is that the QUIZ players (not QUIZY---the top Y's are just much better and they go earlier) just aren't good enough over a blank that you would get at the end than other players you could get early are over the guys you could get at a similar letter and franchise (or decade last draft) later. Not sure. Don't think there is a way to objectively prove it because you would have to know what will be left at the end, which you can't early on.

I take the opposite approach - I try to identify a replacement level player - knowing full well that I will not likely hit exactly the last player picked. But it's close enough. And then I use the objective analysis to compare. I do this across letters, across franchises, across positions, across eras. Some of them are small enough to disregard. And obviously the crossover isn't perfectly accounted for.

But I would say that yes, you can objectively measure this if you take into account some assumptions which are "close".

[Bene Futuis]

The last time we drafted in this format, Quiz was taken 9th overall. It was ezeagle's pick, though, so....

[Bene Futuis]

Ugueth got taken 13th overall and Isringhausen 26th.

[johnnya24]

The last time we drafted in this format, Quiz was taken 9th overall. It was ezeagle's pick, though, so....

Do you have VDXIII or do you mean VDV?

[Bene Futuis]

Clear your PMs, Moonlight Johnny.

[Bene Futuis]

do you have vdxiii or do you mean vdv?

xiii

.

[jmaeroff]

Just a heads-up: I am returning to in-person work tomorrow, so starting then, if my spot comes up mid-day I may be delayed til I get home in the evening. I expect to be able to select before going to bed at night, though.