The #5 Pick

[Sour Masher]

I'm with those who would take Kershaw. He's as sure a thing as there is in baseball. I can understand taking Cargo or Cano or maybe even Jones. Jones is the safest play of that trio, although he has the least upside. But Kershaw has improved every year in the league. He has been tremendously durable and reliable and consistent. He is inarguably the best pitcher in baseball. I know it is not common or advisable to take an arm in RD 1, but I think Kershaw is an exception, and I think he will be worth taking as high as #5 (although that is the earliest I'd consider taking him).

Right at pick 5 is when the rest of the hitters all have at least minor flaws or concerns, so that is right when I think taking the clear cut #1 arm who is at the peak of his skills, health and durability makes sense. I actually think it is not risky to take Kershaw at 5. I think it is conservative. If you want to be risky, go for Cargo. he might be the best hitter in the game or he might miss 1/3 of the year. That's more of a gamble to me than Kershaw.

[DMT]

If you want a high floor, take Cargo, no other hitter is even close to the potential stats that he can produce.

And I just don't think of Jones as a 1st round guy...just not enough upside for the huge stats.

Do you mean high ceiling? The floor for CarGo is he misses 1/2 the year due to various injuries. Adam Jones has a higher floor IMO. His 3-year avg: 30 HRs (33, 32, 25), 14 SBs (14, 16, 12), 90 Rs (100, 103, 68), 91 RBIs (91, 108, 82), .284 BA (.285, .287, .280). Very few outliers there, he's as consistent as it gets.

[willthethrill]

Especially in a deeper roto league, I'm going with a 5-category hitter, so I voted CarGo. I definitely would consider Jones, and at the first sign of a CarGo muscle strain, I'll probably change my vote, but CarGo, if he plays 150 games, could be top-3 easily.

I really like Kershaw (who doesn't), but pitching just seems so deep this year.

[Hornsby]

Do you mean high ceiling? The floor for CarGo is he misses 1/2 the year due to various injuries. Adam Jones has a higher floor IMO. His 3-year avg: 30 HRs (33, 32, 25), 14 SBs (14, 16, 12), 90 Rs (100, 103, 68), 91 RBIs (91, 108, 82), .284 BA (.285, .287, .280). Very few outliers there, he's as consistent as it gets.

No, I did mean high floor...even if he does miss a significant amount of time, he'll still outproduce most of the players in the game. He missed 52 games last year and still hit 26 homers, stole 21 bases and hit over .300. He scored 72 runs and drove in 70...

Adam Jones, in 50 more games, had his career year, and still hit only 7 more homers and stole 7 less bases than Cargo...his RBI and runs were significantly higher, as is to be expected with 50 extra games worth of counting stats.

Cargo is a BOOM or small boom kind of player, and I'll take the chance every time that he'll play 150 games.

[Sour Masher]

I'm with Horns in a shallower league, but the deeper the league, the more of a risk Cargo becomes. I'm not sure how deep this league is, but replacement level can get pretty low in a 20 teamer. Still, I totally get going with Cargo's upside at pick 5. I just think Kershaw is the safer pick in a deep league, even with the depth at SP. Of course, if you go Kershaw at pick 5, you would really need to go hitter heavy for the next few rounds.

[DMT]

No, I did mean high floor...even if he does miss a significant amount of time, he'll still outproduce most of the players in the game. He missed 52 games last year and still hit 26 homers, stole 21 bases and hit over .300. He scored 72 runs and drove in 70...

Adam Jones, in 50 more games, had his career year, and still hit only 7 more homers and stole 7 less bases than Cargo...his RBI and runs were significantly higher, as is to be expected with 50 extra games worth of counting stats.

Cargo is a BOOM or small boom kind of player, and I'll take the chance every time that he'll play 150 games.

I'm not disagreeing on CarGo, I took him at 7 in mock one so I like him over everyone in the poll except Jones. He's obviously the better player when healthy, but his injury history can't be ignored. It doesn't matter why Jones got the higher Rs/RBIs, but the difference is significant.