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  • #76
    Originally posted by Judge Jude View Post
    this was amusing:

    Bernie MiklaszVerified account ‏@miklasz

    Matheny, when asked about not using closer T. Rosenthal in 9th: "We can't bring him in, in a tie-game situation. We're on the road.”

    .........

    I can't think of a better reason to send a team home for the year. iirc, the Pirates blew Game 161 and then lost the division by 1 game using the exact same genius reasoning. the consolation is that Rosenthal has given up a ton of runners this year. but that comment there may be the dumbest I've read all year.

    The Yankees won 4 WS in 5 years in no small part due to MGR Torre not putting on a straight jacket in terms of Mariano Rivera usage. "We can't" wasn't at the top of Torre's mind regarding when to use Rivera, and for how long, in the POSTSEASON.
    I'm not joking - if I were the GM of the Cards, I'd fire him for this.

    This is how many batters closers faced in road games in the 9th inning or later in 2014. Look who is #1...and then look who is #27

    Comment

    • #77
      and who is #23 and #25!

      also, as that comment on the post notes, I suspect you have some Casilla and Romo innings in there where they weren't the closer. Taking a quick look, I think 2 of the batters faced by Casilla were on April 3, 6 were on April 23, 9 were on May 5, and 3 were on May 8. So of the 26 at bats, at least 20 were when he wasn't the closer, which puts him in the bottom half of that list. I don't think it's a very good illustration of the point you're trying to make. Many of the guys at the top of your list were setup men for at least part of the season - Allen, Melancon, Doolittle, and McGee certainly, not sure about Rondon or Mejia. Uehara, Kimbrel, and Chapman are probably reasonable though.
      In the best of times, our days are numbered, anyway. And it would be a crime against Nature for any generation to take the world crisis so solemnly that it put off enjoying those things for which we were presumably designed in the first place, and which the gravest statesmen and the hoarsest politicians hope to make available to all men in the end: I mean the opportunity to do good work, to fall in love, to enjoy friends, to sit under trees, to read, to hit a ball and bounce the baby.

      Comment

      • #78
        Originally posted by mjl View Post
        and who is #23 and #25!

        also, as that comment on the post notes, I suspect you have some Casilla and Romo innings in there where they weren't the closer. Taking a quick look, I think 2 of the batters faced by Casilla were on April 3, 6 were on April 23, 9 were on May 5, and 3 were on May 8. So of the 26 at bats, at least 20 were when he wasn't the closer, which puts him in the bottom half of that list. I don't think it's a very good illustration of the point you're trying to make. Many of the guys at the top of your list were setup men for at least part of the season - Allen, Melancon, Doolittle, and McGee certainly, not sure about Rondon or Mejia. Uehara, Kimbrel, and Chapman are probably reasonable though.
        I could only filter things by pitchers with at least X saves.

        The larger point was, most closers aren't used in those situations. A few teams do, but the gap between those who do and do not is not terribly large.

        Comment

        • #79
          oh ok. if the point was that there's not much of a gap, then it works for that. your previous post on this thread made me think it was the opposite.
          In the best of times, our days are numbered, anyway. And it would be a crime against Nature for any generation to take the world crisis so solemnly that it put off enjoying those things for which we were presumably designed in the first place, and which the gravest statesmen and the hoarsest politicians hope to make available to all men in the end: I mean the opportunity to do good work, to fall in love, to enjoy friends, to sit under trees, to read, to hit a ball and bounce the baby.

          Comment

          • #80
            It's the postseason, you can take the training wheels off, guys....
            finished 10th in this 37th yr in 11-team-only NL 5x5
            own picks 1, 2, 5, 6, 9 in April 2022 1st-rd farmhand draft
            won in 2017 15 07 05 04 02 93 90 84

            SP SGray 16, TWalker 10, AWood 10, Price 3, KH Kim 2, Corbin 10
            RP Bednar 10, Bender 10, Graterol 2
            C Stallings 2, Casali 1
            1B Votto 10, 3B ERios 2, 1B Zimmerman 2, 2S Chisholm 5, 2B Hoerner 5, 2B Solano 2, 2B LGarcia 10, SS Gregorius 17
            OF Cain 14, Bader 1, Daza 1

            Comment

            • #81
              Me: Who do you think is going to win the World Series?
              Awesome Royals Fan Kid: Royals in 4.
              Me: The Royals are NOT going to sweep the Giants!
              ARFK: Did you think they were going to sweep the Orioles?
              Me: No.
              ARFK: Did you think they were going to sweep the Angels?
              Me: No.
              ARFK: Did you think they were going to beat the A's in the Wild Card game?
              Me: No.
              ARFK: Well, I'm the fan.
              Me: ...

              Tough to argue with the kid.

              Ottawa Triple Eh's | P.I.M.P.S. | 14 team keep forever
              Champions 16,21 | Runner up 17,19-20

              The FOS (retired) | MTARBL | 12 team AL 5x5
              Champions 01,05,17 | Runner up 13-15,20

              Comment

              • #82
                Originally posted by virgonomic View Post
                Me: Who do you think is going to win the World Series?
                Awesome Royals Fan Kid: Royals in 4.
                Me: The Royals are NOT going to sweep the Giants!
                ARFK: Did you think they were going to sweep the Orioles?
                Me: No.
                ARFK: Did you think they were going to sweep the Angels?
                Me: No.
                ARFK: Did you think they were going to beat the A's in the Wild Card game?
                Me: No.
                ARFK: Well, I'm the fan.
                Me: ...

                Tough to argue with the kid.
                "Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake."
                - Napoleon Bonaparte (1769-1821)

                "Your shitty future continues to offend me."
                -Warren Ellis

                Comment

                • #83
                  Originally posted by virgonomic View Post
                  Me: Who do you think is going to win the World Series?
                  Awesome Royals Fan Kid: Royals in 4.
                  Me: The Royals are NOT going to sweep the Giants!
                  ARFK: Did you think they were going to sweep the Orioles?
                  Me: No.
                  ARFK: Did you think they were going to sweep the Angels?
                  Me: No.
                  ARFK: Did you think they were going to beat the A's in the Wild Card game?
                  Me: No.
                  ARFK: Well, I'm the fan.
                  Me: ...

                  Tough to argue with the kid.
                  tell that little bastard I'll give him $20 at 5-1 for a Royals sweep. Put up or shut up! ok ok, $5 at 20-1!
                  Last edited by Fresno Bob; 10-20-2014, 03:02 PM. Reason: little kids don't have $20, or shouldn't....
                  "You know what's wrong with America? If I lovingly tongue a woman's nipple in a movie, it gets an "NC-17" rating, if I chop it off with a machete, it's an "R". That's what's wrong with America, man...."--Dennis Hopper

                  "One should judge a man mainly from his depravities. Virtues can be faked. Depravities are real." -- Klaus Kinski

                  Comment

                  • #84
                    20-1 is too high. There are eight possible outcomes. They occur in roughly equal proportions. The odds on a sweep by a given team is 8-1, absent other considerations. I doubt 20-1 is ever justified.

                    J
                    Ad Astra per Aspera

                    Oh. In that case, never mind. - Wonderboy

                    GITH fails logic 101. - bryanbutler

                    Bah...OJH caught me. - Pogues

                    I don't know if you guys are being willfully ignorant, but... - Judge Jude

                    Comment

                    • #85
                      Originally posted by onejayhawk View Post
                      20-1 is too high. There are eight possible outcomes. They occur in roughly equal proportions. The odds on a sweep by a given team is 8-1, absent other considerations. I doubt 20-1 is ever justified.

                      J
                      I'll offer you the same bet then! $5 at 20-1
                      "You know what's wrong with America? If I lovingly tongue a woman's nipple in a movie, it gets an "NC-17" rating, if I chop it off with a machete, it's an "R". That's what's wrong with America, man...."--Dennis Hopper

                      "One should judge a man mainly from his depravities. Virtues can be faked. Depravities are real." -- Klaus Kinski

                      Comment

                      • #86
                        Originally posted by onejayhawk View Post
                        20-1 is too high. There are eight possible outcomes. They occur in roughly equal proportions. The odds on a sweep by a given team is 8-1, absent other considerations. I doubt 20-1 is ever justified.

                        J
                        I think the probability of a sweep by a given team would be one in sixteen for a best of seven series, assuming each game is a coin toss
                        ---------------------------------------------
                        Champagne for breakfast and a Sherman in my hand !
                        ---------------------------------------------
                        The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.
                        George Orwell, 1984
                        ​

                        Comment

                        • #87
                          Originally posted by eldiablo505
                          I'll take that bet.
                          book it! OJH, you are too slow. I'm only taking ELD and RoyalsFanKid action.
                          Last edited by Fresno Bob; 10-21-2014, 04:32 PM. Reason: minimize my action
                          "You know what's wrong with America? If I lovingly tongue a woman's nipple in a movie, it gets an "NC-17" rating, if I chop it off with a machete, it's an "R". That's what's wrong with America, man...."--Dennis Hopper

                          "One should judge a man mainly from his depravities. Virtues can be faked. Depravities are real." -- Klaus Kinski

                          Comment

                          • #88
                            Strangely quiet in here
                            "You know what's wrong with America? If I lovingly tongue a woman's nipple in a movie, it gets an "NC-17" rating, if I chop it off with a machete, it's an "R". That's what's wrong with America, man...."--Dennis Hopper

                            "One should judge a man mainly from his depravities. Virtues can be faked. Depravities are real." -- Klaus Kinski

                            Comment

                            • #89
                              "20-1 is too high. There are eight possible outcomes. They occur in roughly equal proportions. The odds on a sweep by a given team is 8-1, absent other considerations. I doubt 20-1 is ever justified."

                              I wasn't a math major, but that doesn't seem right, forget about tonight.
                              finished 10th in this 37th yr in 11-team-only NL 5x5
                              own picks 1, 2, 5, 6, 9 in April 2022 1st-rd farmhand draft
                              won in 2017 15 07 05 04 02 93 90 84

                              SP SGray 16, TWalker 10, AWood 10, Price 3, KH Kim 2, Corbin 10
                              RP Bednar 10, Bender 10, Graterol 2
                              C Stallings 2, Casali 1
                              1B Votto 10, 3B ERios 2, 1B Zimmerman 2, 2S Chisholm 5, 2B Hoerner 5, 2B Solano 2, 2B LGarcia 10, SS Gregorius 17
                              OF Cain 14, Bader 1, Daza 1

                              Comment

                              • #90
                                Well, I guess that will-the-Royals-ever-lose-again question has been answered.

                                Comment

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