*** VD 12 Commentary Thread ***

[frae]

I actually had decided on Nen or Koji and wasn't sure who I'd take. Mookie didn't give me that choice so it was an easy pick to make.

[Kevin Seitzer]

I knew Nen wasn't going to last all the way back around to me, but if Musial hadn't been there, I would have grabbed Nen.

[frae]

I knew Nen wasn't going to last all the way back around to me, but if Musial hadn't been there, I would have grabbed Nen.

I flirted with Nen or VanHaltren when I took Mays. I wasn't sure Mays or Musial would make the turn and decided I wanted one of them.

[johnnya24]

That solves a problem. Would have had a hard time passing on Nen.

[johnnya24]

Drafting 5th feels like permanent damage control.

[hacko]

Drafting 5th feels like permanent damage control.

I feel the same way about 6th but I am not as bright as Johnny to do anything about it.

I feel good that players I had on my short list are being taken but crappy about all my picks I had to make, but at least I am getting paid to make my picks, so I got that going for me.

Still feels good to get vintage up a running again tho.

[TS Garp]

Not sure there's a great place to draft. I can see 1st being an advantage in a draft with 8-10 teams, but it's impossible to try to figure out who might or might not make their way back to you in almost 30 picks...

[mjl]

bwt, I forget if I've mentioned this to you spreadsheet nerds before, but the Imagine Sports historical leagues are fun. I hadn't done it in a few years but got back into it with a friend of mine recently. Here's our team that's just starting a new season: https://www.imaginesports.com/bball/...RRWBDTKAC2UDPW

You have access to the sim results for all time, including split out by what park they were playing in, though AFAIK it's not directly downloadable so you have to do searches on the site and then either transcribe or download the search results. The general consensus appears to be that people think defense is really important so this team is a test of how accurate that is.

[Ken]

I don't know what I'm doing overall but this is fun.

If I had access to more data and more time I think I could put up a better showing next time. The player name handicaps are just wild guesses for me at this point. I know quizy is best but in a relative sense most of the value plays are gone there so the rest of us are left with junk. Is is better to get good junk rather than bad junk or go after the relative differences between great players with common letters vs good players with common names. Who knows?

Fun either way.

[mjl]

I don't know what I'm doing overall but this is fun.

If I had access to more data and more time I think I could put up a better showing next time. The player name handicaps are just wild guesses for me at this point. I know quizy is best but in a relative sense most of the value plays are gone there so the rest of us are left with junk. Is is better to get good junk rather than bad junk or go after the relative differences between great players with common letters vs good players with common names. Who knows?

Fun either way.

yeah at some point I accepted that I'm smart but I have no context for how to think about these things compared to people who have been doing this for forever and can have intelligent conversations about who they thought was the 13th best hitter - and have someone agree that they also thought that was the 13th best hitter. I have no concept of that. Someday I'll write a machine learning system but until then I'm just sort of being a chump for 15 rounds and then wildly scrabbling to cover all my holes.

p.s. will pick in a couple hours

[hacko]

I don't know what I'm doing overall but this is fun.

If I had access to more data and more time I think I could put up a better showing next time. The player name handicaps are just wild guesses for me at this point. I know quizy is best but in a relative sense most of the value plays are gone there so the rest of us are left with junk. Is is better to get good junk rather than bad junk or go after the relative differences between great players with common letters vs good players with common names. Who knows?

Fun either way.

It took me about 4 times to get the jest of it - now I feel I got the “straight values “ down pretty good . My weakness is coming up with ratio values . I had a pretty decent amount of spreadsheets on my old computer but unfortunately that was my work computer and when they got rid of my job they just walked me out the door. No I did not have any of the sheets backed up. I kept wanting to do but thought what would Heye do. So I blame him. The 3 year gap between drafts didn’ t Help either.

[Ken]

Someday I'll write a machine learning system but until then I'm just sort of being a chump for 15 rounds and then wildly scrabbling to cover all my holes.

That's the funny part, I have written apps for my regular leagues, and I'd just have to make a few adjustments for it to work on this one. I just havent had the time and resources to do it.

The main thing I needed for the app to work was the goal for what metrics to shoot for. i.e. how many RBI do you need to come in with a reasonable team? I have no concept, no clue at all since I haven't been able to find the final rosters from previous drafts yet. But going through this one will help me with that.

[hacko]

That's the funny part, I have written apps for my regular leagues, and I'd just have to make a few adjustments for it to work on this one. I just havent had the time and resources to do it.

The main thing I needed for the app to work was the goal for what metrics to shoot for. i.e. how many RBI do you need to come in with a reasonable team? I have no concept, no clue at all since I haven't been able to find the final rosters from previous drafts yet. But going through this one will help me with that.

Don’t make me sorry I invited you:scared

[TS Garp]

Is is better to get good junk rather than bad junk or go after the relative differences between great players with common letters vs good players with common names.

That's the central question of the draft and there's no straight-forward answer and it also depends on what others are doing. I will say that in my first couple of drafts, it was particularly painful to see how many options were left at letters like C, M, etc while I was figuring out how to fill the more scarce letters. But there's always value to be had -- in some drafts, it does make sense to wait on certain letters. It just helps to have a plan for how you will fill those slots letter. Flying blind is tough. Also, maybe this was bumped, but at some point (many years ago now) someone (probably Johnny) posted a rough scarcity guide to the letters -- sort of a ranking system to which ones are most difficult to fill. Getting beyond the fact that we know QUIZY is the hardest, and OVEN is also very difficult (although within that there are big differences -- E is much harder to fill than O), but which other letters are also very tough, etc. Maybe some can repost it.

[Ken]

Don’t make me sorry I invited you:scared

Heh, well if history serves you won't be sorry for at least another 3 years