2k15 First Round Fantasy Picks

[Mithrandir]

No way would I take Beltre in the first two rounds. There are enough decent 3B that i wouldn't use a pick on him that early. Stats keep declining (except avg.) and going to be 36 next season. I'm sure he will be solid in 2015, just not first two rounds solid.

How about Cespedes in Boston for a full year? Certainly not 1st round, but late 2nd? Could he put up 30 HR..100 RBI..90 Runs and hit around .275?

[Moonlight J]

How about Cespedes in Boston for a full year? Certainly not 1st round, but late 2nd? Could he put up 30 HR..100 RBI..90 Runs and hit around .275?

Since the start of last season, he's hit .251/.299/.454 over 1130 plate appearances. Also, 30 homers is really tough to do these days. Jay Jaffe has some great stuff on this today

[Mithrandir]

Since the start of last season, he's hit .251/.299/.454 over 1130 plate appearances. Also, 30 homers is really tough to do these days. Jay Jaffe has some great stuff on this today

Going to Boston won't be a factor on his statistics next year?

I found the article to be loaded with too many stats and percentages to read all the way through..although the idea of the ball being monkeyed with is interesting.

I liked this guys response to the article:

"I've been thinking the same thing - every baseball article these days reads like a clinical research paper. It's almost as if these guys are writing with the intention of auditioning to major league teams by showing off their math skills. Sometimes I wonder if these guys even watch baseball games anymore. It kind of reminds me of Trouble with the Curve (not a good movie, but go with me on this one) - the young guy is obsessed with number crunching and thinks he knows everything because his spreadsheet says so, but never actually watches anything happen.



The obvious answer to this article's thesis is PED's. The less obvious answer is that the hitters are just worse. Moneyball tactics stressed OBP, but they also stressed swinging for the fences because home runs are more valuable than singles, hence the enormous jumps in strikeout rates. Did they really think pitchers weren't going to notice and take advantage? Couple that with an increase in the number of relief pitchers that throw nothing but heat and riddle solved. One doesn't need to present a plethora of detailed percentages; one only needs watch a couple of games and watch how many bad hitters are in the game right now."

[revo]

And one more that nobody mentioned:
- Cueto
I know a lot of people question his ability to stay healthy. But, Cueto's next start will give him 30 or more in 5 of his 7 seasons. And he has 200+ ip in 2 of the last 3 seasons. That's good enough for me.

2nd rounders (again in no order):
Altuve
Strasburg
Rizzo
Encarnacion
Bautista
Cruz
Brantley
Pence
Baumgarner
Greinke
Hamilton
Dee Gordon (better numbers than Hamilton and at 2B)
Tulowitzki
Tanaka
Darvish

I think Cueto still has the "injury prone" tag, perhaps unfairly now, but I couldn't bring myself to take him in Rd 2.

I'm not paying for a Nelli Cruz performance spike when a regression seems more likely.

I can see the love for Gordon, especially if the Dodgers let Hanley walk.

I'm not convinced Tanaka pitches next year. But if he does, then we know he didn't have surgery, and I wouldn't pay a 2nd round price for a pitcher who could go down at any moment.

[DMT]

I think Cueto still has the "injury prone" tag, perhaps unfairly now, but I couldn't bring myself to take him in Rd 2.

I'm not paying for a Nelli Cruz performance spike when a regression seems more likely.

I can see the love for Gordon, especially if the Dodgers let Hanley walk.

I'm not convinced Tanaka pitches next year. But if he does, then we know he didn't have surgery, and I wouldn't pay a 2nd round price for a pitcher who could go down at any moment.

Agreed on all points.

[Grinch]

I'm not convinced Tanaka pitches next year. But if he does, then we know he didn't have surgery, and I wouldn't pay a 2nd round price for a pitcher who could go down at any moment.

At this point I have the same concern (albeit less so) with Darvish. If my 2015 draft was today no way I would feel safe taking him in the 1st or 2nd round.