After shocking the baseball world by signing with the Mariners -- after all, you can count on one hand the times the Yanks have lost a superstar in free agency -- Cano enters 2014 with some questions he hasn't normally had associated with him.
- Will his stats suffer in Safeco?
He has a career .309/.355/.504 slashline, which is shockingly similar to his slashline in the 40 games he's played in Safeco (.309/.350/.484). He does only have 4 career HRs there in 161 ABs, and that's the rub -- how much will Yankee Stadium's short RF porch cost him? He has a 19.29 AB/HR career rate in the new Yankee Stadium compared to a 38.0 AB/HR rate in Safeco. You'd have to assume the Safeco number comes down a bit, and if it drops to 25-30 AB/HR, you're looking at 10-12 HRs at his new home park. By way of comparison, Cano only hit 11 HRs at Yankee Stadium last season in 295 ABs, compared to 16 on the road. If his road AB/HR stays the same, then his HR totals really won't suffer much at all, it seems.
- Should we be afraid of players who signed mega-contracts in their 1st year?
The number of vets who signed massive contracts this decade and disappointed have littered the landscape, some worse than others. Let's take a look at the Top 25 largest contracts signed by position players since 2010 (ranked by contract size):
Pujols, 2012: -10 OPS+ drop
Votto, 2011: -16 OPS+ drop
Fielder, 2012: -13 OPS+ drop
Mauer, 2011: -38 OPS+ drop
Posey, 2013: -38 OPS+ drop
Kemp, 2012: -25 OPS+ drop
Tulowitzki, 2011: -7 OPS+ drop
A. Gonzalez, 2012: -38 OPS+ drop
Crawford, 2011: -50 OPS+ drop
Not a single player improved his performance in the first year, which is pretty shocking. The average decline was -26 OPS+. If Cano were to suffer a similar drop in performance, he would have an OPS+ of 119 -- not terrible, but not 1st round worthy given his lack of speed. His new teammate, Kyle Seager, had an OPS+ last season of 118. Given complaints about his lack of hustle, what is motivating Cano this season?
- The M's lineup is a far cry from the Yankees lineup.
Perhaps this year, but certainly not last season, when the Yanks finished 85-77 and trotted out a lineup reminiscent of the Kevin Maas/Andy Stankiewicz Yankees of the early 1990s. Cano's BA, HRs and RBIs did not suffer, but his Runs Scored dipped by 20%. I think the Mariners' lineup this season is much better than the Yankees lineup last season, but it remains to be seen if the runs will improve greatly.
I think the Safeco move is a bit overblown, but the impact of the lack of motivation associated with the 1st year contract status may hurt his value. I'll go with a mild underperformance of .304/90/24/95.
- Will his stats suffer in Safeco?
He has a career .309/.355/.504 slashline, which is shockingly similar to his slashline in the 40 games he's played in Safeco (.309/.350/.484). He does only have 4 career HRs there in 161 ABs, and that's the rub -- how much will Yankee Stadium's short RF porch cost him? He has a 19.29 AB/HR career rate in the new Yankee Stadium compared to a 38.0 AB/HR rate in Safeco. You'd have to assume the Safeco number comes down a bit, and if it drops to 25-30 AB/HR, you're looking at 10-12 HRs at his new home park. By way of comparison, Cano only hit 11 HRs at Yankee Stadium last season in 295 ABs, compared to 16 on the road. If his road AB/HR stays the same, then his HR totals really won't suffer much at all, it seems.
- Should we be afraid of players who signed mega-contracts in their 1st year?
The number of vets who signed massive contracts this decade and disappointed have littered the landscape, some worse than others. Let's take a look at the Top 25 largest contracts signed by position players since 2010 (ranked by contract size):
Pujols, 2012: -10 OPS+ drop
Votto, 2011: -16 OPS+ drop
Fielder, 2012: -13 OPS+ drop
Mauer, 2011: -38 OPS+ drop
Posey, 2013: -38 OPS+ drop
Kemp, 2012: -25 OPS+ drop
Tulowitzki, 2011: -7 OPS+ drop
A. Gonzalez, 2012: -38 OPS+ drop
Crawford, 2011: -50 OPS+ drop
Not a single player improved his performance in the first year, which is pretty shocking. The average decline was -26 OPS+. If Cano were to suffer a similar drop in performance, he would have an OPS+ of 119 -- not terrible, but not 1st round worthy given his lack of speed. His new teammate, Kyle Seager, had an OPS+ last season of 118. Given complaints about his lack of hustle, what is motivating Cano this season?
- The M's lineup is a far cry from the Yankees lineup.
Perhaps this year, but certainly not last season, when the Yanks finished 85-77 and trotted out a lineup reminiscent of the Kevin Maas/Andy Stankiewicz Yankees of the early 1990s. Cano's BA, HRs and RBIs did not suffer, but his Runs Scored dipped by 20%. I think the Mariners' lineup this season is much better than the Yankees lineup last season, but it remains to be seen if the runs will improve greatly.
I think the Safeco move is a bit overblown, but the impact of the lack of motivation associated with the 1st year contract status may hurt his value. I'll go with a mild underperformance of .304/90/24/95.
Comment