*** VD 14 Commentary Thread ***

[johnnya24]

Now that I look at it, Hisashi Iwakuma was a pretty decent final round QUI.

[cavebird]

There is not usually an advantage to picking last. Particularly in a letter/decade format

Yep; I would agree with that---there usually isn't any overlap and the picks are obvious. This time we have three teams with wild cards left with 1910's, 20's, and 30's hitters left. All kinds of possibilities there. Hell, there are good hitters with eligibility in all three decades.

[The Feral Slasher]

There is not usually an advantage to picking last. Particularly in a letter/decade format

The advantage of an early pick in round 1 farrrrrr outweighs the advantage of pickimg last

[johnnya24]

I'd like to officially propose that we do something about the last round problem --- should we revisit blind picks for the last round like we've discussed in the past?

The last time it was discussed was because I screwed up and had an even number of rounds, that is, the person who drafted first also drafted last *derp*. Didn't realize until it was too late.

Personally I'm OK with those drafting last in the first also get to draft last in the final round. Though saying that, it rarely makes a difference.

There is definitely a slight advantage to drafting in the first slots, especially in certain formats. But it is only slight.

[cavebird]

Huh, what I thought was an obvious pick for a certain someone turned out to be like 3 points worse than another one I found. Now I have the top two very close.

Well, that would have been what I wanted to send you. It's tight as a tick between me and DMT (you can say that much; it is obvious).

[Bene Futuis]

One of the only times I've won at this thing was where Johnny and I were basically in a dead heat but the final pick was perhaps sub-optimal and I won by a couple tenths.

[The Feral Slasher]

They are all blind if people are nice. I have avoided saying anything to anyone that would affect things, to my knowledge---despite the temptation. The problem with last round blind picks is that we should always have an odd number of rounds and not blind last round picks---the advantage of picking early is counter-balanced by the advantage of seeing the picks in the last round. DMT has that advantage over me, and he deserves it---I got Pete Alexander.

There is not usually an advantage to picking last. Particularly in a letter/decade format

[Bene Futuis]

Huh, what I thought was an obvious pick for a certain someone turned out to be like 3 points worse than another one I found. Now I have the top two very close.

[cavebird]

That being said, I would be all in favor of a blind last round if the number of rounds were even---the last non-blind picks would be for those who picked last in the first round, and the added benefit of drafting last in the last round would disappear.

[cavebird]

And Bene, I would love to give you some projection advice, but (A) you haven't picked yet and (B) there are only three teams with hitters left to pick, and those teams affect each other with their picks more---the three teams are me, you, and DMT, and we have decades of 1910, 1920, and 1930, so our choices definitely overlap. You are basically the last person I can give a projection hint to.

[Bene Futuis]

Hmm, I dunno. Seitzer actually looked into whether certain draft positions are advantageous and I think there wasn't much of a difference outside of a moderate benefit to being first. I'm sure he'll remember better than I. But the advantage of picking last or close to last as a contender can be enormous.

[cavebird]

They are all blind if people are nice. I have avoided saying anything to anyone that would affect things, to my knowledge---despite the temptation. The problem with last round blind picks is that we should always have an odd number of rounds and not blind last round picks---the advantage of picking early is counter-balanced by the advantage of seeing the picks in the last round. DMT has that advantage over me, and he deserves it---I got Pete Alexander.

[Bene Futuis]

I'd like to officially propose that we do something about the last round problem --- should we revisit blind picks for the last round like we've discussed in the past?

[cavebird]

Hmm, by my hasty and crappy projections with zero thought put into them it looks like there's a clear winner by several points.

I hope it's me, lol! But, no, I don't see that at all.

[Bene Futuis]

Hmm, by my hasty and crappy projections with zero thought put into them it looks like there's a clear winner by several points.