I'm with those who would take Kershaw. He's as sure a thing as there is in baseball. I can understand taking Cargo or Cano or maybe even Jones. Jones is the safest play of that trio, although he has the least upside. But Kershaw has improved every year in the league. He has been tremendously durable and reliable and consistent. He is inarguably the best pitcher in baseball. I know it is not common or advisable to take an arm in RD 1, but I think Kershaw is an exception, and I think he will be worth taking as high as #5 (although that is the earliest I'd consider taking him).
Right at pick 5 is when the rest of the hitters all have at least minor flaws or concerns, so that is right when I think taking the clear cut #1 arm who is at the peak of his skills, health and durability makes sense. I actually think it is not risky to take Kershaw at 5. I think it is conservative. If you want to be risky, go for Cargo. he might be the best hitter in the game or he might miss 1/3 of the year. That's more of a gamble to me than Kershaw.
Right at pick 5 is when the rest of the hitters all have at least minor flaws or concerns, so that is right when I think taking the clear cut #1 arm who is at the peak of his skills, health and durability makes sense. I actually think it is not risky to take Kershaw at 5. I think it is conservative. If you want to be risky, go for Cargo. he might be the best hitter in the game or he might miss 1/3 of the year. That's more of a gamble to me than Kershaw.
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